Five reactions and what we learned from the second rankings from the College Football Playoff committee.
– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak
– This week’s big whiff
– The known unknown
– The Group of Five situation
– What it all really means
5. Rapid-Fire First Reaction To Latest College Football Playoff Rankings
Overall, the rankings are relatively clean. There’s one massive glitch that somehow wasn’t fixed after last week, but I’ll get to that in a second. Other than that, there’s not much to get into a twist over, except for …
The rationale for Georgia at 4 doesn’t make any sense. Georgia might have beaten Florida and Notre Dame, but it had those two wins on the resumé ,last week, too, when it was at 6 and Bama was at 3. Bama’s loss to no-brainer No. 1 LSU was far more acceptable than Georgia’s home loss to a South Carolina team that’s probably going to end up 4-8. Nothing actually changed when it comes to the Georgia vs. Bama debate.
LSU being No. 1 only really matters if and when Alabama becomes the No. 4 seed. The Tigers aren’t going to budge from this spot the rest of the way if they win out. You’ve been warned over and over again – they didn’t kill the beast. Bama is still more than alive. More on that, too, in a moment.
Technically, Florida should be higher. Its two losses came to No. 1 LSU and No. 4 Georgia. It’s win over No. 12 Auburn is better than anything Ohio State, Clemson, Alabama, Oregon, Utah, Penn State and Oklahoma have done – and that’s the problem with all of this. A team shouldn’t be punished just because it had to play nasty teams, and others didn’t. With the combination of resume and eye-test – like the committee uses, Florida should’ve settled in around seven or so, and …
Minnesota should be higher than 8. The rest of the body of work isn’t anything great, but it just beat the CFP-declared No. 4 team. If the committee loved Penn State that much, an unbeaten Gopher team should be ahead of Oregon and Utah.
Iowa’s losses? Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin. The No. 20 team should be ranked higher than No. 17 Cincinnati, No. 18 Memphis, and definitely No. 19 Texas.
There’s no chance anyone on the committee has actually seen Boise State play since the win over a mediocre Florida State team. Otherwise, it wouldn’t be ranked ahead of No. 23 Navy or No. 25 Appalachian State.
Every sort of newsy media outlet will be fully-focused on the deepest inner-workings of our government over the next several weeks and months with these impeachment hearings … and yet the idea of turning a camera on the College Football Playoff committee as it argues, debates, and reasons through the process is a non-starter.
– Auburn really did beat Oregon
– Bama needs to beat LSU
– Penn State vs. Ohio State
– What it all really means
NEXT: This week’s big whiff was …
4. Baylor at 13 and Oklahoma at 10
Last week, the committee blew it by having an unbeaten Minnesota – who beat Illinois – behind a two-loss Wisconsin team that lost to Illinois.
It also, somehow, had the Kansas State team that beat Oklahoma behind Oklahoma. Okay, at the time, Kansas State had a few losses.
One of them was to Baylor.
It’s not like Baylor doesn’t have any real wins.
It beat Iowa State, just like Oklahoma just did.
It beat Oklahoma State, a ranked win.
It beat TCU, and it got past Kansas State 31-12.
That’s the same Kansas State that beat Oklahoma.
Is Oklahoma better than Baylor? I think so, and so does most of the world that made it a ten-point favorite in Waco. But the world also thought Penn State was almost a touchdown better than Minnesota, too.
The eye-test doesn’t work. Either we’re going by the results, or what’s the point? At the moment, like it or not, Baylor is 9-0, Oklahoma is 8-1, and Baylor passed a test that Oklahoma failed.
Based on resumés, swap 13 Baylor and 10 Oklahoma and you have it about right.
– This week’s big whiff
– The known unknown
– The Group of Five situation
– What it all really means
NEXT: The known unknown is …
3. The known unknown is …
Who’ll finish 12-1 with a Power Five conference championship?
2018 Ohio State is the only team that finished 12-1 or better with a Power Five championship to not make it into the College Football Playoff, and that’s because Notre Dame went 12-0.
(Yeah, Georgia finished fifth and Ohio State sixth, but had the Irish been 11-1, but guessing the committee would’ve put the Big Ten champ in.)
