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Radio France Internationale
Radio France Internationale
World
RFI

Conclave: who are the likely contenders to succeed Pope Francis?

A cardinal of the Catholic Church. AP - Andrew Medichini

Vatican – With the conclave to elect the new pope beginning in Vatican City on Wednesday, following the death of Francis I on 21 April, we look at the contenders from around the world to succeed him and become the 267th pope.

The conclave will see 133 cardinals from 71 countries – all of them under 80, the upper age limit for voting – gather in the Sistine Chapel to elect the new pope, head of the Catholic Church and leader of the world's 1.4 billion Catholic faithful.

In theory any baptised male Catholic can be elected as pope, but the last time a non-cardinal was picked was Pope Urban VI in 1378.

The Vatican does not release a list of candidates and there is no official campaigning allowed, so speculation about who will succeed Pope Francis remains just that – speculation.

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Francis was a pope of many firsts – the first Jesuit pope, the first from the Americas, and the Southern Hemisphere. Will we see another first – perhaps an African pope? Or will France see its first pope since Pope Gregory XI, who reigned from 1370 to 1378?

Who are the contenders, the so-called “papabili” – an unofficial term for eligible cardinals coined by Vatican journalists – to succeed Pope Francis?

Europe

Observers – and bookies – see 70-year-old Italian Pietro Parolin as the front runner.

The Vatican's secretary of state under Pope Francis, effectively the deputy pope, he is known for his diplomacy and a global outlook, as well as his sense of humour.

A polyglot, he also has a fine grasp of the intricacies of the Roman Curia, the Holy See's central government, and was part of a group of cardinal advisers to Pope Francis.

Other Italians in the frame include the Franciscan Pierbattista Pizzaballa. Ordained aged 25, he has lived in Jerusalem ever since. As the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, he is the highest-ranking Catholic in the Middle East, with an archdiocese encompassing Israel, the Palestinian territories, Jordan and Cyprus.

He was made a cardinal in September 2023, shortly before the war broke out between Israel and Hamas and has appealed for peace from both sides. At Christmas in 2024 he led mass in both Gaza and Jerusalem.

At 60, however, his relatively young age could go against him.

Matteo Maria Zuppi, 70, is the Archbishop of Bologna, and is known for riding his bike around the city. Zuppi is a popular figure for his work on behalf of the poor, and he has also advocated for welcoming migrants and gay Catholics into the Church.

Zuppi has acted as a discreet diplomat for the Vatican for more than three decades, including serving as Pope Francis's special peace envoy for Ukraine.

Claudio Gugerotti, 69, is an academic and multi-lingual diplomat hailing from Verona. An expert on the Eastern Churches, he has served as ambassador of the Holy See in Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus and Ukraine.

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Representing French hopes is Jean-Marc Aveline, the Archbishop of Marseille.

Born in Algeria, the 66-year-old has spent most of his life in the French port city. Like his close friend Pope Francis, he has been a voice for welcoming migrants and promoting dialogue between faiths, and is known for his people skills.

The Bishop of Stockholm, Anders Arborelius, is unique among the contenders as a convert to Catholicism.

Appointed in 2017, he is the first Swedish Catholic bishop since the Protestant Reformation, his predecessors having been named from other countries due to a dearth of home-grown Catholic priests in predominantly Lutheran Sweden. The country is home to around 128,000 Catholics, or about 1.6 percent of the population.

Echoing the views of Pope Francis, Arborelius advocates welcoming migrants to Europe, acknowledging that migrants from Catholic countries have helped the Church to grow and saying in 2018: "The Catholic Church in Sweden is a Church of migrants."

The 75-year-old has also said that he is "highly unlikely" to be elected as the successor to Pope Francis.

Mario Grech, 68, is Bishop Emeritus of Gozo, Malta. Born in a small village on the tiny Mediterranean archipelago, he is known as a peace broker.

He was secretary-general of the Synod of Bishops, which gathers information from local churches on issues for the Church – such as the place of women or remarried divorcees – and passes it on to the pope.

For Grech this required a delicate balancing act, following Pope Francis's lead on creating an open Church while acknowledging concerns in conservative Malta.

