When the NFL released its schedule back on May 12, a lot of eyes that follow the Indianapolis Colts looked at when Carson Wentz will be making his return to Lucas Oil Stadium as a Washington Commander.
There has been much change since then. Wentz was recently placed on IR which significantly hurts the odds of the draft selection that Indy got for him from turning from a third-rounder into a second-round pick. Taylor Heinicke has replaced him and will now be leading the Commanders’ offense on Sunday.
The biggest surprise came from the Colts after their loss to the Tennessee Titans. Frank Reich announced on Monday that Sam Ehlinger will not only be named the starter for Week 8, but he’s QB1 for the rest of the season. Matt Ryan was brought in to help fix the issues that Wentz couldn’t but that era has come and gone quicker than a rat on a Cheeto.
Despite everything that has circled these franchises this season, both still have an opportunity to get back on track and potentially make a push for the postseason with the parity across the league that is going on. Indianapolis has a 1-0 record against Washington under Reich. That win came during his first season with the team. It certainly feels like this game could potentially give an insight into where these teams are headed for the final months of the year.
Here are five things to keep an eye on Sunday afternoon:
1
Sam Ehlinger's first career start
Sam Ehlinger, the man of the hour. I don’t think there was one person that could’ve ever guessed that not only Ehlinger would play quarterback for this season but also be named the full-time starter. With the addition of Matt Ryan and Nick Foles, people wondered if he would even make the final 53-man roster. But after an impressive preseason performance, he was able to earn his spot on the depth chart as the QB3 entering Week 1.
Ehlinger’s preseason numbers ended with going 24-of-29 for 289 yards and four touchdowns.
Both of Sam Ehlinger's touchdowns.
– 15-yards to Mike Strachan
– 50-yards to Dezmon Patmon#ForTheShoe pic.twitter.com/nda8DcAIBH— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) August 22, 2022
He also had six rushes for 71 yards and a touchdown.
Sam Ehlinger. He's got the juice. #ForTheShoe pic.twitter.com/q8IF0f4YOV
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) August 28, 2022
Now the question is, will he be able to translate what he put on the field in the preseason over into the regular season when the games matter and defensive coordinators put a game plan to defend him? The next part will have to be Frank Reich setting up him for success.
Ehlinger’s mobility not only can help deal with the pass protection struggles the Colts are having but it gives Reich some flexibility with his run plays. I’m expecting to see some similar things to how Reich used Jacoby Brissett and Carson Wentz in his offense but also to adopt what his former offensive coordinator, Nick Sirianni, is doing with Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia.
One thing I am interested in seeing is something that we might not see on the field but is happening behind the scenes. Will Ehlinger help galvanize this team and make a playoff push? Not only Reich needs him so he can save his job for 2023 but also Chris Ballard. The general manager and his staff certainly had a level of confidence in the type of leader they were bringing into this locker room.
Chris Ballard didn't hesitate to select Sam Ehlinger in the 6th round of the 2021 NFL Draft. The #Colts front office believed he can hit his ceiling as a player and now they need him to do so to save their jobs. Will Ehlinger salvage this season for Indianapolis? #ForTheShoe pic.twitter.com/5Q7SLdeYDE
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) October 24, 2022
This experiment is likely headed two ways. Either the Colts end their season in the postseason or they finish with a top-10 draft pick and a potential regime change. They won’t admit it but there is a lot of pressure on Ehlinger. Can the sixth-round pick save the season? Only time will tell.
2
Jonathan Taylor being a catalyst
This has been a less-than-ideal season for Jonathan Taylor. After getting a typical Taylor performance in Week 1, it just hasn’t been the same for the running back. There was the 10-touch day in the loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars the following week then he would go on being a battering ram for the offense in Weeks 3 and 4. He ran the ball 41 times and only averaged 2.75 YPC.
His performance certainly wasn’t on him at all. The offensive line wasn’t consistently opening up rushing lanes for their back and defensives were keying on him to prevent him from taking over. Then it was an ankle injury that knocked him out a couple of weeks until he made his return last week against the Titans.
But it appears that Frank Reich wanted to ease his star player back into the lineup. Taylor only played 55% of the snaps but he was still able to accumulate 85 total yards. I thought he looked healthy, he was able to make cuts, and be that bulldozer when he had multiple defenders trying to bring him to the ground.
If the Colts want to make life easier on their new starting quarterback then Frank Reich has to make sure to get the ball in Taylor’s hands as much as possible on Sunday. The rushing attack should benefit from Sam Ehlinger’s mobility since the defense can’t sell out on Taylor because of the threat of the quarterback pulling it and taking off.
Taylor is what can make this offense go and they have to get back to him being the straw that stirs the drink. If Indianapolis wins this game then it will be because we see a classic day out of their running back.