Will there be a 12-1 Pac-12 champion? Will there be a 12-1 Big 12 champion?
A 12-1 SEC or Big Ten champion – if there is one or both – will be in no matter what this year, and a 12-1 ACC champion will almost certainly be out no matter what. But for now, let’s assume that LSU, Ohio State and Clemson all win out.
If that happens, then No. 4 Georgia would get hit with another loss. Or, for now, let’s say Georgia suffered its second loss of the year this weekend at Auburn. Next week, Alabama would almost certainly move up from 5 to 4.
Would the committee set a new precedent and keep out a 12-1 Power Five conference champ – again, if there is one from the Big 12 or Pac-12 – for an 11- 1 Alabama who’s only loss was by five to the No. 1 team in the country?
Or, would it keep Bama in at 4 all throughout the process, and then pull a 2014 TCU and drop it out of the top four in the final rankings for a 12-1 conference champion?
At the very least, Alabama is hardly dead like many are saying it is.
– Rapid-fire first reaction
– The known unknown
– The Group of Five situation
– What it all really means
NEXT: The Group of Five situation
2. Appalachian State is in better shape than you think
Welcome to the cannibalization of a conference.
Cincinnati is the highest-ranked Group of Five team at 17, Memphis is 18, and Navy is 23. SMU still has just one loss, but it dropped out of the top 25 entirely.
If any American Athletic Conference team wins the conference title and goes 12-1, it’s off to the Cotton Bowl as the Group of Five’s representative in the New Year’s Six.
Cincinnati, though, still has to go to USF and Memphis and play Temple.
Memphis has to go to Houston and USF along with the game against the Bearcats.
Navy plays Notre Dame this week, and closes with SMU, at Houston, and Army, and SMU finishes with at Navy and Tulane – but it probably won’t win the West, or the conference, so it’s out of the mix.
Basically, they’re all going to beat each other up.
Boise State is playing like a team just begging for another loss. It’ll beat New Mexico and Colorado State, but it could lose at Utah State, and it could certainly lose the Mountain West Championship.
Appalachian State now has won over North Carolina and South Carolina on the road. The one loss to Georgia Southern stinks, but at least the Eagles will end up going bowling.
12-1 with a Sun Belt title might just give ASU the big stage.
– Rapid-fire first reaction
– The known unknown
– The Group of Five situation
– What it all really means
NEXT: What this all really means …
1. What this all really means …
Yeah, yeah, yeah … this all has to play itself out, and we’ll know the answers soon enough.
But what fun is that? The wild and rampant speculation is what makes this all a blast.
At the very least, we know that seven teams completely and totally control their own destinies. If any or four of these seven win out, they’re in, and it won’t matter what Alabama, Oregon, Utah and/or Oklahoma does.
No. 1 LSU – win out, and in as the No. 1 seed. Lose one game and finish 12-1, 100% in if it’s the SEC champ, 98% in if it loses the conference title game.
No. 2 Ohio State – win out, and in as no worse than the No. 2 seed. Lose one game and finish 12-1, 100% in if it’s the Big Ten camp, let’s just say 75% shot of being in if it loses the conference title game.
No. 3 Clemson – win out, and in no matter what. Lose one game, and let’s eyeball this as 90% certain of being out because of its schedule. 95% out if it loses the ACC Championship.
No. 4 Georgia – win out, and in no matter what. Beating Auburn at Auburn and taking out – likely – No. 1 LSU would put the Dawgs in as a two or three seed.
No. 8 Minnesota – win out, and in no matter what. Lose a game, but beat Ohio State for the Big Ten championship, and … 99% in no matter what. Barring an LSU loss, beating the Buckeyes would be the best win by anyone this year.
No. 9 Penn State – win out, and in no matter what. A 12-1 Big Ten champ is in, especially if it beats Ohio State along the way, and either gets revenge on Minnesota, or beats Wisconsin.
No. 13 Baylor – win out, and in no matter what. No way, no how, no chance is a 13-0 Power Five champion not getting into the College Football Playoff. That would mean the Big Ten and SEC championship losers are absolutely out.
Everyone else … win out, and hope for the best.
– Rapid-fire first reaction
– This week’s big whiff
– The known unknown
– The Group of Five situation
– What it all really means
