20 key offseason topics for 2020: No. 6. Which five college football teams have the potential to surprise?
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20 for 2020 Offseason Topics
20. Best Teams To Not Make CFP
19: Teams That Will Rebound Big
18. Teams That Will Fall Back
17: Every Power 5 Team’s Letdown Game
16. Top 5 Instant Impact New Head Coaches
15. 2nd Year Coaches Who’ll Be Better
14. Power 5 Hot Seat Coach Rankings
13. Key Transfers You Forgot About
12. Five Big Power 5 Upset Alerts
11. Great Players About To Go Nuclear
10. Group of 5 Teams In New Year’s Six Chase
9. Power 5 Sleeper Teams
8. Most Interesting Quarterback Battles
7. 5 Teams That Might Disappoint
This is where we get to have some fun.
Unlike the Power 5 Sleeper Teams in the earlier piece, this is more about the teams that won’t be on the radar for most college football fans, but could make a big impact.
It’s a bit much to put these teams into the 2019 Baylor and Minnesota category and challenge for big things – again, that’s what the sleeper team piece was about – but they should be ready to defy expectations.
Think 2019 Illinois and Louisville – they were part of last year’s list of Potential Surprises – but things don’t always work out as hoped for. Arkansas and UCLA didn’t do what we thought they might.
But if we can hit three of five like we did last year, we’ll take it.
And the Power Five programs that could and should be the biggest surprises are …
ACC: Syracuse
Let’s try this again.
The excitement for 2019 was sky-high after a 10-3 2018 campaign. Syracuse was one of just two ACC teams in the preseason rankings – Clemson, of course, was the other – but it all came apart in a big way.
Maryland was awful last season, but it looked like the Kansas City Chiefs against the Orange in a 63-20 win. Even so, a 3-2 SU start provided hope early on, but a four-game losing streak ended all of that.
The run defense was non-existent, the offensive line almost got QB Tommy DeVito killed – allowing the third-most sacks per game in America – and every week was a struggle.
However, things picked up late with wins of two of the last three games -ruining Duke’s bowl hopes along the way – and the offense started to pick up the production.
The O line might have been awful, but it comes back experienced to try giving DeVito a fighting chance. New offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert will crank up the tempo with a decent group of receivers returning.
Schedule-wise, three of the first four games are on the road, but Boston College, Rutgers and Western Michigan are all winnable. Get through those, beat Louisville at home, and a 6-0 start is likely before dealing with Clemson.
Throw in a manageable back half of the slate, and rebounding to 2018 form isn’t a crazy ask.
NEXT: Big Ten Potential Surprise
Big Ten: Illinois
Illinois was on here last year, and let’s just do it all again. And why? It’s going to be tempting to assume that the 2019 bowl run was a one-off.
It took minor miracles to pull off the two big wins of the season against Wisconsin and Michigan State, and it got ugly late with the offense dying and a 19-point loss to a miserable Northwestern.
Going bowling under Lovie Smith was fun, but it was still a losing season.
And that was that. Illinois will go back to being the speed bump that other Big Ten teams knew and loved, there won’t be anything to be that concerned about, and …
2019 might have just been the start.
Smith made a point of suffering through the growing pains of playing a whole lot of really, really young players over the years, and last year it started to pay off.
Most of the top pass catchers are back, four starters return on the O line, the offensive backfield is experienced, and seven of the top nine tacklers are expected to be the nucleus.
But this still isn’t that great a team talent-wise – it’s not going to be challenging Ohio State for the Big Ten title.
Fortunately, the start of the season is once again light and breezy – one of the keys to last year, too – with Illinois State, UConn, Bowling Green and Rutgers to open things up. With Nebraska and Purdue to follow, Illinois doesn’t face a team that went bowling last year until hosting Minnesota in late October.
Getting bowl eligible will still be a fight, but there’s a real shot to make this the team’s first winning season wince 2011.
NEXT: Big 12 Potential Surprise
Big 12: Texas Tech
It was a rough first year under head coach Matt Wells.
