What will the College Football Playoff rankings be when they’re first released on Tuesday, November 24th?
In this craziest of INSANE years, how do you possibly put together a proper College Football Playoff Top 25? The committee is going to try doing it next week, to be released on Tuesday, November 24th.
Here’s the drill. We’re going to try protecting what the initial College Football Playoff Top 25 will be after next Saturday’s games. That means some calls have to be made on who’ll win, to go along with trying to read the minds of the committee.
A few ground rules when it comes to the College Football Playoff process.
1. The rankings are meant to capture the moment. They’re not set in stone, meaning the whole thing gets thrown out and everything starts all over again the following week. So if a team is ranked, say, 15th, it’s not a sure thing that it moves up with a win or down with a loss.
2. To generalize after six years of College Football Playoff rankings, the committee tends to like big wins, hates awful losses, and it doesn’t really penalize defeats to big teams. When they’re arguing in that room – again, in general – the big win gets the most attention.
3. Every spot in the rankings is argued over. There’s a debate over the No. 25 team, there’s an agreement, and then there’s a debate over the No. 24 spot, there’s an agreement, and so on. You might not agree with the rankings, but be secure in the knowledge that at least there was a discussion and thought process into every aspect.
And finally …
4. There are no hard rules. The committee can pick any teams it wants to. It goes by its own set of proprietary stats, strength of schedule is huge, and there’s a premium on head-to-head wins. After all of that, throw in the eye test to go along with the resumé.
And remember, the AP and Coaches polls don’t exist. The College Football Playoff rankings are their own separate world, and they’re the ones that matter.
So what will they be? Here’s the best guess for the first run of College Football Playoff rankings – again, for Tuesday the 24th, not this week …
College Football Playoff Rankings Prediction Top 25 Projection
25. North Carolina Tar Heels 6-2
The Tar Heels are going to be get crushed for the loss to Florida State – arguably the worst defeat by anyone in the top 25. There’s a decent win over Virginia Tech, but there isn’t one win to get fired up about. The Notre Dame game comes in two weeks.
Up Next: Notre Dame (Nov. 27)
24. Texas Longhorns 5-2
The overall resumé isn’t all that great, and a loss to TCU will sting, but the win at Oklahoma State and the close loss to Oklahoma will be just enough to sneak into the top 25.
Up Next: at Kansas
23. USC Trojans 2-0
MASSIVE assumption – there won’t be enough games to go off of to give USC a whole lot of credit. However, again, these rankings start over next week, so the more wins, the bigger the body of work to get credit for.
The committee won’t like the eye test of the first two wins over Arizona and Arizona State, and the overall metrics won’t work because Utah won’t have played anyone when it hosts USC next week. However, if the Trojans win, that will be the excuse needed to get close to the top 20.
Up Next: at Utah
22. Liberty Flames 8-0
This is a complete and total guess – even more than any of the other teams on this list. If Liberty loses to NC State this week, it’ll start around 22ish. If it wins, it won’t be crazy to assume it’ll be in the top ten with road wins over Virginia Tech, NC State, and – scoff, but it’s an ACC team – Syracuse. That would be three road wins over Power Five teams, while BYU and Cincinnati won’t have any.
So again, this ranking is the most fluid of the bunch – don’t get into a twist one way or another here.
Up Next: at NC State
21. Iowa State Cyclones 5-2
The College Football Playoff committee will catch the one glaring error in the other polls – Louisiana 31, Iowa State 14. The win over Oklahoma is big, but that’s offset by the loss to Oklahoma State. there won’t be any impressive wins past the one over the Sooners.
Up Next: Kansas State
NEXT: Top 20 First College Football Playoff Rankings Prediction
College Football Playoff Rankings Prediction Top 20 Projection
20. Tulsa Golden Hurricane 4-1
The lone loss was a close 16-7 battle against Oklahoma State, and wins over UCF on the road and SMU at home will look terrific overall. The problem will be that loss to OSU – it’s a barrier to get past several other teams, starting with, of course …
Up Next: Tulane
19. Oklahoma State Cowboys 5-1
The call is that Oklahoma State loses to Oklahoma next week. If it doesn’t, then move the Cowboys into the top ten in the College Football Playoff ranking projections, and move Tulsa WAY up as well. There isn’t a great win over
Up Next: at Oklahoma
18. Oklahoma Sooners 5-2
The committee takes the entire body of work into account, but it’s not like the old BCS days when a game played yesterday means as much as a game played in Week 1. The call is a win over Oklahoma State coming up, giving the Sooners the momentum of a five-game winning streak that includes a victory over Texas.
Up Next: Oklahoma State
17. Marshall Thundering Herd 7-0
The strength of schedule is going to be awful, but the win over Appalachian State is fine, and the team has been totally dominant. The committee will be looking at an 8-0 team after next week that will have won all its games by double-digits.
Up Next: Charlotte
16. Oregon Ducks 2-0
Like USC, Oregon’s ranking will change quickly as soon as it has more wins to get excited about. The wins over Stanford and Washington State were good – both by double digits – but the committee will want to see more of them. The eye test will take over here.
Up Next: UCLA
NEXT: Top 15 First College Football Playoff Rankings Prediction
College Football Playoff Rankings Prediction Top 15 Projection
15. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns 7-1
Louisiana 31, Iowa State 14, in Ames. Combine that with a win over Georgia Southern – who’ll have a good record – with with the only loss to unbeaten Coastal Carolina by three, and the Ragin’ Cajuns should start out just outside of the top 15.
