Predictions of radio's demise have been greatly exaggerated, according to one of commercial radio's most senior figures.
In a bullish prediction of the medium's future today, RadioCentre chief executive Andrew Harrison forecast a 50% share of listening for commercial radio and a 7% share of display advertising, up from 43.6% and 6.1% today. Is he right?
Radio was the fastest growing advertising medium in the '90s, but it has been a tough few years for commercial broadcasters who have seen revenue plummet and the BBC Radio's ratings lead grow to record levels.
But Mr Harrison says the next few years will be different, starting today. So what is he so optimistic about?
Digital - by the time of TV analogue switch off in 2012, all homes will have access to digital radio, many of them from several different sources (TV, digital radio, online etc) and commercial stations are more popular on digital than they are on analogue.
The licence fee settlement - the BBC got more than £1bn less than it asked for, and commercial radio "played its role in driving a more realistic BBC settlement".
Demographics - young listeners prefer commercial radio, with a 55% share among 15 to 54-year-olds. The BBC only has a bigger overall share because older listeners like it.
Convergence - radio is the only medium that works across all digital devices - TV, online, MP3 players, phones, in-car... and people can listen to it while using other digital media.
Reach - An example. Chrysalis's dance station Galaxy has 2.2m listeners who tune in for 7.5 hours a week. Among the same 12m people that can listen to Galaxy, only 1m people regularly use MySpace, and only for 1 hour 23 minutes a week.
The web - online sites like lastfm.com get plenty of publicity, but it has 300,000 unique users a month, less than 1% of commercial radio's 40m-plus listeners a month.
Networked shows - commercial radio is working on more "sub-network" shows which can be broadcast on stations across the country, like the hit40UK chart.
Advertising - unlike TV, radio will not be affected by Ofcom's junk food ad ban
RADIO - no, not the wireless, but an acronym for the RadioCentre's top five priorities as part of commercial radio's new three-year plan. It stands for Revenue, Audience, Digital, Influence, Organisation.
"Radio in the UK is in rude good health - almost 90% of the population consume us for an average of almost 24 hours a week each," says Mr Harrison. "Just think again about those numbers - 90% of homes listening for an average of 1 day/week - wow! - our reach alone at 90% is half as big again as internet penetration at 60%
"And listeners love their radio stations - we all describe ourselves as Minster FM listeners or Key 103 listeners...we all remember when we've heard a request or had a mention on the radio.
"It's also worth reminding ourselves up front that, despite the press stories, commercial radio in the UK is in good shape - we dominate listening all the way up to pensionable age! Our 15-54 market share is over 55%, and the only reason the BBC wins overall right now is because The Beeb of course has the lion's share of listening amongst older listeners, and particularly those over 65 where they enjoy a 75% share - and those listeners record.
"Our target to deliver 7% share of display advertising revenue - up from 6.1% right now - looks ambitious....but only 3 years ago, in 2003, we had as much as a 6.8% share - so our plan is really to recover in the next three years what we have lost in the last three years. If we do so the prize will be big - moving industry revenues from just under £600M to over £700M."
