First, the bad news. If you are trying to time a purchase for when house prices and mortgage rates are both at their lowest, you’re likely to end up with some form of buyer’s remorse.
Either rates will fall further after you've locked in to a five-year fix, or house prices will.
Or the Government will unleash a tax break to stimulate the market, which will make you look at your fully paid up stamp duty bill in dismay.
Just ask the experts, among whom there is an unusual lack of consensus.
This week Knight Frank switched its house-price forecast for 2024 from a four per cent fall to a three per cent rise now interest rates seem to be settling.
Rival estate agent, Savills, is sticking with its previous estimate of a four per cent drop, citing affordability constraints, the economic outlook and the election. Others have taken different positions still.
What does this mean for you?
If you can, now does seem like a good time to buy, as prices stay soft, mortgage rates begin to settle and there is less competition from other buyers.
It’s especially so if you remember that, first and foremost, you’re buying somewhere to live, not investing in a supercharged savings account.
The thought of losing money is scary, so look at longevity, rather than assuming you’ll sell any old one-bed at a vast profit within three years, just because it’s somewhere in the vicinity of London. Those days are over.
And remember, even if prices fall further, it’s not real money unless you’re trying to sell.
Even if the return on investment isn’t what it once was, first-time buyers are unlikely to regret escaping the toxic rental market and putting that money into a stable home instead.
Everyone dreams of making a quick buck with minimal effort but London property is probably not the place to do it now. This is not a bad thing.
Speculating on rampant house price growth benefited a few greatly, but has created a hellish housing landscape for the rest.
If 2024 is the year we lower our expectations around this likelihood, so much the better.
