The second round of the College Football Playoff rankings were released, here are 25 instant reactions from the November 9th version
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College Football Playoff Rankings: Top 25 Instant Reactions
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25. The College Football Playoff committee basically held serve
It’s not bad. There were a few questionable calls, but nothing all that insane. It was a tough week because everyone but Georgia stunk – at least up top – so there wasn’t much room for movement. The committee didn’t do anything crazy, but there will be a whole lot happening next week after a big weekend of games coming up.
24. San Diego State beat Utah, so …
The committee process is all about getting the pecking order right through the meticulous way of going through each factor – more on the big debate in a moment.
San Diego State lost to Fresno State, and for those who stay up until the wee hours of the morning, it hasn’t looked great in a slew of other games. But if Utah is in at 6-3, putting SDSU in – the Aztecs won 33-31 between the two – was a must.
23. The Penn State factor, Part 1
Penn State should’ve been in somewhere. YEAH, the loss to Illinois is a killer, but it beat Auburn (17), beat Wisconsin (18) in Madison, and lost to Iowa after losing QB Sean Clifford early on and lost in a good fight with Ohio State. Not a big deal – it’ll get in the top 25 if it beats Michigan – but there wasn’t much respect.
22. Watch out for Houston
It’s not ranked, but it’s about to play a huge role. The opening day loss to Texas Tech is a drag, but it wasn’t that bad – the Red Raiders are currently 5-4. There aren’t a slew of great wins, and the schedule isn’t going to get a whole lot stronger. However, that doesn’t matter.
What does is that it’s probably going to play Cincinnati for the American Athletic Conference championship. If the Cougars win out, it’s probably pushing the Bearcats out of the New Year’s Six, much less the College Football Playoff.
21. Louisiana is probably on the Top 25 bubble
Someone from the Sun Belt will end up being in the top 25, but it probably won’t be until the end. Louisiana destroyed Appalachian State, but it doesn’t have any great wins and isn’t looking all that impressive. The only loss is to Texas in the opener, and it gets at Troy, at Liberty, ULM to close. If it wins out, it’ll be deep in the mix for a New Year’s Six appearance.
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20. Purdue at 19 is very, very nice
That’s giving a ton of love for a team with big wins that happened at the time. Was Iowa really the second-best team in the country when the Boilermakers won a few weeks go?
No. The Michigan State win was outstanding, but it soon might not seem quite as strong. The home loss to Minnesota hurts now, and getting beaten by double-digits to Wisconsin and Notre Dame doesn’t help.
19. The Auburn-Ole Miss issue
This actually should be Penn State Factor Part 2. Auburn lost at Penn State when everyone was wearing white t-shirts. It also lost to Georgia, and it just lost at Texas A&M. All three of those games were on the road, but it managed to beat Ole Miss by 11 just before losing to A&M. Auburn is 17, Ole Miss 15 – that technically should be reversed.
18. Pitt at 21 …
This is an interesting one. The loss to Western Michigan is an anchor, and the loss to Miami two weeks ago doesn’t help, but winning at Tennessee looks great now and it’s still the only team since 2014 to beat Clemson in the regular season by double-digits.
Why should you pay attention? The Panthers will probably be in the ACC Championship with a shot at a New Year’s Six game. And it might have to beat …
17. NC State didn’t really move up that much
The Wolfpack beat Florida State and Louisville in back-to-back weeks, and it has a win over Clemson on the resumé, but it’s going to come down to the next three weeks. It needs to beat Wake Forest, then Syracuse, then North Carolina. Going from 19 to 16 is fine, but that’s a bit too generous.
16. Wake Forest didn’t really drop that much
The committee gave a whole lot of respect to a tough loss to North Carolina, and it matters. 12 is still within range. No one’s talking about it – and I don’t think it’ll happen – but if Wake Forest closes out with wins over North Carolina, at Clemson, at Boston College, and with an ACC Championship, don’t be totally stunned if a one-loss Power Five champion ends up ahead of Cincinnati. Again, it’s probably not going to happen.
15. UTSA is in at 23
Of course it’s a nice moment for the program, and it might be a week overdue, but it’s more than just a cute story. If it beats Southern Miss, UAB, and wins at North Texas before taking the Conference USA title, it’s probably going to be the highest-ranked Group of Five champion if Cincinnati loses along the way. UTSA in the New Year’s Six would be one of the best things about 2021.
14. BYU is sneaking up, and it could be a huge deal
The Cougars (14) need Baylor to lose again – they lost to the Bears 38-24 in Waco a few weeks ago. However, they beat Virginia, Washington State, Arizona, Arizona State, and most importantly, Utah. If it closes out with wins over Georgia Southern and USC on the road, it could end up in range for one of the New Year’s Six games.
13. The Penn State factor, Part 2
Penn State didn’t get into the top 25, but games against it earned a ton of respect.
Wisconsin lost at home in the opener to the Nittany Lions – good loss. Auburn lost at Penn State – good loss. Iowa got by Penn State – great win and enough to overcome other issues. Ohio State beat Penn State – it’s the strongest win to stay ahead of Cincinnati.
Yeah, the Nittany Lions should probably be in the top 25.
12. The committee got the Big Ten right on this
Give the committee credit for the process. Wisconsin is crushing teams now thanks to the No. 1 defense in the country – and be a whole lot over Georgia. It’s 18, it beat Purdue (19) and Iowa (20). That’s how this works, and the Grapevine 13 got it right.
11. Wisconsin just got a whole lot of love at 18
The Badgers were a hot mess over the first half of the season, but the committee gave credit to losses against Notre Dame and Michigan, and in the opener against Penn State. It has won its last five games over Illinois, Army, Purdue, Iowa, and Rutgers by a combined score of 163-37.
