IN his chattier, less careworn days António Horta-Osório liked to make economic predictions. “Since I am not an economist,” he would chirp, “I do have at least a chance of being right.”
These days the Lloyds Bank boss leaves this sort of thing to his finance director, former Morgan Stanley man William Chalmers (a likely successor when AHO stands down, say some).
Chalmers slightly has the air of a doctor delivering very bad news, at least today.
Lloyds has four models for the future of the economy: a base case, an upside case, a downside case and a severe downside case.
Even the base case is bad for blood pressures; GDP will fall 10%, unemployment will peak at 9% and the recovery next year will be “modest” at best.
The upside case is not an awful lot better. The severe downside case is grim. (If you are on medication look away now). GDP will plunge 17% and unemployment will race past 12%.
Lloyds comes through this scenario relatively ok, but many of the rest of us do not.
The bank says that there are signs lately of some recovery, but it is not in (m)any of the numbers Lloyds presents today.
Since Lloyds is so big, it is a reasonable barometer of where the UK economy stands and where it might be going.
William Chalmers is an economist. Which offers some hope that he is reading this all wrong.
