The Indianapolis Colts are heading into Week 17 as the No. 7 seed in the AFC playoff picture. They will be facing a Las Vegas Raiders team that has put themselves back in the playoff hunt with their two-game winning streak they are riding into this matchup.
These two franchises have played each other seven times since 2013 with the Colts winning four of the meetings. But the last time Indianapolis beat the Raiders at home came on Sept. 8, 2013.
This is basically a win-or-go-home contest for both teams because a loss this Sunday would significantly hurt their chances of cracking into the postseason in Week 18.
Here are five things to watch for when they kickoff in Lucas Oil Stadium this weekend:
1
Is this the Jonathan Taylor game?
This has easily been the weirdest season for Jonathan Taylor’s career with the Colts. After missing the start of the season because of his ankle injury and a contentious contract negotiation, Taylor started to get things rolling before he needed thumb surgery that knocked him out for a few weeks.
It wasn’t a great day for Taylor in his first game back from thumb surgery. He only managed 43 yards on 18 attempts. While he did his best with the little room he had to work with, the offensive line and the backfield as a whole can’t repeat that performance against the Raiders.
Taylor has had some good games this season but only has one game over 100 total yards and hasn’t had a game where he’s finished over 100 rushing yards. With the context that he has been splitting touches with Zack Moss, that’s not a knock against Taylor but with the playoffs on the line, Indianapolis needs their star player to takeover a matchup.
History is in favor of Taylor. In three career games against Las Vegas, Taylor averages 135.0 rushing YPG & 12.3 receiving YPG. He has gone over 145 rushing yards in two of the three games and has scored four touchdowns.
Just how the play was drawn up. The blocking was perfectly executed, and Jonathan Taylor does the rest to take it 66 yards to the house. pic.twitter.com/FswE7Tai85
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) November 15, 2022
The Raiders are allowing 122.2 rushing YPG, the 11th most in the NFL. These are the games on why the Colts gave Taylor his contract. Indy wins this if JT can dominate this contest.
2
New starting safety tandem
The Colts got hit with some unfortunate news this week. Julian Blackmon was placed on IR with a shoulder injury that more than likely ends his season. There is a chance he could return in the playoffs but he has to miss at least the next four games so that would mean Indianapolis makes the AFC Championship Game if we see Blackmon on the field again.
This was disappointing news for Blackmon because he was having the best season in his career and is in a contract year. For the Indy defense, that means Gus Bradley will have a pair of second-year safeties in the backend of his secondary going forward.
Rodney Thomas II has started 25 games for the Colts and offers the most experience but his play this season has been a mixed bag. He’s had his moments with missed tackles and coverage issues which had led to explosive plays through the air.
Depending on how his last two games go, his numbers will be career lows compared to his rookie season. The last impact play from Thomas II was his game-sealing interception against the New England Patriots.
Rodney Thomas II read Bailey Zappe the whole way for his game-sealing interception for the #Colts pic.twitter.com/5AeDy8xmty
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) November 14, 2023
The good news is that Nick Cross isn’t getting thrown into the fire. After seeing no more than 8% of the defensive snaps in the first eleven games, Cross saw more playing time over the last four games.
He’s coming off a career-high playing in 86% of the defensive snaps against the Atlanta Falcons. Cross finished with six tackles (four solo) and registered his first career TFL.
His best play in the last four weeks was easily his moss interception over George Pickens.
First takeaway by the #Colts. Nick Cross playing centerfielder, reads George Pickens' route the whole way and goes up to pluck the ball away for his first career interception. pic.twitter.com/qU6THTqckf
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) December 17, 2023
The Raiders have a passing attack that features Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Hunter Renfrow, and an emerging Tre Tucker. Communication between the second-year safeties has to be dialed in and limit any explosive plays through the air by Las Vegas.
3
Limit Maxx Crosby's impact
The Colts have seen several disrupting edge rushers this season like Myles Garrett and T.J. Watt and this week they have Maxx Crosby on deck. The leader of the Las Vegas defense is having the best season of his career. Crosby has already set a career-high with 13.5 sacks.
He’s nine tackles away from a career-high in total tackles and just needs three TFLs in the last two weeks to top his previous high. Crosby had an impact on the Raiders slowing down the Kansas City Chiefs offense in their road upset on Christmas.
Watch Malcolm Koonce/Maxx Crosby on this rep.
Game changers vs. KC. pic.twitter.com/UIAJi8oEAv
— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) December 26, 2023
After last week’s disappointing performance across the offensive line, especially by Blake Freeland at the right tackle spot, Crosby has to love the potential of him taking over this matchup. But the good news for Indianapolis is that Braden Smith has returned to practice this week and is trending in the direction of playing this Sunday.
If Smith can play this week and finish the game, that would be a significant boost for the offensive line. He’s had some success in his past when lining up with Maxx Crosby.
Maxx Crosby couldn't get anything going against Braden Smith on Sunday.
Smith has 3 games left (against JJ Watt, TJ Watt, and Josh Allen) to maintain his 0 allowed sacks this year. Tough match-ups but he could actually finish this year allowing 0 sacks. pic.twitter.com/7uOET16XwI
— Zach Hicks (@ZachHicks2) December 14, 2020
In four career games against the Indianapolis, Crosby has only one sack, which came in last year’s Colts win in Jeff Saturday’s head coaching debut. If the offensive line can limit Crosby’s impact then that can help Gardner Minshew and the passing attack to get into a rhythm.
4
Frustrate Aidan O'Connell
The rookie quarterback for Las Vegas is looking to get his team to a .500 record and a 5-4 record for himself as the starter. Aidan O’Connell averages 200 passing YPG in his eight starts while throwing seven touchdowns and six interceptions in those appearances.
Four of his seven touchdowns came in the blowout win against the Los Angeles Chargers. In his eight starts, he has turned the ball over in four of those games but hasn’t given the ball away in the last two weeks.
O’Connell is coming off a game that features one of the wildest stats I’ve seen. After the first quarter, he didn’t complete a pass in the final three quarters and finished with 62 yards. But his team was able to pull off the upset win over the Chiefs.
One key for the Colts’ defense to win this game is their defensive front suffocating O’Connell with consistent pressure. In his eight starts, he has been sacked 20 times and there has been only one start when he hasn’t been sacked.
With a younger secondary, Gus Bradley has to get his defensive front to wreak havoc on a rookie quarterback to keep him from finding a groove with his receivers.
5
Defending Davante Adams
It will be interesting to see how Gus Bradley plans for how he wants his secondary to handle Davante Adams. He’s played the Colts three times in his career. Adams has two straight 100-receiving-yard games against Indy and has scored a touchdown in all three contests.
In last year’s matchup, he finished with nine receptions for 126 yards and a touchdown on 14 targets.
Davante Adams is so smooth. Casually turns a 3rd-and-10 into a 48-yard touchdown. pic.twitter.com/Ac0LnRopTY
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) November 15, 2022
This matchup will be a big test for JuJu Brents and Jaylon Jones. The pair of rookie cornerbacks have their hands full with one of the craftiest route runners the league has to offer.
This also puts more on Nick Cross and Rodney Thomas II. The communication between the secondary has to be dialed in so they don’t allow Adams to take over the game or have too much focus on him which creates explosive plays from broken coverage.
A win for the Colts will come from a concerted effort to limit explosive plays through the air and the front seven commanding the trenches.
