The Indianapolis Colts offense has been sputtering recently. The recent lack of success has been due to injuries, undisciplined play and more specifically, the offensive line hasn’t played up to their standard. It’s a combination of factors leading to the recent production.
Unlike previous years when Jacksonville had one of the best defenses in the NFL, they’re about middle of the pack this season statistically. They’re 13th in points allowed per game (21), 16th in total yards allowed (350), and 19th in yards per play (5.6).
So this Jaguars defense can be had on Sunday if the Colts focus on these three areas:
1. Win upfront
This Colts offensive line has not been playing up to par the past few weeks, and some of that could be due to the defensive lines that they’ve faced. And while there could be other reasons, but right now they’re getting whipped upfront.
Over the past three games, the Colts run offense has taken a step back only averaging 4.2 yards per rush attempt. The pass protection also hasn’t been as good, the offensive line has given up 10 sacks over the last three games while only giving up six sacks in the first six games.
The Jaguars still have a very talented front four with Calais Campbell, Taven Bryan, Josh Allen and Yannick Ngakoue. On the season Allen leads the team in sacks with seven and second is Campbell with 5.5. They get after the quarterback too, 8th in the NFL in sack percentage on 8.8% of pass plays. But they aren’t a great run defense. They are 22nd in rush yards allowed (120), and 29th in rush yards allowed per attempt (4.9).
2. Win the “Situationals”
Also wrote in the article on why the Colts offense has been playing poorly is because of the “situational” downs, third down and red zone trips. The Colts could have great success on Sunday in these situations against the Jaguars.
The Colts, over the first five games of the season, were converting third downs at a 47% rate (38/81), while red zone efficiency was at 65% (15/23). Both are very good numbers, worthy of being in the top-10. Indianapolis’ third-down conversion rate has dropped to 35% (13/37), and their red zone efficiency has dropped to 50% (5-10), over the last three games.
This Jacksonville defense isn’t stout on third down or in the red zone. They are 18th in the NFL in third-down conversion rate, 39%, and in the red zone they’re 14th at around 53% giving up touchdowns.
If the Colts were to get back to converting third downs, and scoring touchdowns in the red zone, this would be the week.
3. Follow the desire to run the ball
Quenton Nelson started the movement, and they have to get back to that movement in this game. As mentioned the Colts’ run game has taken a step back, but run defense is the weak spot in the Jaguars defense and the Colts must take advantage this week.
Marlon Mack hasn’t had one of those explosive games since Week 5 when he went for over 130 rushing yards against the Chiefs. He’s only topped 100 rushing yards twice this season, but he should hit that mark in this game.
Jacksonville is weak against the run, giving up on average 122 rush yards per game, good for 22nd in the NFL. They’re 29th in the NFL in rush yards allowed per attempt at 4.9.
These stats aren’t due to a lack of volume. Teams run on the Jaguars an average of 24 times a game. The Colts should run more than that in this game, and hopefully find some success running the football.
