Five reactions and what we learned from the from the first College Football Playoff rankings of 2020.
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– This week’s big whiff
– The known unknown
– The Cincinnati situation
– What it all really means
5. Rapid-Fire First Reaction To Latest College Football Playoff Rankings
They’re fine. There’s one GIGANTIC misfire – we’ll get into that in a moment – but overall, they’re okay considering the committee has to compare apples to a different types of apples in this year without a whole lot of non-conference games to go by.
They got the Texas A&M-over-Florida thing right. That was the obvious one they couldn’t miss to have any credibility, and they didn’t. Remember, it doesn’t really matter all that much – the Gators control their own destiny, and Texas A&M doesn’t.
LSU being No. 1 only really matters if and when Alabama becomes the No. 4 seed. The Tigers aren’t going to budge from this spot the rest of the way if they win out. You’ve been warned over and over again – they didn’t kill the beast. Bama is still more than alive. More on that, too, in a moment.
So, this thought by Matt Hayes. Georgia gets TRUCKED by Alabama and Georgia, and its best win over over an okay – but to be fair, top 22-ranked – Auburn team, and it’s ninth. Indiana looked great against Ohio State and is 12th.
There needs to be a detailed explanation besides any sort of “eye test” for exactly how and why the College Football Playoff committee ranked 6-2 Oklahoma 11th and 6-2 Iowa State – who beat the Sooners, who also lost to Kansas State – 13th. More on that in a moment.
2-1 Wisconsin is getting a TON of love at 16 for beating bad Illinois and Michigan teams and not doing a blessed thing in a meltdown against Northwestern.
So … Northwestern is 5-0 playing an all Power Five schedule. It beat CFP No. 24 Iowa and CFP No. 16 Wisconsin and it’s No. 8. Cincinnati is No. 7 with no Power Five wins and no victories over any College Football Playoff-ranked teams.
The eye test desperately has to be eliminated from the College Football Playoff process. Now.
– This week’s big whiff
– The known unknown
– The Cincinnati situation
– What it all really means
NEXT: This week’s big whiff was …
4. Sun Belt 3, Big 12 0
Coastal Carolina opened the season with a dominant 38-23 win at Kansas. Okay, that’s nice, but beating Kansas is about as difficult as ordering Subway.
That same day, an Arkansas State team that’s 3-6 – with losses to Texas State and Troy on the schedule – beat Kansas State in Manhattan.
Kansas State beat Oklahoma at Oklahoma.
When Arkansas State was doing its thing, and just before Coastal Carolina went off, Louisiana was handing Iowa State a 31-14 win in Ames.
Iowa State beat Oklahoma.
Since then, Coastal Carolina has gone unbeaten, including a win over Louisiana – handing the Ragin’ Cajuns their only loss of the year.
Oh sure, Oklahoma looks stronger now, and Iowa State has improved as the season has gone on, but maybe it’s because they’re playing in a Big 12 conference loaded with a boatload of mediocre-to-bad teams.
Was Louisiana ranked? No.
Was Coastal Carolina ranked ahead of Oklahoma or Iowa State? Very no.
This was the PhD level test for the College Football Playoff committee and its first rankings, and it flunked very, very, very hard.
– Rapid-Fire First Reaction
– The known unknown
– The Cincinnati situation
– What it all really means
NEXT: The known unknown is …
3. The known unknown is …
How high can the Pac-12 really get?
(Ha, ha … take that any way you want to.)
I have the unwavering belief that if an unbeaten Oregon or Washington plays an unbeaten USC in the Pac-12 Championship, the winner is going to get into the College Football Playoff. And why?
I have the unwavering belief that the College Football Playoff committee will never, ever, EVER leave out an unbeaten Power Five conference champion if there’s one open spot.
Well, almost never, ever, EVER.
I do think an unbeaten Pac-12 is out if Florida beats an unbeaten Alabama in the SEC championship – assuming Big Ten and ACC champs are in, too – and I won’t be shocked if Clemson and Notre Dame get in, or Texas A&M getting credit as a one-loss team.
However, the College Football Playoff committee put Oregon at 15 and USC at 18 almost as a starting point. There wouldn’t be a big argument if these two were ranked way lower considering they each played just three games so far.
But now we know that the Pac-12 is at least on the radar. The big thing about this is how the league has to go forward with non-conference games. The idea of going out and schedule CFP 14 BYU isn’t quite as important now.
– Rapid-Fire First Reaction
– This week’s big whiff
– The Cincinnati situation
– What it all really means
NEXT: The Group of Five situation
2. The College Football Playoff committee is mean (not really)
Cincinnati isn’t getting into the College Football Playoff.
Even if it beats Tulsa twice, at the end of the day – or the end of the rankings process – the absence of any Power Five wins should be just enough to be a rock-hard ceiling to bust through.
Cincinnati doesn’t get in over an unbeaten or one-loss ACC, Big Ten or SEC champion.
It doesn’t get in over a one-loss Notre Dame that loses the ACC Championship, or a one-loss Alabama if that loss is in the SEC Championship, or Texas A&M if it finishes with just the one loss to Alabama.
It probably doesn’t get in over a Miami team if it finishes with just one loss to Clemson, and an argument could be made that it wouldn’t deserve to get in over Northwestern if it gets to the Big Ten Championship unbeaten, and then plays well in a loss to Ohio State.
It would be interesting to see the Bearcats get their shot – to a point, I’m more for an unbeaten team get a chance over team that had its shot and sort of blew it – but it’s not happening.
The College Football Playoff committee showed Cincinnati a picture of the Thanksgiving turkey with the No. 7 ranking, but it won’t let it eat.
– Rapid-Fire First Reaction
– This week’s big whiff
– The known unknown
– What it all really means
NEXT: What this all really means …
1. What this all really means …
For all the complaining and whining and nitpicking over which team should be ranked in the mid-teens instead of the lower-teens, it comes down to this.
Who controls their own destiny?
More than anything else, these first rankings are a jumping off point. They get thrown out before next week and the committee starts over again.
Here’s who is in by winning out.
No. 1 Alabama
Win out, and it’s the No. 1 seed playing in the Sugar Bowl. Lose to Florida in a close fight in the SEC Championship, and it’s still almost certainly in.
No. 2 Notre Dame
Same as Alabama, win out, and it’s at worst the No. 2 seed. Even if it gets up to the No. 1 spot, it’s probably going to the Rose Bowl no matter what. If it beats North Carolina this week, goes unbeaten in the regular season, and loses to Clemson in a close fight in the ACC championship, put it in at the 4.
No. 3 Clemson
It’s cut-and-day. Win out, or be out. Win out, and Clemson is the No. 2 seed going to the Rose Bowl, or to the Sugar if it gets up to the No. 1 spot. Lose once more, and it’s almost certainly done.
No. 4 Ohio State
Win out, and in no matter what as no worse than the No. 3 seed and the Rose Bowl. Win the Big Ten championship with one loss – like, if this is the year Michigan somehow gets it done – and it’s in as the 4. Lose to Northwestern in the Big Ten championship, and it gets dicey.
No. 6 Florida
Win out, beat Alabama in the SEC Championship, and it’s either the 2 or 3 seed.
No. 8 Northwestern
It’s all on the table. Win the last few games, shock Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship, and in. Or, get there unbeaten, lose in a great fight with the Buckeyes, and it’ll be in the discussion for the No. 4 spot.
Everyone else … win out, and get a whole lot of help.
– Rapid-Fire First Reaction
– This week’s big whiff
– The known unknown
– The Cincinnati situation
