Five reactions and what we learned from the first rankings from the College Football Playoff committee.
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– Auburn really did beat Oregon
– Bama needs to beat LSU
– Penn State vs. Ohio State
– What it all really means
5. Rapid-Fire First Reaction To Latest College Football Playoff Rankings
To the ESPN analysts, and to everyone else, remember, these rankings aren’t like the normal ones we’re all still used to. It’s not as easy as one-team-loses-drops-one-team-wins-and-moves-up. These rankings get thrown away and the committee starts over next week.
As always, remember, go 12-1 and win your Power Five championship, and you’ll at least get really, really close to the pin. It all sort of works out, but this year could be very, very different. It’s extremely possible that two Power Five conference champs are left out. HOWEVER …
Don’t forget about the New Year’s Six games. If these first rankings hold, then Florida (10) will almost certainly get a NY6 game by winning out – it has a relatively easy path – and if you’re Wisconsin (13), you got a nice break considering there’s a loss to Illinois on the resumé. The Badgers have to dream the both Ohio State and Penn State get in – more on that in a moment – putting the Rose Bowl in play. Also, lurking at 15, Notre Dame would almost certainly creep on up into NY6 at-large range – Cotton Bowl – if it goes 10-2.
Baylor being at 12 is a big deal. If Oklahoma destroys the Bears in Waco, that No. 9 seed gets a big, giant boost. The Sooners need that, and they need No. 23 Oklahoma State to keep winning. Also, that loss to Kansas State (15) is technically better than No. 8 Utah’s loss to USC, and it soon could be better than Oregon’s loss to current-11 Auburn. Don’t quite count out OU yet.
However …
Technically, for right now, No. 16 Kansas State should be ranked ahead of No. 9 Oklahoma. Oklahoma hasn’t beaten a CFP-ranked team, and the win over Texas might just be the lone win – so far – out of the seven against a team that will go bowling. Kansas State’s losses were to No. 23 Oklahoma State and No. 12 Baylor – Oklahoma has yet to play either one. So, for the moment, yeah … in theory, the Cats should be higher.
Why, exactly, is Oklahoma State 23rd? The 26-13 win over Oklahoma State? Iowa State isn’t ranked, neither is TCU. Texas and Texas Tech aren’t ranked, and the Cowboys lost to both of them, along with their loss to Baylor.
Minnesota got DOGGED. It doesn’t really matter – beat Penn State, and everything changes in a big hurry – but No. 17, compared to Baylor at 12? It’s not like the Bears have done anything wonderful other than beating an overrated No. 24 Oklahoma State.
Cincinnati, it’s all there for the taking. Basically, the American Athletic Conference winner takes the Group of Five’s New Year’s Six spot unless it has two losses. Boise State might be at 22, but it has a whole lot of traffic to get through if Cincinnati (20), Memphis (21), Navy (24) or SMU (25) takes the AAC at 12-1.
The committee got the midsection right. It didn’t punish Wisconsin (13) for the loss to Ohio State, and while the Illinois loss stunk, it was, apparently, just close enough – as inexcusable as it was – to still get the nod against of Michigan (14), and with both of them ahead of Notre Dame (15).
The committee got a whole lot right, but …
– Auburn really did beat Oregon
– Bama needs to beat LSU
– Penn State vs. Ohio State
– What it all really means
NEXT: The big whiff was …
4. Auburn 27, Oregon 21
Oregon has improved, it has been able to come up with a whole slew of impressive wins, and it looked fantastic against USC last week.
And, it lost to Auburn.
The Tigers weren’t impressive in the wins over Texas A&M and Ole Miss, but Oregon managed to get by Washington on the road while rising up defensively through an interesting midsection of the schedule, and …
It lost to Auburn.
That was the lone loss so far this year for the Ducks, but it shouldn’t matter that it came on a last-gasp touchdown pass.
Auburn won, Oregon lost.
Of course, Auburn lost two games, but 23-20 at No. 2 LSU, and 24-13 at No. 10 Florida are as acceptable as it gets. Oregon hasn’t had to deal with anything remotely as tough as that.
