Welcome to Before The Snap, For The Win’s college football series where we’ll break down the sport’s trending storylines, examine each week’s biggest matchups and track the College Football Playoff and Heisman Trophy races.
After Week 7 of the 2022 college football season, we have a new No. 1 team — both in the AP Poll as well as ESPN’s Playoff Predictor for the teams with the best chances to be among the final four championship contenders.
For AP voters, Georgia and Ohio State did enough to leap over former No. 1 Alabama to claim the top-2 spots. But for the Playoff Predictor formula, the Buckeyes and Crimson Tide swapped spots, and Ohio State is now the most favored team to make the College Football Playoff. But is it really the best team right now?
Ahead of Week 7’s games, here’s a look at the top-10 teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff, along with their chances of advancing to the title game and winning it all, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, as of Tuesday. The Playoff Predictor utilizes an algorithm that factors in the same considerations as the selection committee, such as strength of record, number of losses and conference championships (or independent status), along with the FPI.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0)
- Playoff: 80.8 percent
- National championship game: 49.3 percent
- Win championship: 27.5 percent
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0)
- Playoff: 80.0 percent
- National championship game: 53.7 percent
- Win championship: 32.3 percent
3. Georgia Bulldogs (6-0)
- Playoff: 67.9 percent
- National championship game: 37.7 percent
- Win championship: 19.1 percent
4. Clemson Tigers (6-0)
- Playoff: 51.2 percent
- National championship game: 19.0 percent
- Win championship: 6.8 percent
Compared with last week’s numbers, Ohio State, Alabama and Georgia actually all saw their chances increase, but the Buckeyes obviously had the biggest bump — though still a small one. Their chance to make the playoff is up from 78.3 percent, while their chance to win it all got a boost from 24.8 percent in Week 6.
Clemson’s playoff chance remained about the same, along with the other two categories. And although the Tigers’ chances are a bit less than the top-3 teams, there are clearly four College Football Playoff frontrunners and everyone else looking to ruin their party.
Here’s a look at the rest of the teams with the top-10 best College Football Playoff chances in Week 7:
5. Michigan Wolverines (6-0)
- Playoff: 37.2 percent
- National championship game: 14.1 percent
- Win championship: 5.4 percent
6. Tennessee Volunteers (5-0)
- Playoff: 23.1 percent
- National championship game: 8.5 percent
- Win championship: 3.2 percent
7. USC Trojans (6-0)
- Playoff: 18.7 percent
- National championship game: 5.1 percent
- Win championship: 1.6 percent
8. Texas Longhorns (4-2)
- Playoff: 12.6 percent
- National championship game: 5.4 percent
- Win championship: 2.1 percent
9. Ole Miss Rebels (6-0)
- Playoff: 10.0 percent
- National championship game: 3.0 percent
- Win championship: 0.9 percent
10. Penn State Nittany Lions
- Playoff: 5.6 percent
- National championship game: 1.3 percent
- Win championship: 0.3 percent
Compared with Week 6, Utah is no longer on this list and was replaced by Texas, which has been in and out of this top-10 all season.