3
3. Winning the turnover battle
There isn’t too much you can complain about the Colts’ defense this season. Gus Bradley’s unit hasn’t been perfect but they have done a solid job at holding teams out of the endzone and the pass rush has steadily improved as the season has gone along. If there was one part of the game they lacked has been creating takeaways.
They have a total of seven forced turnovers, which is the fourth-lowest mark in the NFL. Three of those are interceptions that two came from the win over the Denver Broncos. Then you can only really count one of the four fumble recoveries as a legit turnover for the defense.
There was the Kylen Granson one that came off a muffed punt, Nick Cross jumped on a ball when the Jaguars were doing the classic lateral play on the final play of a game, and when Bobby Okereke jumped on a bobbled exchange last week.
Here's the botched exchange on the jet sweep between Ryan Tannehill and Malik Willis. Even if Willis gets the handoff, DeForest Buckner was right there waiting to blow him up. pic.twitter.com/rxMr2B9OMD
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) October 25, 2022
You have to take any takeaway that you can get but for being one of the best teams to do it in 2021, this season has been a major dropoff in that department for the Colts. It doesn’t help that they have been missing the turnover king, Shaquille Leonard, for pretty much the whole season. It does sound like he might be back on Sunday and he could potentially provide a much-needed boost for his team.
Colts LB Shaq Leonard:
"Each day has been absolutely better and better. I feel more explosive — I feel like a linebacker. I feel like I have the quick twitch, feeling more powerful in the left leg, being more confident in the left side."
— Zak Keefer (@zkeefer) October 27, 2022
It has been a struggle to win the turnover battle for Indianapolis but if the defense can start getting their hands on the ball and the offense starts protecting it then I like their chances of leaving with a victory over the Commanders.
4
Here we go again with the offensive line
As much as a disappointment the swift Matt Ryan era has been for the Colts, it has been just as equal if not worse with how the offensive line has been this season. That part of Frank Reich’s offense has given up 24 sacks, 80 QB hits, and 110 pressures. That just isn’t sustainable for any quarterback, especially one like Ryan who can’t bail them out with his legs.
Despite looking like the line was going to turn things around after the win over the Jaguars, it only took one week for them to look like they have been in the first half of the season in last week’s loss to the Titans.
Here are the 3 sacks given up by the #Colts. It was another week of struggling with stunts and losing matchups. The #Titans also finished with 10 QB hits. pic.twitter.com/MyIGdKc83E
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) October 24, 2022
Sam Ehlinger may offer that mobility that can help extend plays but if the offensive line fails to give him any type of time to go through his first read then it is going to be the same debacle on offense even with the change at quarterback. The Colts can hope that Ehlinger can provide a jolt to a struggling offense but they can only go so far with how their offensive line is playing.
It won’t be any easier when Washington comes to Lucas Oil Stadium. Even though they will be without Chase Young, their defensive front still features Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne, and Montez Sweat. Their 19 sacks are the sixth most as a team across the NFL.
Indianapolis is honoring Tarik Glenn on Sunday with his induction to the Ring Honor.
Expect a ton of Colts greats in town Sunday for Tarik Glenn’s Ring of Honor induction.
Reggie Wayne: “I hope it’s a (record)-breaking number of guys coming back. Tarik was that dude. Tarik should’ve been in there a long time ago, and for whatever reason, he wasn’t.”
— Zak Keefer (@zkeefer) October 27, 2022
The former Colt was a great left tackle for the organization so the offensive line should understand the importance of showing up with the alumni in town. If Ehlinger is going to get his career off to a good start and Taylor back to being Jonathan Taylor then it will be on the hog mollies to dominate and have their way with the talented Commanders’ defensive front.
5
Bottling up the run
The Colts rush defense has been Jekyll-and-Hyde this season. They have their spurts where they are dominant and are forcing teams into long-down situations. Then they have their moments where offenses are breaking off explosive plays on the ground and getting their team into scoring position.
In the first seven games, Gus Bradley’s unit is allowing 123.4 rushing YPG. Which is the ninth most allowed in the NFL. If there is one thing that can help Indianapolis create some turnovers is to take away Washington’s rushing attack and force Taylor Heinicke to beat them.
The Commanders are averaging 105.6 rushing YPG, which is the 11th fewest in the league. They have been looking to get that part of their offense going with Brian Robinson coming back into the lineup a few weeks ago. The rookie has gotten 17+ carries in their last two games.
Then they can’t ignore Antonio Gibson. Even though he may have lost his lead role in the backfield, he is still involved in the offense and has that athletic ability to break off a long run for the Commanders.
Winning the first two downs will be huge for the Colts’ defense on Sunday. The more often they put Washington in long third-down situations then the likelihood of Heinike throwing an interception increases. This is how Gus Bradley’s unit can take that next step.
