We all know that Mitt Romney is going to win the Florida GOP primary against Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum – because all the polls and the experts tell us. But will he? And if so, by how much?
Here's your chance to pick the order in which the four major candidates finish – and win some genuine 2012 campaign memorabilia that can handed down from generation to generation and sold on eBay.
In the comments section below, simply list from one to four the order in which you think the following candidates will finish: Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum.
As a tie-breaker, include the winning candidate's share of the vote in percentage points. So if you think Mitt Romney will win, include the vote share you think he will receive when all the votes have been counted: for example 35%.
The deadline for entries is 8pm ET on Tuesday, 31 January when polls close in the state. (Polls in Florida close at 7pm local time – with the Panhandle of Florida in a later time zone, hence the 8pm ET official finish.)
The entry that most accurately picks the finishing order and comes closest to the winning margin will be judged to be the winner. In the event of a tie we'll think of something.
To enter you will have to be logged onto the Guardian's website. Multiple entries are not allowed – only a user's last entry will be counted.
The prizes include some choice pieces of primary campaign memorabilia, including a "Newt 2012" t-shirt (size medium) – made with pride in Honduras (fact) – and a "Don't believe the liberal media!" sign and bumper sticker, as well as a C-Span "Road to the White House 2012" luggage tag.
To help you decide, here's some background to help from Cif America polling analyst Harry Enten – and here are some forecasts:
• The RealClearPolitics polling average has Mitt Romney on 42%, Newt Gingrich on 29%, Rick Santorum on 13% and Ron Paul on 10%
• The Huffington Post's Mark Blumenthal has Romney on 42%, Gingrich on 28%, Santorum on 12% and Ron Paul on 11%
• The New York Times's 538 blog has Romney on 44%, Gingrich on 29%, Santorum on 12% and Ron Paul on 11%
To kick things off here is my go at picking Florida's winners and losers:
1. Mitt Romney
2. Newt Gingrich
3. Rick Santorum
4. Ron Paul
Tiebreak - Romney's winning vote share: 40%
Ladies and gentlemen, start your predictions now.
