Five reactions and what we learned from the from the second College Football Playoff rankings of 2020.
– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak
– 15 Best Wins So Far
– Ohio State is in the Top 4
– New Year’s Six Situation
– What it all really means
5. Rapid-Fire First Reaction To Latest College Football Playoff Rankings
How is Indiana still just 12? The Hoosier were 12th last week, rocked a then-CFP-ranked Wisconsin in Madison, and the only loss is to Ohio State. Meanwhile, Oklahoma lost to a bad Kansas State team – okay so it was different then with a healthy starting QB – at home, and is 7-2 and stayed at 11.
The College Football Playoff committee really is going with the recency thing. Iowa State lost 31-14 to Louisiana and dropped the date to an Oklahoma State team that has done nothing since. However, the team is playing better, and blowing out West Virginia is better than it looks. On the full resumé, Iowa State doesn’t deserve the 7, but …
I get the anti-Georgia argument – there just aren’t a whole lot of good wins – but the No. 9 Bulldogs’ two losses are to Alabama and Florida, and now they’re better with JT Daniels at quarterback, Iowa State’s two losses are to Louisiana and Oklahoma State.
Northwestern wasn’t punished enough for that loss to Michigan State. The Cats are hanging in there at 14, even though the Spartans got destroyed by Ohio State last week.
The one under-the-radar that really matters … Iowa at 16 up from 19. Now, if it beats Wisconsin this week, a game against Ohio State takes on a bigger significance. If the Buckeyes aren’t playing in the Big Ten Championship, and they beat a 15ish-ranked Iowa, that’s about the same rankings-wise as beating Northwestern in the title game.
Coastal Carolina and BYU swapped spots. The Chanticleers are 13 and Cougars are 18. Now, if CCU goes unbeaten and wins the Sun Belt title, it’s right on the edge of New Year’s Six consideration no matter what Cincinnati does.
– 15 Best Wins So Far
– Ohio State is in the Top 4
– New Year’s Six Situation
– What it all really means
NEXT: The deep, deep, DEEP sleeper now is …
4. The deep, deep, DEEP sleeper now is …
USC moving up from 20 to 15.
NO, I’m not saying a 6-0 Pac-12 Champion USC is getting into the top four – that’s way too much of a stretch – however …
Let’s say Alabama wins the SEC, Ohio State gets into the Big Ten title game and wins, and Notre Dame beats Clemson.
Who’s No. 4?
There’s going to be someone in the College Football Playoff committee room who’ll point out that – if USC really does go unbeaten and win the Pac-12 title – there could be a chance for four unbeaten Power Five champions in the playoff.
Nah, too much has to happen.
USC won’t have a big enough body of work, and it doesn’t help that the Pac-12 North champ won’t be that impressive of an opponent in the championship. However, at the very least, if it gets through the rest of the slate clean, and if it blows out UCLA and wins the Pac-12 Championship in a romp …
Nah. But the Pac-12 would have a beef, and next week’s rankings could be interesting if the Trojans romp all over the Bruins.
– First Reaction
– Ohio State is in the Top 4
– New Year’s Six Situation
– What it all really means
NEXT: No, the Big 12 isn’t getting into the College Football Playoff, but …
3. No, the Big 12 isn’t getting into the College Football Playoff, but …
There’s no dogging how much fun this Iowa State season has been – it really would be amazing for the program if it could come up with the Big 12 Championship – and Oklahoma really is improving as the season is going on.
But there’s a hard ceiling on how close the Big 12 can get to the College Football Playoff top four, even with Iowa State moving up to No. 7 this week.
For Oklahoma or Iowa State to get in, the Big 12 Championship winner would have to win in a total annihilation – as in a 2014 Big Ten championship-like Ohio State 59-0 win over Wisconsin – that makes it look like the CFP needs to take a Big 12 champ.
However, the College Football Playoff has never taken a two-loss team.