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10. Arkansas is STILL ranked too low
Arkansas should’ve been in the first round of the College Football Playoff rankings. It might have lost to Auburn, and it also lost at Ole Miss and Georgia – no big whoop. Those were three totally acceptable defeats, and there was one whopper of a win over Texas A&M. It took a victory over Mississippi State to get the Hogs in the top 25 … at 25. They should be in the top 20.
9. We have a Pac-12 team … at least a second one
Oregon was in the first round of College Football Playoff rankings, and also from the Pac-12 was … was … was … yeah. There wasn’t anyone else. Here’s the problem for Oregon. It needs Utah to keep winning, and then it has to get a win, and probably again in the Pac-12 Championship.
Beat Utah twice, and there won’t be any other Pac-12 teams in the top 25, making the Oregon schedule – technically – that much lighter as it tries to hold off Ohio State in the rankings.
8. Texas A&M at 11 is sneaky-interesting
Shhhhhhhhhh, but Texas A&M is more in the College Football Playoff chase than you might think. It has losses to Arkansas and Mississippi State, but that seems like 11 years ago. After beating Alabama, the Aggies have annihilated everyone with wins over Missouri, South Carolina, and with a 20-3 win over Auburn last week.
If it closes out with wins over at Ole Miss, Prairie View A&M, and at LSU, and if Alabama happens to lose once more in the regular season, Texas A&M will play Georgia for the SEC Championship. Win that and things get very, very interesting.
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7. Oklahoma at 8 isn’t a big deal
Most fans understand this, but too many people who know better are making the mistake of thinking Oklahoma needs Cincinnati to lose. No way, no how, NO CHANCE will Oklahoma be left out of the College Football Playoff if it finishes as the 13-0 Big 12 champion. It would be one of – maybe – two unbeaten Power Five champs.
And yeah, if it goes 12-1 with a Big 12 championship – at Baylor, Iowa State, at Oklahoma State, and with, probably, one of them again in the title game to close – it’s probably in, too.
6. Notre Dame at 9 seems a little off
This one might be the biggest process whiff – it doesn’t make sense. The Irish have five wins over Power Five programs, it whacked 18 Wisconsin 41-13 – the final score is misleading, but there’s a scoreboard for a reason – beat Purdue and North Carolina each by ten.
Purdue beat Michigan State, Notre Dame’s only loss is to No. 5 Cincinnati. Since Michigan State beat Michigan, Notre Dame should be No. 6 if the committee was doing this right.
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5. No, it’s not “slide on up” for Cincinnati
No, the College Football Playoff rankings don’t work this way. It’s not as easy as team loses, slides down, team wins, slides up. It went that way this week, and it might next week, too. Yeah, Cincinnati might be in the top four and could be as high as 3 in the process, and then … yoink.
If there are four viable Power Five conference teams – whether they’re unbeaten or one-loss champions, or if Alabama and Georgia are both 12-1 – Cincinnati could get knocked out. It still needs a whole lot of help no matter what, and it certainly could happen with what’s coming up for all the other top-ranked teams.
4. If Michigan and Michigan State did that, why not Ohio State over Oregon?
Here’s where this gets interesting. The committee can try to explain it away all it wants, but Michigan over Michigan State was a big call – more on that in a moment. Okay, so if the head-to-head thing can be blown off one week later, how is Oregon still ranked ahead of Ohio State?
The Stanford loss – while a total choke by the Ducks with a slew of surrounding circumstances – looks totally awful now, and it’s not like Oregon is burning it up on a weekly basis.
No, the Nebraska win wasn’t anything special, but Ohio State got the road win, it beat Penn State, and obliterated all the bad teams in its path for a five-game stretch after losing to the Ducks.
3. Michigan ranked over Michigan State? Okay …
Here’s why Michigan State fans should be in a snit.
The committee got the process right in a whole slew of ways. With a few other variables thrown in, San Diego State beat Utah – Aztecs ranked higher than the Utes. 18 Wisconsin beat 19 Purdue and 20 Iowa and Purdue beat Iowa. 13 Baylor beat 14 BYU. 3 Oregon beat 4 Ohio State.
For the most part – the Notre Dame ranking aside – the committee got this right in a Respect The Results sort of way, and then it blew it all off by putting Michigan ahead of Michigan State. It’s just that type of inconsistency that makes fans furious.
Oh, and …
2. Here’s why Michigan over Michigan State matters
If Michigan State wins out against Maryland, at Ohio State, Penn State, and then in the Big Ten Championship, it’s on the College Football Playoff no matter what.
However, if it beats Penn State and Maryland and loses tastefully to Ohio State, and Michigan also beats Penn State and Maryland and loses to Ohio State by an acceptable margin, with this flip-flop in the rankings – if it holds – guess who goes to the Rose Bowl?
If the Big Ten West team win the Big Ten Championship, it’s off to the Rose Bowl, and it’ll be Ohio State if it somehow loses again and still wins the Big Ten title. But if the Buckeyes win out, the higher-ranked team between Michigan and Michigan State will go to Pasadena.
That just changed.
1. Did you win your Power Five conference championship?
It’s the constant broken record, but it has to be repeated over and over and over and over again, because it seems like too many are trying to create a narrative and some excitement that probably isn’t there.
No matter what these rankings are now, and what they’ll be next week, and what they’ll be for a few weeks after that, it all comes down to those final rankings after the conference championships.
The committee can take anyone it wants, but it always starts with this. Did you win your Power Five conference championship? Did you go unbeaten? If yes, then in. Did you win the championship and finish with one loss? Unless the circumstances are extraordinary, if yes, then almost certainly in.
That doesn’t mean Cincinnati can’t get in, but it needs to win out and it needs more teams to start dropping.
And that’s what next week’s rankings are for – they’re about to be a whole lot different.
