In the short-lived BCS era that came to an end last season, finishing third or fourth in the final rankings before Selection Sunday carried little significance.
Auburn had their title hopes dashed in 2004, when the undefeated Tigers received the No3 seed behind an Oklahoma team that was blasted 55-19 by USC in the BCS Championship Game. Three years later, when as many as eight teams staked a legitimate claim for the No4 ranking, few cared.
When the College Football Playoff committee unveils its inaugural four-team playoff on Sunday, however, any controversies will likely center on the latter two teams chosen. The committee, in a surprising move on Tuesday, placed TCU at No3 ahead of undefeated, defending national champion Florida State. Ohio State, Baylor and Arizona also appear to be in the mix for the final spot.
Here’s our breakdown of the contenders for the final four.
No1: Alabama (11-1)
Why the Crimson Tide will make the playoff: If Alabama defeat Missouri on Saturday in the SEC Championship, they are a virtual lock to earn a spot in the Final Four. ESPN needs star power to promote the playoff and wide receiver Amari Cooper may be the most electric player in the country, besides Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota. Cooper vaulted back into the Heisman conversation with 13 receptions for an Iron Bowl record 224 yards in the 55-44 win over Auburn. Crimson Tide quarterback Blake Sims is remarkably on pace to throw for as many touchdowns as AJ McCarron did in 2013, while passing for more yards. Alabama also posted a double-digit victory over a West Virginia team that handed No6 Baylor their only loss of the season and boast wins over former No1 Mississippi State, Texas A&M and LSU.
Why the Crimson Tide will not make the playoff: Alabama are not assured of a spot if they are upset by Missouri, especially if TCU, Florida State, Baylor and Ohio State all win this weekend. On Monday, Missouri defensive coordinator Dave Steckel was named as one of five finalists for the 2014 Broyles Award, given annually to the top assistant in the country. In conference games only, Missouri are allowing just 3.99 yards per play – the lowest in Steckel’s 14-year tenure at Missouri. On passing downs, Steckel has a proclivity for running a 4-3 over scheme where his defensive tackles can command double teams up the middle giving explosive defensive ends Markus Golden and Shane Ray one-on-one matchups on the outside. Opposing quarterbacks have had little time to throw against the Tigers, as the two potential NFL first-round picks have combined for 23 sacks and 37 tackles for losses. If Sims expects to hit Cooper on deep outs and posts, he will have to contend with a pair of corners in Kenya Dennis and Aarion Penton who are accustomed to providing receivers with a six to seven yard cushion off the line to defend against explosive plays. Alabama will have to put up a boatload of points if their defense struggles like it did against Auburn, when it allowed 628 yards.
Chances of being selected: Strong
No2: Oregon (11-1)
Why the Ducks will make the playoff: Oregon’s trademark high-tempo offense has put up more than 47.5 points per game since being upset by Arizona on 2 October. Beset by injuries in the 31-24 loss, Oregon’s key players appear to be healthy for the rematch on Friday night. Following the defeat, Oregon coaches claimed an undisclosed injury by Mariota hampered his ability to scramble when necessary. Forced into a one-dimensional passing attack, the Ducks struggled when the Wildcats rushed three and dropped eight into coverage. The loss of defensive end Arik Armstead to an ankle injury proved to be just as detrimental, as the Wildcats scored 28 of their 31 points after halftime. Without Armstead plugging multiple gaps, Ducks’ defenders frequently missed assignments and found themselves out of position. Both Mariota and Armstead, though, appear focused and ready to avenge the loss.
Why the Ducks will not make the playoff: Following an undefeated regular season in 2010, Oregon have seen their title chances foiled in each of the last three years by losses to decided underdogs. In 2011, the Ducks followed up a dominating 23-point win over Andrew Luck and Stanford with a disappointing effort against USC. Despite possessing clear advantages in speed and talent against Stanford in 2012 and 2013, the Ducks were physically outmanned in both defeats. Oregon must slow an Arizona offense that has averaged more than 36 points in their last two meetings.
Chances of being selected: Strong
No3: TCU (10-1)
Why the Horned Frogs will make the Playoff: TCU shockingly leapfrogged Florida State into the third position this week. The committee appears to be sending a strong signal that the Horned Frogs are safe as long as they defeat hapless Iowa State at home. There could be so much offense in an Oregon-TCU matchup that both punters may remain on the bus.
TCU capped a five-game offensive explosion in late-October with an 82-27 win over Texas Tech. The Horned Frogs could have easily cracked the 100-point barrier had their starters not been lifted by coach Gary Patterson. TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin is less heralded than Mariota, but just as dangerous. Five of Boykin’s targets have already recorded at least 29 receptions and two touchdown catches on the season. TCU also held Minnesota to a single touchdown in a convincing 30-7 win on 13 September. By comparison, Ohio State did not seal a win against the Golden Gophers in mid-November until they recovered an onside kick late in the game.
Why the Horned Frogs will not make the playoff: Of the teams in contention for the final spot, TCU have the only head-to-head defeat – a 61-58 loss to Baylor on 11 October. The Horned Frogs’ resume also includes a scare against a nine-loss Kansas team, when they had to rally from a 10-point deficit in the third quarter. Ohio State could argue that their 12-point road win over then No8 Michigan State on 8 November carries more weight than TCU’s most impressive victory – a 41-20 home defeat of Kansas State on the same date.