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Peter Erdo, the Archbishop of Budapest and Primate of Hungary, was part of the conclave that elected Francis and Pope Benedict before him

The 72-year-old grew up Catholic under Communism and is known for his enthusiasm for evangelism.

A respected expert in canon law, Erdo speaks seven languages, has published more than 25 books and is recognised for his openness to other religions.

But he has faced criticism for his ties with the government of Hungary's nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose harsh views on migration clashed with those of the late pope.

A Jesuit like Francis, the Archbishop of Luxembourg Jean-Claude Hollerich, 66, spent more than 20 years in Japan, and is a specialist in European-Asian cultural relations.

Firm on dogma, Hollerich is still open to the need for the Church to adapt to societal changes. He has advocated for the environment and has pushed for laypeople, especially young people, to have more involvement in the Church.

Africa

Vatican-based Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson, 76, was the first Ghanaian cardinal, appointed in 2003, and is being widely talked about as a possible first black pope.

A guitarist who played in a funk band, he opposes the criminalisation of gay relationships seen in some African countries but defends Catholic sexual morality and has denied that homosexuality is a human rights issue.

Turkson, who is multi-lingual, served from 2016 to 2021 as head of the Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development, which deals with human rights and migration, and has been a papal envoy and mediator, including in South Sudan.

Pope Francis' special, sometimes conflictual, relationship with Africa

Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, a 65-year-old from the Democratic Republic of Congo, was appointed Archbishop of Kinshasa by Francis and is also president of the African bishops' conference. In a 2023 interview, he proclaimed that: "Africa is the future of the Church, it's obvious."

An outspoken conservative, he opposes blessings for those in same-sex marriages (introduced by Francis) and in 2024 led a successful push for an African exemption on allowing these.

Born in 1960, the year of DRC's independence from Belgium, he has been a strong voice for peace in his conflict-ridden country.

Robert Sarah, 79, from Guinea, is a traditionalist who was opposed to many of Francis's reforms. An advocate of traditional liturgy and doctrine, he has been championed by conservative Catholics in the French-speaking world as a candidate who will turn the clock back on progressive reforms.

As an ardent opponent of what he in 2015 called "Western ideologies on homosexuality and abortion and Islamic fanaticism", experts believe his views make him too conservative to win a two-thirds majority at the conclave.

Asia

Filipino Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle, 67, is the bookies' second favourite to win the election – and would become the first Asian pope if he does.

Known as the "karaoke cardinal" thanks to his penchant for a singalong, he is seen as a candidate who would carry on Francis's legacy of warmth and openness, and has similarly prioritised migrants, and the poor and marginalised of society.

He has been unafraid to criticise the Church for its shortcomings, including over the sexual abuse of minors, and is active on social media, an outlet for his self-deprecating humour.

Myanmar-born Charles Maung Bo 76, the Archbishop of Yangon, became the Buddhist-majority country's first and only cardinal in 2015, appointed by Pope Francis.

Bo has called for dialogue and reconciliation in conflict-ridden Myanmar, and after the military coup of 2021 appealed to opposition protesters to remain non-violent.

He has defended the mainly Muslim Rohingya, calling them victims of "ethnic cleansing", and spoken out against human trafficking and its devastating effect on the lives of many young Burmese.

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The Americas

Timothy Dolan, 75, is the Archbishop of New York, and previously held the post in Milwaukee, where he oversaw the fallout from a major sexual abuse scandal in that diocese.

An extrovert with Irish-American roots, Dolan has reached out to embrace New York's growing Hispanic population, which is predominantly Catholic, amid shrinking Church membership.

Two Canadians are also being talked about as candidates: the conservative but forward-looking Marc Ouellet, who was also seen as a potential pope in 2005 and 2013, and Jesuit Michael Czerny, who was appointed by Pope Francis – the two men were close and Czerny is seen as similarly progressive.

Robert Francis Prevost, a native of Chicago, worked as a missionary in Peru for several years and is the Archbishop-Bishop emeritus of Chiclayo in the South American country. Made a cardinal by Pope Francis in 2023, he is also the president of the Pontifical Commission for Latin America.

Known as a reformer, at 69 he is seen by some observers as too young for the papacy.

(with newswires)

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