With less than a year to go until the FIFA World Cup 2026 on North American soil, this summer’s Concacaf Gold Cup holds extra importance, with the host looking to lift a trophy in their final competitive matches ahead of the 48-team tournament.
That emphasis, though, has only resonated with some teams, creating one of the more intriguing setups in recent Gold Cup history. Some usual contenders, such as the U.S. men's national team, approach the tournament with a heavily rotated squad. Meanwhile, nations like Canada and Mexico were able to call on top players from Europe to play this summer.
At the same time, emerging countries like Suriname and Curaçao could pose threats, while Saudi Arabia enters as a guest team with plenty of World Cup experience.
With the tournament set to kick off on July 14, here’s how Sports Illustrated sees things potentially playing out.
Sports Illustrated’s 2025 Concacaf Gold Cup Predictions
Group A: It's Mexico's to Lose
Placings
- Mexico
- Costa Rica
- Suriname
- Dominican Republic
Mexico enters the Gold Cup as the last Concacaf team to win a title, having captured the Concacaf Nations League in March with a victory over Panama.
While they will miss some players due to the FIFA Club World Cup, they still come with a strong roster, led by the attacking pair of Fulham’s Raul Jiménez and AC Milan’s Santiago Giménez.
Additionally, they could rotate their squad with Cruz Azul’s Angel Sepúlveda back in the lineup, after winning the Concacaf Champions Cup Golden Boot and scoring 23 goals across all competitions this season.
Costa Rica remains a veteran squad and has done well in World Cup qualifying so far, led by NYCFC striker Alonso Martinez and should be able to come away with the second spot in the group.
The Dominican Republic are the likely fourth-place finisher here, given the top talents available on the other three teams.
Group B: Nobody Wants the Win More than Canada
Placings
- Canada
- Curacao
- Honduras
- El Salvador
Canada come into this summer’s Gold Cup as favorites and will look to dominate their way through Group B action. With their first home World Cup a year away, head coach Jesse Marsch has convinced all his top players to commit to winning a trophy in 2025, leaving only Alphonso Davies and Moise Bombito off the roster due to injury.
While Jonathan David is the most in-form striker in Concacaf, all eyes will be fixated on Canada’s secondary striker position, which could fall to Promise David. He bagged 19 goals in 34 games, helping Royal Union Saint-Gilloise win their first Belgian league title in 93 years.
Canada has had a strong run of recent results, beating the USMNT, Ukraine, and Côte d’Ivoire in their last three games, and will be hopeful of securing a trophy this summer, after opening the tournament in Vancouver.
While Honduras might be the traditional second-place team in the group, Curacao comes into this tournament on the rise and should be able to pull off results against Honduras and El Salvador, powered by veteran goalkeeper Eloy Room and several players currently playing in the Eredivisie.
Honduras and El Salvador will still provide a strong test, but it could be Curacao’s time to make a big move in Concacaf.
Group C: Panama Look to Carry Nations League Momentum
Placings
- Panama
- Jamaica
- Guatemala
- Guadeloupe
Panama are brimming with confidence after eliminating the USMNT from the Nations League and providing a stern test for Mexico in the final. With head coach Thomas Christiansen on the sideline as well, they also have an identity and consistency that few other sides have.
Look for San Diego FC midfielder Aníbal Godoy to continue the strong form he showed at the Nations League and in MLS this season, as well as defender Michael Murillo who played 30 games as a regular right back for Marseille in Ligue 1.
They will, however, be missing Adalberto Carrasquilla, potentially opening up this group more than it would have been otherwise.
Jamaica could also emerge as winners in this group and match up with Panama on Matchday 3 in a likely winner-take-all match for first place in the group.
The Reggae Boyz feature a squad with West Ham’s Michael Antonio, Leicester City’s Bobby Reid, Newcastle’s Isaac Hayden and Aston Villa’s Leon Bailey, allowing them to have depth and quality, despite some recent worries in Concacaf Gold Cup qualifying.
Guatemala and Guadeloupe will find it tough to find a result in one of the more top-heavy groups in the Gold Cup.
