Welcome to Before The Snap, For The Win’s college football series where we’ll break down the sport’s trending storylines, examine each week’s biggest matchups and track the College Football Playoff and Heisman Trophy races.
After one more weekend of games, the College Football Playoff committee will announced Sunday which four teams will be selected for the playoff and compete for a national championship.
But if there aren’t any upsets in the conference championship games for the top-4 teams — Alabama, Notre Dame, Clemson and Ohio State — it’s likely they’ll be the playoff teams. (Earlier this week, we explained what impact those potential upsets could have on the playoff picture.)
Here’s a look at the top-10 teams’ chances to make the playoff, advance to the national championship game and win the national title as of Thursday, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor and FPI. If they’re playing for a conference championship this weekend, their chances of winning are also included.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (10-0)
- Playoff: 96.9 percent
- National championship game: 74.3 percent
- Win championship: 54.1 percent
- Win conference: 88.8 percent
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0)
- Playoff: 85.4 percent
- National championship game: 46.2 percent
- Win championship: 21.0 percent
- Win conference: 91.0 percent
3. Clemson Tigers (9-1)
- Playoff: 63.4 percent
- National championship game: 34.3 percent
- Win championship: 13.7 percent
- Win conference: 70.2 percent
4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-0)
- Playoff: 61.3 percent
- National championship game: 20.8 percent
- Win championship: 5.6 percent
- Win conference: 29.8 percent
5. Texas A&M Aggies (7-1)
- Playoff: 34.6 percent
- National championship game: 9.5 percent
- Win championship: 2.1 percent
6. USC Trojans (5-0)
- Playoff: 15.7 percent
- National championship game: 3.7 percent
- Win championship: 0.7 percent
- Win conference: 56.7 percent
7. Cincinnati Bearcats (8-0)
- Playoff: 15.1 percent
- National championship game: 3.1 percent
- Win championship: 0.7 percent
- Win conference: 80.0 percent
8. Iowa State Cyclones (8-2)
- Playoff: 11.8 percent
- National championship game: 3.2 percent
- Win championship: 0.5 percent
- Win conference: 33.9 percent
9. Oklahoma Sooners (7-2)
- Playoff: 4.3 percent
- National championship game: 1.6 percent
- Win championship: 0.5 percent
- Win conference: 66.1 percent
10. Florida Gators (8-2)
- Playoff: 4.1 percent
- National championship game: 1.5 percent
- Win championship: 0.4 percent
- Win conference: 11.2 percent
We’re not expecting too many upsets this weekend, so based on how we think conference championship weekend will play out, here are our predictions for the four College Football Playoff teams:
Evan’s CFP prediction: 1. Alabama, 2. Notre Dame, 3. Ohio State, 4. Texas A&M
Michelle’s CFP prediction: 1. Alabama, 2. Clemson, 3. Ohio State, 4. Notre Dame
