This week the matchup is more favorable as the Indianapolis Colts take on the 1-7 Miami Dolphins. Going into Week 10, Miami is near the bottom of the league in nearly every defensive category.
They are 31st in rush yards allowed per game, 20th in passing yards allowed, and to add that all up they aren’t great at generating turnovers, 31st in the league in takeaways.
Indianapolis’ offense hasn’t been as consistent recently. This could be the week, even with all the injuries to key positions, that they could get back on track.
Let’s take a look at some of the keys for the Colts offense this week:
1. Return of the Mack
In a season that has been rather up-and-down for running back Marlon Mack, this is a spot for him to get back into a groove.
Through eight games, Mack has only two games this season of over 90 rushing yards. He had the same amount last year, but on 42 more carries, which equals out to be around five more carries per game. In both of those two games where he rushed for over 90 yards, he had over 25 carries, which should be the gameplan on Sunday.
Teams this season haven’t run on the Dolphins a lot, mostly because they have found success through the air, but they can be beaten in the run game. Miami is giving up 4.7 yards per rush this season, good for 27th in the NFL, and 150.8 total rush yards, 30th in the NFL.
Going into Week 10, the Colts are a top-five rushing offense in terms of percentage of run plays per game. They run the ball around 47% of the time, and with a hobbled or backup QB in on Sunday, expect Frank Reich and the offense to pound the rock at Miami.
2. Undisciplined play
Early in the season, the Colts were one of the most disciplined teams in the NFL. They weren’t turning the ball over and weren’t committing bad penalties, but the past few weeks have been a complete 180.
Against both Denver and Pittsburgh, Indianapolis committed over seven penalties, way up from their season average going into the games, and they were sloppy with the football, committing four turnovers in the past two games.
The Dolphins don’t force a lot of turnovers, 31st in the league, but they are disciplined, only averaging 5.6 penalties per game, best in the NFL. If the Colts want to take care of business versus the Dolphins on Sunday, they can’t keep the Dolphins in the game with bad penalties and costly turnovers.
3. Stay ahead of the down and distance
This key is for both Jacoby Brissett or Brian Hoyer, whoever is under center on Sunday. Both Brissett and Hoyer aren’t top tier level QB in this league, so the Colts need to keep themselves out of third-and-long situations.
Indianapolis is one of the best teams in the NFL in converting third downs, around 43% which is 10th-best in the NFL. But in the last two weeks, their third-down rate has dropped. The Colts are 8-24 in their last two games on third down, only 33%.
While the Dolphins don’t have a fierce pass rush like Denver and Pittsburgh had, they still have some talented defensive players like Taco Charlton and Christian Wilkins. The Colts need to stay ahead of the down and distance on Sunday to have consistent long drives that result in points.
