ESPN ran a simulation of every game set to happen during the 2020 season and while the Indianapolis Colts didn’t finish above a .500 record, they did make it into the playoffs.
In their simulation of the entire 2020 season, the Colts finished 8-8 and in second place behind the Houston Texans, who were the division winners with a 9-7 record.
Each preseason, we run 20,000 simulations of the entire slate with ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), our projection system. A lot goes into it, including expected starting quarterback, past performance, returning starters and projected win totals. The culmination is a strength rating for all 32 teams that helps us predict outcomes.
But today, only one of those sims matters: No. 3,869. We played out that single result across every game, giving us tight division races, QB controversies, breakouts and of course a Super Bowl LV champion. We also baked in NFL analyst Mike Clay’s player projections to give us stat leaders throughout the season.
The Titans finished with the same record but failed to make the playoffs while the Jaguars had an abysmal season (as most project), earning the top overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft along the way.
The Chiefs beat the Colts in the wild-card round and wound up repeating as Super Bowl champions in a 42-37 win over the Dallas Cowboys.
Here’s how the simulation predicted the season would go for the Colts (the winner is listed in all-caps):
Week 1: COLTS @ Jaguars 34–7 (1-0)
Week 2: VIKINGS @ Colts 24–10 (1-1)
Week 3: JETS @ Colts 34–15 (1-2)
Week 4: BEARS vs. Colts 20–16 (1-3)
Week 5: COLTS @ Browns 27–20 (2-3)
Week 6: COLTS vs. Bengals 30–27 (3-3)
Week 7: BYE
Week 8: LIONS vs. Colts 31–6 (3-4)
Week 9: RAVENS @ Colts 41–16 (3-5)
Week 10: TITANS vs. Colts 21–20 (3-6)
Week 11: COLTS vs. Packers 19–16 (4-6)
Week 12: COLTS vs. Titans 31–19 (5-6)
Week 13: TEXANS vs. Colts 20–17 (5-7)
Week 14: COLTS @ Raiders 37–16 (6-7)
Week 15: COLTS vs. Texans 20–17 (7-7)
Week 16: STEELERS vs. Colts 22–20 (7-8)
Week 17: COLTS vs. Jaguars 9–7 (8-8)
