The Indianapolis Colts will be on the road this week as they look to continue their four-game winning streak against the Cincinnati Bengals.
After the surprising upset by Cincy over the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 13, this matchup has playoff implications, especially considering both of these teams are looking at potential wild-card berths over winning their divisions.
Since 2002 the Colts have an 8-4 record against the Bengals but have lost their last three road contests in this series. The last time Indianapolis won in Cincinnati was in 2005. This should be another tough road matchup for Indy.
Here are five things to watch for on Sunday:
1
The return of Grover Stewart
It is safe to say that the Indy rush defense has severely missed Grover Stewart during his six-game suspension. The Colts have allowed at least 125 rushing yards in six straight games, the longest streak in team history since 2006.
It will be interesting to see if Gus Bradley elects to ease Stewart back in during his first game back but it doesn’t sound like the veteran defensive tackle wants to stay on the sidelines much on Sunday. He told the media on Wednesday that he doesn’t need a pitch count.
Grover Stewart says he doesn’t need to be on a pitch count against Cincinnati
— Joel A. Erickson (@JoelAErickson) December 6, 2023
It also sounds like Stewart is ready for the physicality of the game as well.
Grover Stewart is back in the lineup this week after 6-game suspension:
-Was surprised by positive test. Wouldn’t say what he took to test positive.
-On returning: “I feel like a new man. I’m ready.”
-“I missed hitting people, throwing people out of the way.” pic.twitter.com/zeTgSAF8vQ
— Kevin Bowen (@KBowen1070) December 6, 2023
The rush defense should not only look better this week with Stewart but they are facing a Bengals team that is only averaging 82.5 rushing YPG, which is the lowest in the NFL.
Cincy is led by Joe Mixon in the backfield. He’s averaging 57.4 rushing YPG, his lowest mark since his rookie season in 2017. Another player to keep an eye on from their backfield is rookie Chase Brown.
He hasn’t got much play this season but is coming off a game where he added some explosiveness to their rushing attack. In the win over the Jags, Brown had 61 yards on nine attempts.
With improvement against the run with Stewart, Bradley’s defense should put Jake Browning and the Cincy passing attack in third-and-long situations often. It’s key for them to be in a position to win the game in the fourth quarter.
2
Get Zack Moss going early
With Jonathan Taylor expected to miss his second game in a row, it will be Zack Moss leading the Indy backfield once again. Last week was a slugfest for Moss, he averaged just 2.7 YPC on 19 attempts. This week should be a much better showing from the Indy rushing attack.
The Bengals are allowing 133.9 rushing YPG, which is the fifth-most allowed in the league. The offensive line has to set the tone from their opening snap. Dominating the trenches and opening up lanes for Moss to break off explosive runs throughout the contest.
With the offense struggling to convert third downs last week, they have to do a better job at putting themselves in favorable third-down situations and that comes down to winning the first two downs.
That’s not to say Shane Steichen should avoid passing on first or second down, but he does need to get his running game in a rhythm early in this contest so they can wear down the Cincy defense by the fourth quarter.
If Moss can cross the 100-yard rushing mark then that should lead to a victory for the Colts.
3
Defending Cincy's trio of WRs
One thing that makes life easier for Jake Browning is that he has the best trio of receivers at his disposal. The win over Jacksonville was an example of what an elite receiver can do for a backup quarterback thrusted into a starting role.
Ja’Marr Chase finished that game with 11 receptions for 149 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets. He got 76 of those yards on his touchdown that gave the Bengals their first lead of the game.
Despite Joe Burrow’s slow start to this season and playing with Browning the past two weeks, Chase is currently averaging 88.6 receiving YPG, which would be the highest of his three-year career.
Chase will be a problem for Jaylon Jones and Darrell Baker Jr., and possibly JuJu Brents, who practiced for the first time since Week 7. It will be best served if Gus Bradley decides to double-team Chase often and force others to beat his defense in this matchup.
It won’t be an easy task because Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd have shown they can make an impact on games but both are having down years in comparison to their previous seasons.
Higgins has been slowed down by injuries this season and is averaging 45.5 receiving YPG, which would be the lowest of his career. But with his free agency around the corner, I expect he will want to show out in the final five games for a good payday.
If Bradley does double-team Chase, then the opposite corner will be lined up against him. As far as Boyd, he’s averaging 41.6 receiving YPG, which would be the lowest for him since 2017.
Since he is their slot receiver, expect to see him lined up against Kenny Moore II for the majority of Sunday afternoon. With how good Moore II has been this season, I like the chances of the Indy defense keeping Boyd in check.
If the Colts can keep Chase from taking over the game and don’t allow Higgins and Boyd to win their battles then they should slow down the Bengals offense which is coming off one of their best games of the season.
4
Gardner Minshew playing mistake free
It should be expected by Shane Steichen that opposing defenses are going to enter the game with a plan to take away his rushing attack and put the game on Gardner Minshew’s shoulders. Minshew has shown he can keep drives alive with his arm at times this season but has his moments where you question what he is thinking and on those plays, those turnovers seem to pop up.
Since taking over as the starting quarterback, Minshew only has one game that he finished without a turnover. That came in the win over the Carolina Panthers.
In his three losses as the starter, he committed nine turnovers. Five of those were interceptions and the other four were fumbles. Minshew has given the ball away once in each of the last three games but the Colts were able to overcome those by not losing the turnover battle.
This feels like one of those games where if Indianapolis can protect the ball and not give the Bengals great field position then they should be able to control this game.
5
Make Jake Browning uncomfortable
One way to limit the impact from the trio of receivers on the Bengals offense is to pressure Jake Browning early and often. The more that the Indy defensive front can get pressure on him the more they can help throw off the timing between him and his receivers.
The Colts defense has been on fire as of late in the sack department. They have gotten 21 of their 42 sacks in their last four games and they also have the second-most sacks in the NFL.
Indianapolis also has the sixth most QB hits (83). They’ve gotten at least five sacks in their last three games, which is the longest active streak in the league.
The effort has been led by edge rushers Samson Ebukam and Kwity Paye. Both have combined for nine sacks in the last three games and each had a pair in the overtime win last week.
Ebukam had his two in the first half.
Samson Ebukam with a speed bull rush to get home for his second sack of the game. pic.twitter.com/8zsDWoJz9b
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) December 5, 2023
While Paye got his two in the second half.
Kwity Paye used his arm length to drive the tackle back and move him to get his hands on the ball for the strip-sack to force the three-and-out. pic.twitter.com/JhdbntYK7Z
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) December 5, 2023
This should be a matchup that the Indy defensive front can take advantage of. Cincinnati has given up 33 sacks this season, which is tied for the eighth-most allowed in the NFL.
Gus Bradley can’t let Browning sit in the pocket and get into a rhythm as he did on Monday night. The defensive line dominating their matchups can turn this into a blowout win for the Colts. If they can’t, then this could come down to the wire.
