Five reactions and what we learned from the from the second College Football Playoff rankings of 2020.
– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak
– 15 Best Wins So Far
– Ohio State is in the Top 4
– New Year’s Six Situation
– What it all really means
5. Rapid-Fire First Reaction To Latest College Football Playoff Rankings
The College Football Playoff committee still can’t get Louisiana right. As predicted, the Ragin’ Cajuns received a token ranking of 25 after being left out last week, but there’s still a gigantic gap between them at the bottom, and where they’re supposed to be ahead of Iowa State. The Cyclones are at 9, even though they have two losses, one of them is to Louisiana, and Coastal Carolina (18) is unbeaten and beat Louisiana.
Beating Texas just isn’t that big a deal. It shouldn’t have been enough to move the Cyclones from 13 to 9.
The committee has always had a blind spot to tough losses. Auburn was ranked last week, lost to the-be-all-end-all No. 1 Alabama team, and now it’s out – like it’s Auburn’s fault that it played Bama.
So, if beating Texas on a last second missed field goal was SO good that it earned Iowa State a move up from 13 to 9, then why move Texas from 17 to out of this thing entirely? How much worse is Texas now than it was last week before it lost a nail-biter to the supposed No. 9 team?
And THAT’S the problem with Ohio State being No. 4. You can’t say that you think Ohio State is the fourth-best team in the country – despite doing NOTHING to earn that distinction – and then drop a team like Auburn from 23 to out of this, and Texas from 17 to out, because of a loss to a top team by the committee’s own rankings.
Ohio State absolutely could be one of the four-best teams – and if the committee really believes that, fine. But then apply the same measure to everyone else, and don’t punish teams just because they lost to someone fantastic.
Wisconsin being 16 is an absolute gift. Looking great by beating Illinois and Michigan shouldn’t be enough to earn a spot this good.
The committee is supposed to take injuries into account. It really still thinks Indiana is the 12th-best team in college football without Michael Penix?
The eye test desperately has to be eliminated from the College Football Playoff process. Now.
– 15 Best Wins So Far
– Ohio State is in the Top 4
– New Year’s Six Situation
– What it all really means
NEXT: Technically, the 15 best wins of 2020 are …
4. Technically, the 15 best wins of 2020 are …
Whether we agree with them or not, the rankings are what matter. The committee has the definitive say, and they’re the law of the land we need to go by.
So with that in mind, technically, the 15 best wins of the 2020 college football season are (road and neutral site wins get more credit than home victories) …
15. (14) Northwestern 17, (16) Wisconsin 7
14. (11) Oklahoma 41, (15) Oklahoma State 13
13. (NR) Texas 41, (15) Oklahoma State 34
12. (NR) Michigan State 29, (14) Northwestern 20
11. (4) Ohio State 42, (12) Indiana 35
10. (9) Iowa State 37, (11) Oklahoma 30
9. (NR) Kansas State 38, (11) Oklahoma 35
8. (3) Clemson 42, (10) Miami 17
7. (15) Oklahoma State 24, (9) Iowa State 21
6. (25) Louisiana 31, (9) Iowa State 14
5. (1) Alabama 41, (8) Georgia 24
4. (6) Florida 44, (8) Georgia 28
3. (5) Texas A&M 41, (6) Florida 38
2. (1) Alabama 52, (5) Texas A&M 24
1. (2) Notre Dame 47, (3) Clemson 40
– First Reaction
– Ohio State is in the Top 4
– New Year’s Six Situation
– What it all really means
NEXT: Ohio State is still in the top four …
3. Ohio State is still in the top four
Don’t read anything into this more than it is.
The explanation for why the College Football Playoff committee has Ohio State at No. 4 falls somewhere between I Dunno and Because. This is the only non-Pac-12 Power Five program that’s still undefeated, and it’s Ohio State – we can certainly quibble about resumés, but it’s hard to get into too much of a twist over this.
However, remember, this all can and will change as the rankings move and more of the puzzle pieces come together.
Does this ranking mean that Ohio State is in the top four if another game is canceled and it’s not eligible for the Big Ten Championship? Not really, but again, that’s looking way ahead here before all the conference championships are played.
So to guess from these rankings, here’s the deal. If Ohio State plays its last two games, wins them, gets to the Big Ten Championship and wins it, it’ll be in the College Football Playoff as either the 1, 2 or 3 seed, going to the Rose Bowl no matter what.
If it has to cancel another game and misses out on the Big Ten Championship, it might be fine as long as it plays one other game – like, Wisconsin or Iowa – in the slightly-murky Champions Week game.
If this is it, though, and it’s 4-0 and doesn’t play another game – which doesn’t seem likely – this top four spot is probably a rental.
– First Reaction
– 15 Best Wins So Far
– New Year’s Six Situation
– What it all really means
NEXT: The New Year’s Six situation
2. The New Year’s Six situation
The top four will work itself out – Alabama, Notre Dame, Clemson, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Florida. The four College Football Playoff teams will almost certainly come out of these six.
There’s a great chance three SEC teams will get the call for New Year’s Six games. An ACC team has to go to the Orange Bowl, and if Clemson and Notre Dame are in the CFP, that means Miami would stick close to home to almost certainly play Florida or Texas A&M.
And then this gets tricky.
Cincinnati is slated for the throw-the-little-guy-a-cookie Group of Five New Year’s Six slot, and the Big 12 and Pac-12 champions have to slip in, too.
Assume the CFP will move up some Big Ten team within range – it’s REALLY not going to want two Big 12 teams, Cincinnati, and … BYU.
That’s why the No. 13 BYU ranking matters. It’ll win its season finale against San Diego State, some in the top 12 will lose, and the Cougars will finish around 10.
HOWEVER, if Ohio State somehow gets into the College Football Playoff without winning the Big Ten title, the New Year’s Six will almost certainly be …
Two from Texas A&M, Florida, Clemson, Notre Dame.
Georgia, Miami, Cincinnati (as the Group of Five representative), and the champions from the Pac-12, Big Ten, and Big 12.
No BYU. Maybe.
– First Reaction
– 15 Best Wins So Far
– Ohio State is in the Top 4
– What it all really means
NEXT: What this all really means …
1. What this all really means …
The College Football Playoff committee is trying.
It’s easy to find a whole lot of fault with the rankings, and it’s easy to hammer on the committee for all of its inconsistencies – and there are a LOT of them – but they’re trying to figure out which teams are good even though several of them aren’t playing or haven’t played enough.
In a way, this is why the system was set up as it is. When all else fails, and the metrics and numbers don’t work – how do compare 2-1 Wisconsin to 9-0 Coastal Carolina to 3-0 Washington to 7-2 Oklahoma? – it comes down to expertise and what everyone believes.
In the end, there’s going to be a whole lot of hand-wringing, complaining, and scrutinization – that’s what we do – but it would be nice to know what this group did to get there.
In this, of all years, there has to be more transparency.
Why can’t members of the college football media ask committee members questions challenging all of the rationale for the rankings?
There should be an answer to every ranking spot that only makes the conviction stronger that the committee has this.
Why is Northwestern still 14th after losing to a bad Michigan State? Why isn’t the Sun Belt getting more respect compared to the Big 12? Why is 3-1 Oregon ranked and unbeaten Colorado not?
Why so much Iowa State love? Why isn’t Georgia higher if the committee is going by how teams are playing right now?
Is there anything BYU or Cincinnati could do to have a shot at the top four?
The College Football Playoff committee is trying.
It can do better.
– First Reaction
– 15 Best Wins So Far
– Ohio State is in the Top 4
– New Year’s Six Situation
