Southern California sweated out record-setting triple-digit temperatures in July in places ranging from downtown Los Angeles to Santa Ana. That's Inland Empire heat in the L.A. Basin.
And 2018 is on track to be one of the hottest years since record-keeping began in 1880, fitting in with the past four years � 2016 was the warmest year, 2015 the second-warmest, followed by 2017 and 2014. And 2016 was an El Nino year, as this year might prove to be (70 percent chance by winter) _ El Ninos put upward pressure on temperatures.
And now scientists are using a new probability formula say the next five years will likely be "anomalously warm."
Oh, goodie.
"For 2018-2022, the probabilistic forecast indicates a warmer than normal period, with respect to the forced trend," according to an abstract of the report in the peer-reviewed Nature Communications journal. "This will temporarily reinforce the long-term global warming trend. The coming warm period is associated with an increased likelihood of intense to extreme temperatures."
Global warming is tracked over longer time spans than a year, since temperatures are variable in the short term. And the long-term trends have seen increasingly warmer temperatures that have melted glaciers, reduced ice caps at the poles and Greenland, and altered surface weather patterns � witness California droughts and unusually intense hurricanes.
And yes, experts say we can't link global warming to specific weather events � we get hurricanes in the summer and fall, and drought and floods occur regularly. But experts also warn that global warming leads to more such weather extremes, which in turn can make certain local environments less habitable for native plants and animals. A warming and acidifying ocean destroys coral reefs. Extended droughts in western mountains kill trees either outright or by making them more vulnerable to bark beetles and other fatal pests.
And then there's the Arctic, which has seen astoundingly high temperatures for what is usually a frozen world. While some areas remained deeply cold, other places saw temperatures 43 degrees warmer than usual � and above freezing for several consecutive days. The maximum reach of the ice cap � which grows in winter and shrinks in summer � was near record lows, a function, according to one theory, of climate change altering the flow of the jet stream.
As more of the Arctic goes ice-free, more heat is released into the atmosphere, which exacerbates the impact on the ice itself. Meanwhile, warmer temperatures in the land areas north of the Arctic Circle threaten to release mass amounts of greenhouse gases methane and carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. And so we get into a feedback loop as warmer temperatures _ propelled by humans burning fossil fuels _ lead to the release of more gases that then feed warmer temperatures.
Not that it matters, at least to the Earth. It will survive, even if we don't.
