What will the 2020 College Football Playoff top 25 rankings be when they’re first released on Tuesday night?
The first round of College Football Playoff rankings will be released on Tuesday night. What will they be? In this crazy year when some teams have played almost a full season, and some others are just getting started, how will a top 25 be put together?
A few ground rules when it comes to the College Football Playoff process.
1. The rankings are meant to capture the moment. Every week’s rankings are unique. When they come out, they’ll be a snapshot. They’ll then be thrown out, and the whole process will start over next week.
2. The committee tends to like big wins, hates awful losses, and in general over the last six years, it hasn’t punished teams that suffer losses to the elite teams.
3. Every spot in the rankings is debated. The committee argues and discusses the No. 24 spot, and then the No. 24, and so on up until No. 1. This is a meticulous process. If you don’t like the ranking, at least know there was a whole lot of thought put into it.
Most of all …
4. There aren’t any rules except for one – no other ranking system matters. The AP and Coaches polls don’t exist here. These are the rankings of record, and they’re based on the whims of a panel of judges. They have their own stats and their own ideas, but they can do whatever they want to.
College Football Playoff Rankings Prediction Top 25 Projection
25. Auburn Tigers 5-2
The Case For This Spot: The Tigers have five wins in the SEC. Say what you will about the conference being overrated and overloved, going 5-2 in the conference is good no matter what. Best of all, the team is quietly getting better over the last three games.
Should Be Higher: One of the two losses is at Georgia, losing 27-6 when the Bulldog defense played one of its better games of the year. The 48-11 win over LSU was impressive – even if it’s not the same LSU – and stuffing Kentucky, Tennessee, and even Ole Miss and Arkansas is a more impressive body of work than what most of the teams on this list have done.
Should Be Lower: South Carolina 30, Auburn 22. Combine that with no wins over anyone currently with a winning record, and several other teams not on this list have a beef.
Up Next: Alabama
24. Wisconsin Badgers 2-1
The Case For This Spot: When this team is fully healthy, fully functional, and with everyone okay, it’s as effective and as deadly as any in college football for what it does. Illinois and Michigan might not be that great, but what the Badgers did were two of the more impressive back-to-back performances by any Power Five team.
Should Be Higher: The loss at Northwestern was weird and ugly, but lost in the 17-7 loss was a dominant performance by the defense. The offense was without most of its top receivers, and it was a road loss against an unbeaten team.
Should Be Lower: Northwestern 17, Wisconsin 7. Combine the horrible offensive game with just three games of sample size, and being just inside the top 25 is good enough.
Up Next: Minnesota
23. North Carolina Tar Heels 6-2
The Case For This Spot: The offense is a blast, the defense is … the offense is a blast. The Tar Heels haven’t and won’t play Miami, but a case could be made that they’re the third-best team in the ACC. With 56 points against Duke and 59 against Wake Forest, the offense is getting better and better.
Should Be Higher: The offense is the real deal. It’s balanced, it’s devastating, and it’s the type of team no one wants to face. We’ll know a whole lot more after the Notre Dame game this weekend.
Should Be Lower: Florida State 31, North Carolina 28. Virginia 41. No one else expected to be in the top 25 will have two losses this bad.
Up Next: Notre Dame
22. Tulsa Golden Hurricane 5-1
The Case For This Spot: The Golden Hurricane are on a five-game winning streak with a magical quality to its run, coming up with thrillers over SMU and Tulane over the last two weeks.
Should Be Higher: The resumé, is far, far, far, far better than BYU’s and Marshall’s, and – it could be argued – is better than Cincinnati’s. The lone loss was on the road to Oklahoma State in a 16-7 fight that went down to the wire.
Should Be Lower: It shouldn’t be. Tulsa deserves to be somewhere around the top 15 – especially with a 34-26 win over UCF.
Up Next: at Houston
21. Texas Longhorns 5-2
The Case For This Spot: On one side, Texas has just two losses to TCU and Oklahoma in games that could’ve gone either way. On the other side, it has wins over Texas Tech. Oklahoma State and West Virginia that also could’ve gone the other way.