Oregon’s best win? It doesn’t have won over a CFP-ranked team.
Auburn beat a CFP-ranked team. The No. 7 Oregon Ducks.
– Rapid-Fire First Reactions
– Bama needs to beat LSU
– Penn State vs. Ohio State
– What it all really means
NEXT: The Alabama thing …
3. Is Alabama really out if it loses to LSU?
Paul Finebaum and Kirk Herbstreit are among those going hard on the idea that Alabama is out of the College Football Playoff race if it loses to LSU, even in a close game.
That’s a wee bit too much, but the Tide could be in big, big trouble if it loses this week.
Alabama’s best win so far was at Texas A&M – the schedule is every bit as soft so far as Clemson’s. However, if the Tide lose to LSU in a good battle – especially if Tua Tagovailoa isn’t 100% – and then goes on to rip through the rest of its schedule – including beating Auburn at Auburn – then it still has a great shot at getting in.
The 2017 team didn’t exactly beat a who’s who of killers, and its loss was to an Auburn team that wasn’t nearly as strong as 2019 LSU. The Tide slipped in despite not winning its own division, and it went on to win the national title.
Of course, the landscape is far different this time around.
The narrative really is there now. The committee loved Bama enough to put it at No. 3 to start – because it’s Alabama – but considering how many great teams there are this season, it had better beat LSU on Saturday, mainly because …
– Rapid-Fire First Reactions
– Auburn really did beat Oregon
– Penn State vs. Ohio State
– What it all really means
NEXT: Could Penn State vs. Ohio State be bigger than LSU vs. Alabama?
2. Could Penn State vs. Ohio State be bigger than LSU vs. Alabama?
Here’s what it means right now that Penn State is fourth and Alabama is third. If Bama might be hosed if it loses to LSU and Penn State beats unbeaten and No. 17-ranked Minnesota on the road.
No matter what – again, when it comes to this, no, it’s not as simple as team wins and moves up, and other team loses and moves down – but if Penn State wins, it really might will move up into the No. 3 spot ahead of the Bama-LSU loser.
At the moment, Penn State has wins over Iowa (18) and Michigan (14). If adds that Minnesota win to the equation, and considering how Indiana – that’s on November 16 – helps the cause in the strength-of-schedule aspect of this, then yeah, the Nov. 23 game at Ohio State really might be mostly about how close the loser makes it.
The committee obviously loves Ohio State – it’s not going to bump the Buckeyes down too much, even at home, if they finish 11-1 with wins over Cincinnati (20), Wisconsin (13), and Michigan on the road at the end of the rainbow. And if it’s Penn State losing in a tight battle on the road to the CFP No. 1 team?
Alabama had better beat LSU this week.
– Rapid-Fire First Reactions
– Auburn really did beat Oregon
– Bama needs to beat LSU
– What it all really means
NEXT: What this all really means …
1. What this all really means …
Yeah, LSU has better big wins than Ohio State has, but whatever – there’s no real beef that the Buckeyes are 1 and LSU 2. Each team controls its own destiny.
Alabama (3) controls its own path, and so does Penn State (4), Clemson (5) and Georgia (6). Everyone else needs a whole lot of help and a whole lot of chaos among the top six to make this happen.
Oregon (7), Utah (8) and Oklahoma (9) might be ranked higher, but 8-0 Baylor (12) is in a far better spot than those three. The Bears are in if they win out – NO CHANCE the CFP will leave out a 13-0 Power Five champ – and Minnesota (17) is the only other team that is absolutely in if it wins out.
That means eight teams have everything there for the taking, three teams are in the fight by winning out, and then there’s everyone else.
With all that said, you ready for the doomsday scenario for a whole slew of college football fans?
Clemson loses somewhere and somehow as something totally insane happens, Penn State loses in a thriller at Ohio State, LSU loses in a thriller at Alabama, the Nittany Lions and Tigers each go 11-1, the Tide and Buckeyes go 13-0, and …
All four are in the College Football Playoff on a four-best-team theory.
– Rapid-Fire First Reactions
– Auburn really did beat Oregon
– Bama needs to beat LSU
– Penn State vs. Ohio State