For the Big 12 champ to push through the rock-hard two-loss team ceiling, Alabama would have to blowout Florida, Notre Dame would have to roll through Clemson, Ohio State would need to be stunned, and the committee would have to like a Big 12 team over a possible unbeaten Pac-12 champ, a one-loss Texas A&M, a one-loss Big Ten champions Northwestern – if it beats OSU – a possible unbeaten Cincinnati and – don’t laugh too hard, considering the Sun Belt was 3-0 against the Big 12 – an unbeaten Coastal Carolina.
It’s not 100% totally out of the question for the Big 12, but it’s close.
– 15 Best Wins So Far
– New Year’s Six Situation
– What it all really means
NEXT: Ohio State isn’t going anywhere … for now
2. Ohio State isn’t going anywhere … for now
The College Football Playoff committee liked Ohio State last week enough to put it at No. 4 even though the resumé was no big deal, there was only one win over a team that’s going to finish with a winning record – Indiana – and it was last in the Big Ten in pass defense.
This week, it was coming off a 52-12 blowout win over the Michigan State team that beat Northwestern the week before and stayed in the fourth slot after Clemson beat Virginia Tech 45-10.
However, the committee has already said it likes Ohio State, it’ll like it even more as a Big Ten champion – assuming that happens – and either Notre Dame or Clemson will lose the ACC Championship.
As long as there aren’t any blips for the Buckeyes, the only real danger will be if Florida beats Alabama. If that happens, the Gators and Tide will be in, and then it’ll be up to the ACC Championship.
If Alabama beats Florida, then everything is set. It’ll be Alabama, the ACC Championship winner, Ohio State, and a fourth team of some sort. If Florida wins, though, and Clemson beats Notre Dame, it’ll be Gators, Tigers, Tide, and then an argument on the committee between Notre Dame and Ohio State.
A one-loss team with ten wins and no conference title, vs. an unbeaten Power Five champion with six wins.
The guess is that it would be Ohio State, but just to be sure, it would help if the Buckeyes win in an ugly style-point blowout against whatever team it faces next week.
– First Reaction
– 15 Best Wins So Far
– Ohio State is in the Top 4
– What it all really means
NEXT: What this all really means …
1. What this all really means …
There’s lots of arguments, lots of discussion, and a whole lot of hopes being built up for several fan bases, but the top six stayed the same, and the four College Football Playoff participants are likely going to come out of those four teams.
That’s not exactly shocking or any sort of amazing insight, but it’s been that way from the start, nothing changed all teams in the top six won in double-digit blowouts, and now it’s all about the conference championships.
Can there be any sort of hiccup? Can LSU shock Florida, or Arkansas pull off the upset of upsets over Alabama?
What if Ohio State doesn’t get into the Big Ten Championship, or loses whatever game it has left?
What happens if Texas A&M somehow gets tripped up at Tennessee in a few weeks?
Worst of all possible issues, what happens it there’s a major injury to a star, or an outbreak of COVID?
If there’s a problem with a team not being able to play in a conference championship, here’s how this works.
If it happens in the SEC, Alabama and Florida would be declared co-champions. In the ACC, Notre Dame would be declared the winner thanks to the unbeaten record and win over Clemson.
Iowa State would technically be the Big 12 champ because of the head-to-head win over Oklahoma and the better conference winning percentage, and the Pac-12 would go with the team ranked higher in the College Football Playoff rankings.
What does this mean to the College Football Playoff?
It’s the CFP committee’s job to take whatever it has to work with and decide on the four-best teams from there. Conference championship designations probably won’t matter.
Florida has to beat Alabama to get in, and it would be a big deal if Ohio State can’t play another game next week for some reason.
The ACC, though, would be fine – the CFP would go with Notre Dame and Clemson if the championship can’t be played.
But for this week, the top six is the top six. It probably will be next week, too.
– First Reaction
– 15 Best Wins So Far
– Ohio State is in the Top 4
– New Year’s Six Situation