Should Be Higher: The Longhorns are good enough to have come this close to beating Oklahoma, and they were able to get by Oklahoma State in Stillwater despite not playing all that well, but …
Should Be Lower: Again, they should’ve lost to Texas Tech and the defeat to TCU looks awful now.
Up Next: Iowa State
NEXT: Top 20 First College Football Playoff Rankings Prediction
College Football Playoff Rankings Prediction Top 20 Projection
20. USC Trojans 3-0
The Case For This Spot: It hasn’t been smooth, but the Trojans have managed to get to 3-0 in this weird year despite not playing all that well. Considering the first ranking a jumping off point. Everything will go up fast if the team starts to rock.
Should Be Higher: Talent-wise, the ability is there to come up with a big ranking if the offense kicks it in and starts to explode. An argument could be made that beating Utah in Salt Lake City is the best win by any Pac-12 team.
Should Be Lower: All three USC wins are against teams playing their openers, and it took miracles to get by Arizona State and Arizona.
Up Next: Colorado
19. Marshall Thundering Herd 7-0
The Case For This Spot: What more do you want out of the team? If you’re going to love BYU for being dominant, then what about the Herd, who have outscored opponents 262-71 with the closest game a 17-7 win over a great Appalachian State team.
Should Be Higher: The defense is for real – it has yet to allow more than 17 points and gave up 14 or fewer in six of the seven wins – and the team overall is getting better in blowout after blowout.
Should Be Lower: There’s the Appalachian State win, and … uhhhhh … okay, the Herd handed Florida Atlantic its only loss, but that’s not exactly like beating Florida.
Up Next: Rice (Dec. 5)
18. Iowa State Cyclones 6-2
The Case For This Spot: The Cyclones are on a roll with three straight wins, a victory over Oklahoma, and with a real shot to go to the Big 12 Championship if they keep this going. With a 45-0 win over Kansas State, the team might be peaking at the right time.
Should Be Higher: Iowa State 37, Oklahoma 30. If the committee likes the Sooners, then it needs to give the Cyclones a whole lot of credit.
Should Be Lower: Louisiana 31, Iowa State 14. In Ames. That might have been to open the season, but that, combined with the loss to Oklahoma State, hurt the overall cause. Outside of the win over OU, there’s a whole lot of nothing.
Up Next: at Texas
187. Oklahoma State Cowboys 5-2
The Case For This Spot: There are plenty of reasons to like the Cowboys with a few strong wins, one loss to Texas when OSU dominated, and a rough date at Oklahoma State. Being just outside of the top 15 in about right.
Should Be Higher: There’s a win over Iowa State to like and OSU handed Tulsa its only loss. Don’t dismiss the 27-13 victory over a dangerous West Virginia.
Should Be Lower: The loss to Texas was at home, and getting roasted by Oklahoma 41-13 the week before the rankings make it tough to make too much of a case to be any better than this.
Up Next: Texas Tech
16. Oregon Ducks 3-0
The Case For This Spot: Talent-wise, once it all comes together this is a top ten-caliber team. The offense has looked solid so far, but with just a three game sample size, this is a true guess for now.
Should Be Higher: It can’t be, unless the committee is basing this on the talent and upside. The body of work isn’t there.
Should Be Lower: Three games. There just aren’t any good wins considering Stanford, Washington State and UCLA are a combined 2-5.
Up Next: at Oregon State
NEXT: Top 15 First College Football Playoff Rankings Prediction
College Football Playoff Rankings Prediction Top 15 Projection
15. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns 7-1
The Case For This Spot: This is the one big test to know whether or not the College Football Playoff committee is on its game. Louisiana beat Iowa State 31-14 in Ames, and its one loss was in a 30-27 battle to Coastal Carolina. If the Ragin’ Cajuns are ranked ahead of the Cyclones, then be happy with the rest of the top 25.
Should Be Higher: It depends on where Coastal Carolina is ranked. Iowa State beat Oklahoma, and Louisiana gave Iowa State its worst loss of the year.
Should Be Lower: There are a whole lot of easy games on the slate, but this is actually about right. Remember, Arkansas State beat Kansas State at Kansas State, and Louisiana beat the Red Wolves.