He lost starting quarterback Alan Bowman, the defense didn’t do enough, and the Red Raiders suffered tough loss after tough loss.
On the down side, they went 4-8 with a team that should’ve been good enough to go bowling. In a season was half full sort of way, four of the losses were by three points or fewer, and they were in the games in defeats to Arizona and Iowa State.
The offensive line will need some work, but the skill spots should be strong as long as the top quarterback options can stay in one piece.
The defense that was such a problem at times should get back seven starters and brings in linebacker transfers Brandon Randle from Michigan State and Christian LaValle from Utah State. In all, there could be as many as 17 of the top 20 tacklers returning.
The schedule should help the cause with UTEP and Alabama State to open up, and with four of the first five games against teams that didn’t go bowling last season.
Win home games against Arizona, West Virginia and Kansas – or at least two of them – win a few of those tight games that went the wrong way last year, and getting to at least six wins isn’t asking for the world.
With Baylor, Texas and Oklahoma coming to Lubbock, being a disruptive force in the Big 12 race isn’t asking for a ton, either.
NEXT: Pac-12 Potential Surprise
Pac-12: Stanford
Stanford football success almost became taken for granted.
The program suffered through seven straight losing seasons from 2002 through 2008, and then the run started of seven straight winning campaigns, including four straight with nine wins or more over the last four years.
And then came the 4-8 clunker of last season.
QB KJ Costello – now at Mississippi State – was never healthy after the opener, the offensive line was decimated by injuries, and the defense had its worst season in well over a decade.
Call it an aberration.
Oregon will be in everyone’s preseason top ten – if not a whole lot higher – Cal is going to be a fashionably-likable team, Washington is strong again, and even Oregon State and Washington State will be interesting. But the Cardinal should be a factor in the Pac-12 North – as long as everyone can stay healthy.
Former superstar recruit Davis Mills should be up and ready to roll at quarterback, but there are other options to play around with once and if practices get going.
Most of the top receivers are back, and the offensive line that suffered through so many problems last season – and had to go young at a few spots – should be a force.
The defensive front needs reworking, but the secondary should be sound, and years of decent recruiting should help the cause up front.
It’s going to be a tough run with the Oregon, Washington and Notre Dame games all on the road, but there’s no Utah or Arizona State on the slate, and there are more than enough winnable games to make a push for a nine-win season for the fourth time in five years.
NEXT: SEC Potential Surprise
SEC: Missouri
Missouri hit a wall.
It overcame a flop against Wyoming to start out 5-1, the offense was playing well, the team seemed to be in the right mindset despite the NCAA sanctions that crushed any bowl hopes, and then …
Who loses to 2019 Vanderbilt?
The Tigers failed to show up offensively in the second half of the year, they couldn’t beat the good teams on the schedule, and only a win over a hapless Arkansas helped pull the season up out of the nosedive.
Head coach Barry Odom was fired, Appalachian State’s Eliah Drinkwitz was hired, and now it’s time to make the program a player in the SEC East again.
That might not happen quite yet, but with all of the focus on Florida, Georgia, and the possible resurgence of Tennessee, there’s a shot Mizzou can sneak up on everyone.
Starting out against Central Arkansas and Vanderbilt should help, and then it’s on with three road games in the next four weeks. However, the team should be just good enough to win at least two of the three against South Carolina, Tennessee and BYU.
Getting Louisiana and Arkansas in Columbia to close should help, and missing Alabama, LSU, Auburn and Texas A&M from the West is massive.
There are some key losses.
QB Kelly Bryant was a one-and-done transfer anyway, but TCU transfer Shawn Robinson is a nice talent, and Taylor Powell is still in place after seeing time last year.
As many as seven starters should return on offense, Virginia Tech WR Damon Hazelton is coming in, and considering tackling-machine LB Cale Garrett was lost to injury last year, as many as nine starters from the end of the season are expected back on defense.
And Mizzou can go bowling again this year.