Chances of being selected: Good
No4: Florida State (12-0)
Why the Seminoles will make the Playoff: The defending national champions are riding a 28-game winning streak and are the only team to receive inclusion in the top four in all six weeks of the rankings. For all the criticism hurled at Jameis Winston, last year’s Heisman winner is still completing passes at a rate similar to his output in 2013 with a makeshift line that has struggled in pass protection. Winston is cool and composed with the game on the line – a trait that could be needed in Saturday’s ACC Championship against Georgia Tech. Florida State will certainly fall behind Ohio State and Baylor with a loss, but it will be hard to leave out an undefeated Seminoles in favor of a one-loss conference champion.
Why the Seminoles will not make the Playoff: At some point Florida State’s luck will run out. The Seminoles have won their last three games by a combined 12 points, last year they only won one game by fewer than 12 points. Florida State have also won four games this season when committing at least three turnovers – the most in FBS. A Seminoles run defense that ranks 42nd in FBS will face the Yellow Jackets’ tricky triple option offense. If Georgia Tech can build an early lead and control the clock, it might be too much for Florida State to overcome.
Chances of being selected: Decent
No5: Ohio State (11-1)
Why the Buckeyes will make the Playoff: Not many teams can withstand the loss of a Heisman Trophy candidate and remain in the top 5 in the nation. Ohio State lost their second, after quarterback JT Barrett suffered a season-ending ankle injury against Michigan and can still qualify for the Final Four. Following the win over the Wolverines, Ohio State coach Urban Meyer argued that a strong running game and dominant line play allow a quarterback to flourish in his system. If third-string quarterback Cardale Jones produces a strong effort against Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship, Meyer might be right. Ohio State likely only need a win, and a loss by one of the top four teams, to qualify.
Why the Buckeyes will not make the Playoff: It is easy to quantify Barrett’s significance to the offense. In 12 games, the redshirt freshman accounted for 3,772 total yards, nearly 3,000 of which through the air and 34 touchdown passes. He added 11 more touchdowns on the ground. By comparison, Michael Vick only compiled 2,747 total yards in his first season at Virginia Tech and 22 total touchdowns. Barrett’s absence, notwithstanding, the Buckeyes must contain Wisconsin running back Melvin Gordon. Ohio State were unable to slow Tevin Coleman of Indiana, David Cobb of Minnesota and Jeremy Langford of Michigan State – each of whom rushed for three touchdowns against the Buckeyes. The Buckeyes’ run defense also surrendered a combined 510 yards on 7.08 yards per carry to the talented trio. Gordon needs to average 184.5 yards over his final two games to break Barry Sanders’ record for the most rushing yards in a season (2,628 in 1988) in FBS history.
Chances of being selected: Decent
No6: Baylor (10-1)
Why the Bears will make the Playoff: Baylor may be as incensed as any team by Tuesday’s developments, as the committee placed it three spots below a TCU team they defeated earlier in the season. Baylor rallied from a 21-point deficit with less than 11 minutes left, as Bears quarterback Bryce Petty scorched the TCU secondary for 510 yards and six touchdowns. Baylor’s high-powered, versatile offense has put up at least 60 points four times and only failed to score 40 twice. The Bears could take their frustrations out on a Kansas State team also ranked in the top 10 and prove to the committee that they belong.
Why the Bears will not make the Playoff: Baylor coasted after taking a 42-17 lead against Texas Tech and needed a failed two-point conversation by the lowly Red Raiders to avoid overtime. The lapse could come to cost the Bears a spot. Hypothetically, if Baylor defeats the Wildcats they may still need losses from two of the five teams ahead of them. Even then, the committee could select a two-loss Alabama or Oregon over the Bears or go with a potential two-loss Arizona team. There appear to be too many variables for Baylor to contend with.
Chances of being selected: Slim.
No7: Arizona (10-2)
Why the Wildcats will make the Playoff: Rich Rodriguez’s offense has moved the ball on Oregon with ease in consecutive wins, while his defense appears to have figured out how to defend Mariota better than any other team in the PAC-12. If the Wildcats pull off the upset, they will have a solid resume with two wins over the Ducks, coupled by top 20 victories over Utah and Arizona State over the last two weeks. Quarterback Anu Solomon is having a spectacular freshman season, while linebacker Scooby Wright III might be one of the most versatile defensive players in the nation. If the committee feels the need to include a team from out west, Arizona could have a shot.
Why the Wildcats will not make the Playoff: Oregon coach Mark Helfrich will make the requisite adjustments from the seven-point defeat in October and Arizona will not have an answer for Mariota. The committee must consider Arizona’s early-season struggles, as well. Before the Oregon win, the Wildcats only defeated Texas San-Antonio by three and Cal by four. The Roadrunners are 4-8 overall.
Chances of being selected: Slim.
The longshots
It will take nothing short of a miracle for these teams to earn a spot, but none of them have been ruled out. With losses to both Ohio State and Oregon, No8 Michigan State (10-2) can’t move ahead of the Buckeyes or Ducks. The Spartans need nearly everyone else ahead of them to lose. No.9 Kansas State (10-2) need to defeat Baylor and at a minimum needs TCU to fall to Iowa State. Since No 10 Mississippi State (10-2) lost to Alabama they would need the Crimson Tide to stay at No1 to help their strength of schedule, then would require a flurry of upsets. No 11 Georgia Tech (10-2), No. 13 Wisconsin (10-2) and No. 16 Missouri (10-2) are not guaranteed a spot even if they win a conference championship. All three need a win and lots of help.