Group D: The USMNT Look to Avoid a Slip-Up
Placings
- Saudi Arabia
- USMNT
- Trinidad and Tobago
- Haiti
The USMNT are the overwhelming favorites in the group and are likely to finish third, behind Canada and Mexico, in the tournament overall. However, with recent struggles under head coach Mauricio Pochettino, a slip-up against one of the lesser teams is highly plausible, potentially opening the door for Saudi Arabia to surprise as group winners given their experience at the World Cup.
The Americans will be without most of their European stars including Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie and Folarin Balogun, and instead turn to 16 MLS players to carry the load of expectation at the tournament.
Look for Vancouver Whitecaps FC striker Brian White to carry his form, which includes 10 goals in MLS, into the national team. Real Salt Lake’s Diego Luna, as well as Houston Dynamo midfielder Jack McGlynn are also expected to be in the spotlight.
At the same time, the U.S. does have some European-based talent, should AFC Bournemouth’s Tyler Adams be able to return from injury, and if Real Betis’s Johnny Cardoso can find form after a rough showing in a friendly loss to Turkey.
Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, will rely on their tournament experience and the unfamiliarity it brings to the group. At the same time, Trinidad and Tobago could also challenge, given their talents, including MLS and Canadian Premier League standouts such as Atlanta United’s Ajani Fortune, Halifax Wanderers’ Andre Rampersad, and York United’s Steffen Yeates.
Haiti is likely to finish on the bottom, but has always shown the ability to throw a surprise in at the Gold Cup, like when they knocked an up-and-coming Canada out in the quarterfinals in 2019.
Concacaf Gold Cup Quarterfinal Predictions
QF1: Saudi Arabia (1D) vs. Suriname (2A)
Prediction: Suriname def. Saudi Arabia
It will be a massive run for either team if they can make it to this matchup, and Suriname will want to prove to themselves that they are among the biggest teams in Concacaf. No doubt, they will also have the rest of the region pulling for them against the guest team.
QF2: Mexico (1A) vs. USMNT (2D)
Prediction: USMNT def. Mexico
The matchup nobody wants to see in the Gold Cup quarterfinals would be possible if the U.S. slips up at any point in the group stage. It would be the most “must-not-lose” match in recent history for both nations, and an outright failure for each if they were to fall short of the Gold Cup semifinal.
QF3: Panama (1C) vs. Curacao (2B)
Prediction: Panama def. Curacao
Even without Carrasquilla, Panama should be a contender at this summer’s Gold Cup. Curacao would pose a threatening opponent in a semifinal, but with the form Panama has enjoyed over the last few windows, advancing to the semifinal seems like a legitimate possibility.
QF4: Canada (1B) vs. Jamaica (2C)
Prediction: Canada def. Jamaica
Canada is enjoying some of their best form and has proved to the world that it can compete at tournaments, as evidenced by a run to the semifinals of the Copa América last summer. After Marsch stated that it would be a “failure” not to win the Gold Cup, they came in as one of the most determined teams.
At the same time, the top-choice squad makes them a true favorite in the competition.
Concacaf Gold Cup Semifinal Predictions
SF1: Suriname vs. Canada
Prediction: Canada def. Suriname
Canada knocked off Suriname with relative ease in the 2024 Nations League and should be able to do the same at the Gold Cup, should they meet up in the semifinal. At this point, Canada could also be welcoming back midfielder Stephen Eustáquio from FIFA Club World Cup duties with FC Porto.
It’s Canada’s time at the Gold Cup, and they have the skill and depth to contend among the tournament’s best.
SF2: USMNT vs. Panama
Prediction: USMNT def. Panama
The USMNT need revenge against Panama after the Nations League semifinals, and despite missing several key European superstars, should be able to secure it. Carrasquilla has been critical for Panama in these matchups, and without him, Panama won’t be able to threaten Pochettino’s side as much.
Despite it all... the USMNT are back in the Gold Cup Final.
Concacaf Gold Cup Final Prediction: Canada vs. USMNT
Prediction: Canada def. USMNT
The Canadian men’s national team has been seeking their crowning moment in Concacaf and a first trophy since 2000, and things could be lining up for it all to come together one year out from the North American-hosted World Cup.
With Tajon Buchanan, Jonathan David, Promise David, and Ismael Koné, Canada have immense depth against the USMNT this time out, and should be able to handle them as they did in the Nations League third-place match.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Concacaf Gold Cup Predictions: Full Tournament Breakdown for USMNT, Mexico, Canada.