Up Next: at ULM
14. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 8-0
The Case For This Spot: What more do you want? It has a Power Five win – okay, so it was at Kansas – that BYU and Cincinnati don’t, the defense has been outstanding, and the team is answering every challenge.
Should Be Higher: The Chanticleers gave Louisiana – who beat Iowa State – its only loss, and got by a terrific Appalachian State team who’s only loss was to an unbeaten Marshall.
Should Be Lower: Kansas, Campbell, South Alabama – there aren’t a ton of killers on the schedule, and there’s still the stigma of winning big in the Sun Belt.
Up Next: at Texas State
13. BYU Cougars 9-0
The Case For This Spot: From the very start of the season, BYU started the steamroller and has yet to stop. The nine wins are impressive, the team has been consistently great, and there hasn’t been a lick of drama.
Should Be Higher: You can only play who’s on the schedule. The Cougars had one test, and it rolled Boise State 51-17 on the road. The UTSA win was just 27-20, but no other game has been competitive.
Should Be Lower: Boise State was missing its starting backfield, and that’s really it for the challenging games. You and ten friends could hang 40 on the board against the rest of the schedule.
Up Next: San Diego State (Dec 12)
12. Georgia Bulldogs 5-2
The Case For This Spot: It’s a good compromise ranking. The team is very good, it has a QB now in JT Daniels, and the two losses are to Florida and Alabama away from home.
Should Be Higher: Talent-wise, if you think Alabama and Florida are top teams, then Georgia should be right there, too. The 27-6 whacking of Georgia helps, and the defense has been great other than against the two killers on the slate.
Should Be Lower: The Bulldogs had two tests and flunked them both. Struggling against a bad Mississippi State team at home doesn’t help.
Up Next: at South Carolina
11. Oklahoma Sooners 6-2
The Case For This Spot: The Sooners have improved over the last few weeks and now pass the eye test after a rough start. If it’s about how the teams look right now, OU should be in the top ten.
Should Be Higher: The Sooners destroyed a strong Oklahoma State and rolled through their last four games by a combined score of 198 to 64. The losses to Kansas State and Iowa State early on hurt, but those were late, tough defeats.
Should Be Lower: Two losses in a mediocre Big 12 – that’s a problem. using at home to Kansas State is a killer.
Up Next: at West Virginia
NEXT: Top Ten First College Football Playoff Rankings Prediction
College Football Playoff Rankings Prediction Top 10 Projection
10. Indiana Hoosiers 4-1
The Case For This Spot: Technically it’s not that big a deal right now, but Indiana beat Penn State, Michigan, and went on the road and shut out Michigan State before going into Columbus and throwing one hell of a scare into Ohio State.
Should Be Higher: If you believe that Ohio State is a top five team – maybe even top three – then the Hoosier performance in the 42-35 loss did nothing but raise its stock. There’s a great case to be made that this is the second-best team in the Big Ten.
Should Be Lower: Forget the brand names. The four teams Indiana beat are a combined 4-15 so far. Lost in the Hoosier narrative was how close the team came to losing to a now-0-5 Penn State team at home, getting a massive break on a game-winning two-point conversion call and being held to under 150 yards of total offense before the final few minutes.
Up Next: Maryland
9. Miami Hurricanes 7-1
The Case For This Spot: The one loss is at Clemson – no shame there. It’s a good placeholder spot here in the top ten with just the one loss and after fighting through win after win.
Should Be Higher: This is about right. There isn’t a great win to chirp about, but there are enough restaurant-quality ACC wins to at least be somewhere in the top ten.
Should Be Lower: Where’s the win? Beating Pitt and winning at NC State are the two best victories, but the team is hardly passing the eye test other than the pass rush and QB D’Eriq King.
Up Next: at Wake Forest
8. Northwestern Wildcats 5-0
The Case For This Spot: How much do you believe in the total defensive domination over a Wisconsin team that was totally dominant on defense in its first two games? The 43-3 win over Maryland and 21-20 victory over Iowa look a whole lot stronger now.
Should Be Higher: The Wildcats are unbeaten, dropped Wisconsin by ten, and no one is playing a more effective brand of defense right now.