Up Next: Central Arkansas
14. BYU Cougars 9-0
The two toughest guesses in this – Liberty, and BYU. Remember, the committee might like the eye test, but it’s almost ALL about the schedule and resumés. For example, Minnesota was 8-0 to start last season, and it was stuck at 17th in the first College Football Playoff rankings. Baylor was 8-0 and was 12th. The Boise State win will carry some weight for BYU, but not enough.
Up Next: North Alabama
13. Northwestern Wildcats 4-0
If the Wildcats beat Wisconsin, they’re probably in the top seven, and surely the top ten. The call is that they’ll lose to the Badgers but won’t be punished too much for it. There won’t be a great win on the schedule, but beating Iowa and Maryland would look okay.
Up Next: Wisconsin
12. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 7-0
This might be the most argued team in the room. If the Chanticleers beat Appalachian State on Saturday, combined with the win at Louisiana, along with a win over a Georgia Southern team with a good record, along with a win over an Arkansas State team that beat Kansas State on the road, along with a win over Kansas on the road …
Up Next: Appalachian State
11. Georgia Bulldogs 4-2
The committee won’t know quite what to do with Georgia. The losses to Alabama and Florida were ugly, but there’s a win over Auburn, relative blowouts in all four victories, and the overall talent level and preconceived notions will be enough to make this one of the most respected two-loss teams.
Up Next: Mississippi State
NEXT: Top Ten First College Football Playoff Rankings Prediction
College Football Playoff Rankings Prediction Top 10 Projection
10. Indiana Hoosiers 4-0
Remember, this is still a beauty contest based on the whims of the judges. These are college football lifers who’ll see wins over Penn State, Michigan and Michigan State as victories over big-name teams, all while looking good doing it. There won’t be a whole lot of punishment for losing at Ohio State – assuming it is a loss.
Up Next: at Ohio State
9. Wisconsin Badgers 2-0
Admittedly, this could be way, way, way off, only because the team played just three games. While the assumption is that the Pac-12 teams on the list aren’t going to get any love or recognition for their lack of games played so far, if Wisconsin gets by an unbeaten Northwestern on the road, to go along with absolutely dominant performances over Illinois and Michigan, the committee will keep arguing this team up and up and up the rankings.
Up Next: at Northwestern
8. Cincinnati Bearcats 8-0
A win over UCF this week actually wouldn’t be that great, but it still looks and sounds nice to get by the nation’s most dangerous offense. If the Bearcats truck the Knights like they’ve done to everyone else, no one has come within 14 of them, they might be knocking on the door of the top five even without a really good win or a victory over a Power Five program.
Up Next: at UCF
7. Miami Hurricanes 7-1
The eye test isn’t great, but the overall metrics on Miami aren’t going to be that bad. There’s no great win, but there are a whole lot of decent ones. The blowout loss at Clemson will be almost totally forgiven as the committee looks at the good Power Five record in this strange year.
Up Next: Georgia Tech
6. Clemson Tigers 8-1
Obviously this initial ranking won’t matter. If Clemson beats Florida State, Pitt and Virginia Tech, and then wins the ACC Championship, it’s in the College Football Playoff.
The blowout win over Miami might be enough to get the Tigers into the top five – and it’s Clemson, so maybe the top four – but the guess is that for now, to open things up, it’ll be shockingly low in the first go-round of rankings.
Up Next: at Florida State
NEXT: Top Five First College Football Playoff Rankings Prediction
College Football Playoff Rankings Prediction Top 5 Projection
5. Florida Gators 5-1
Combine the explosiveness of the offense, the play of QB Kyle Trask – let’s just call him Heisman-Elect Kyle Trask – blowout wins over six SEC teams, assuming the win over Vanderbilt, and the acceptable late close loss to Texas A&M on the road, and this is likely a top five team in the first rankings. The blowout win over Georgia will be enough to push the Gators just past Clemson.
Up Next: at at Vanderbilt
4. Texas A&M Aggies 5-1
It’s time to speak College Football Playoff committee. Hand Florida its only loss, blowout South Carolina not road, get by Ole Miss in a fun firefight this week, and the only loss is at Alabama. It’s all going to translate into a CFP top four spot in the rankings.
Up Next: Ole Miss
3. Ohio State Buckeyes 3-0
The overall body of work just isn’t that great. Nebraska isn’t going to technically be a great win, and everyone is whacking around Penn State. However, handing Indiana its first loss of the season – along with being Ohio freaking State – will be enough to overcome the small sample size.
Up Next: Indiana
2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish 8-0
The Irish beat Clemson. No matter how it happened, no matter who it was playing, it beat Clemson. There aren’t a whole lot of other great wins on the slate, but getting by North Carolina on the road next week – assuming they do – would be a thing, and … they beat Clemson. That, along with the bigger sample size will put them just past the Buckeyes.
Up Next: at North Carolina
1. Alabama Crimson Tide 6-0
This isn’t going to be the lock you might think it is. Notre Dame will have a very, very strong case for No. 1, but beating Texas A&M by 28, destroying Georgia, and rolling through the SEC with blowout win after blowout win will be enough to get the top spot in the first College Football Playoff rankings for the second time in three years.
Up Next: Kentucky