Should Be Lower: It’s not like the offense did much of anything against the Badgers, and maybe the wins over Purdue, Nebraska, Iowa and Maryland weren’t that big a deal in an okay Big Ten.
Up Next: at Michigan State
7. Cincinnati Bearcats 8-0
The Case For This Spot: In this weird year, few teams have been as consistently amazing. The defense held the No. 1 UCF offense in relative check, and the offense has managed to bring it game after game.
Should Be Higher: The committee will likely give more respect to the schedule than the general public will. For now, beating a 7-2 Army, a 7-2 SMU, a 5-2 Memphis, and a 5-3 UCF will be given a whole lot of love.
Should Be Lower: And the win over the Power Five program is … ? Look, it’s a nice schedule and all, but there’s a difference between playing an almost all-Power Five schedule and an all-Group of Five slate.
Up Next: at Temple
6. Florida Gators 6-1
The Case For This Spot: The Gator offense is unstoppable, Kyle Trask is (probably) going to win the Heisman, and the blowout win over Georgia was special.
Should Be Higher: It was a close fight on the road to Texas A&M. It was an acceptable late loss in a 41-38 shootout. If you believe A&M should be in the top three, then Florida should be four.
Should Be Lower: The defense is just okay, and it wasn’t a pretty fight to get by Vanderbilt, but it can’t be lower and probably should be in the top five.
Up Next: Kentucky
NEXT: Top Five First College Football Playoff Rankings Prediction
College Football Playoff Rankings Prediction Top 5 Projection
5. Texas A&M Aggies 5-1
The Case For This Spot: Not being able to play over the last few weeks hurts the overall cause, but the Aggies beat Florida, were rocking over their last few games, and only lost to Alabama on the road.
Should Be Higher: Theoretically, Texas A&M could be No. 2 if you believe the Florida win was among the best of the season, if not the best. There’s something to be said for being 5-1 in the SEC.
Should Be Lower: It was a tough fight against Vanderbilt, the Mississippi State game was a bit too much of a fight, and … there’s no real case to be lower. It should probably be in the top four, maybe three.
Up Next: LSU
4. Ohio State Buckeyes 4-0
The Case For This Spot: Talent-wise, this is the best team in the Big 12 with the explosion and skill to match up with anyone. The offense is averaging well over 40 points per game. The win over Indiana will be enough to cement a spot in the top four.
Should Be Higher: It shouldn’t be. It would be a gift to be in the top three, but on talent level, a case could be made to be ahead of Notre Dame.
Should Be Lower: The defense has been shaky. Beating Indiana was tough, but the other three wins were against teams with a combined 2-12 record.
Up Next: at Illinois
3. Clemson Tigers 7-1
The Case For This Spot: The committee isn’t going to punish the Tigers too much for an overtime loss at Notre Dame without Trevor Lawrence and with the defense hurt. With Lawrence, the Tigers obliterated everything in their path, including handing Miami its only loss.
Should Be Higher: It shouldn’t be. The only case would be if Notre Dame is No. 1, but Alabama can’t and shouldn’t be lower than Clemson.
Should Be Lower: It’s not like Clemson struggled against Boston College and lost to Notre Dame because DJ Uiagalelei was under center. It’s possible Ohio State could be here.
Up Next: Pitt
2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish 8-0
The Case For This Spot: It’s an unbeaten team with the best win by anyone this season on the resumé. There hasn’t been a whole lot of drama outside of the win over Clemson.
Should Be Higher: That 47-40 overtime win over Clemson is better than anything Alabama has done, but Bama has two great wins – Georgia and Texas A&M.
Should Be Lower: There’s not a lot to like outside of the Clemson victory. Beating Pitt and Boston College just isn’t a big deal.
Up Next: at North Carolina
1. Alabama Crimson Tide 7-0
The Case For This Spot: The most dominant team in college football, this is a no-brainer with wins over Texas A&M and Georgia. No one has come closer than 16 to the Tide.
Should Be Lower: There isn’t a win like Notre Dame has over Clemson, and the defense should be a bit better, but that’s nitpicking.
Up Next: Auburn
