Five reactions and what we learned from the third rankings from the College Football Playoff committee. Also, the 25 best wins so far this season.
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– If Alabama wins out …
– The known unknown is …
– What’s a big win? Top 25 wins
– What it all really means
5. Rapid-Fire First Reaction To Latest College Football Playoff Rankings
Nothing much actually changed, and that in and of itself is important. The College Football Playoff committee basically punted on a slew of big decisions and calls for now, but that matters.
Oklahoma didn’t get a big bump. Minnesota rocketed up to 8 last week after handing Penn State its only loss so far this year. Oklahoma came up with a special comeback and performance to get by Baylor, and it only moved up one spot. That means …
There appears to be a hard ceiling on how high the Sooners can get. Beating CFP No. 21 Oklahoma State would be nice, and getting by No. 14 Baylor would be solid again if that happens in the Big 12 Championship, but there’s not much room to move up the rankings, because …
Even at 12-1 with a Big 12 Championship – this applies to Baylor, too – there’s way too much traffic. It would take a slew of upsets along the way – like Auburn beating Alabama, a two-loss Pac-12 champion, and some other twists and turns – to get in.
There’s an outside shot that Notre Dame can get within shouting distance of the New Year’s Six. At 16, the Irish have to count on No. 15 Auburn to lose to Alabama; hope for No. 14 Baylor to drop another game; expect No. 13 Michigan to lose to Ohio State; expect No. 10 Minnesota or No. 12 Wisconsin to lose when the they play each other – and the winner to lose the Big Ten Championship; get a loss against Ohio State out of No. 8 Penn State; and take advantage of Utah and/or Oregon losing again. The Irish might be able to move up well into the top eight and have an honest shot at one of the big bowls.
Clemson is the only ACC team in the top 25. There are three American Athletic Conference teams ranked – it’s a rough run for the ACC. Virginia Tech should be in the top 25 somewhere, and it likely will be in the near future, but that’s it for now. There’s no one on Clemson’s schedule currently in the College Football Playoff rankings.
– If Alabama wins out …
– The known unknown is …
– What’s a big win? Top 25 wins
– What it all really means
NEXT: If Alabama wins out …
4. If Alabama wins out …
The College Football Playoff committee didn’t seem to put too much stock in the Tua Tagovailoa injury – for now.
It this just a holding place at No. 5 for the Crimson Tide? At the moment, the committee believes Bama is still deserving of being ranked ahead of No. 6 Oregon. So what happens if the Tide beat Auburn?
Will Oregon winning a Pac-12 championship with a win over Utah – if that actually happens – be enough to jump over Alabama?
What happens if the Tide obliterate Auburn on the road? What does the score have to be? Do they have to win by ten? 24? 59-0? What’s the number that will make the committee happy?
It would help Bama’s cause if LSU wins out, takes the SEC Championship, and is impressive doing it. If that one loss is to the unquestioned No. 1, that should be enough to overcome the lack of big wins on the Tide resumé …
Maybe.
Would the committee care about the idea of a rematch between the Tigers and Tide? Maybe, but that’s not hot the thing works. In theory, the committee ranks teams, and then the chips fall as they may.
It would make the committee’s life a whole lot easier if Auburn wins the Iron Bowl. Especially because ..
– Rapid Fire Reactions
– The known unknown is …
– What’s a big win? Top 25 wins
– What it all really means
NEXT: The known unknown is …
3. The known unknown is …
What does the committee really think about the Pac-12?
It’s the part of the puzzle we’re missing.
We know that the SEC and Big Ten will almost certainly get a team in, and we know that the ACC will get Clemson in as long as it wins out. We also know that the Big 12 will need a whole lot of luck to get a team in.
When it comes to the Pac-12, we know that the committee has Oregon at 6 and Utah at 7.
And that’s about it. It’s as if the committee doesn’t quite want to commit to the league’s two top teams quite yet.
It helps to have USC in at 23, but that’s a wee bit shaky. It’s not like the league is being given the credit of the SEC or Big Ten up top, and at the end of the season, the big wins will be lacking off of the resume for both of them.
But what happens if Utah or Oregon takes the Pac-12 title going 12-1? Will the win over the other be enough to move past Alabama and into the top four? Will the committee value a Power Five conference championship at 12-1 over a powerhouse 11-1 team whose one loss came to the likely No. 1 team, LSU?
Oregon goes to Arizona State this week and closes up with Oregon State. Utah goes to Arizona, and finishes up against Colorado.
It would be a huge help for the overall profile for both of them to win out. It’s up to these two to put the pressure on the committee to take a harder, longer look.
– Rapid Fire Reactions
– If Alabama wins out …
– What’s a big win? Top 25 wins
– What it all really means
NEXT: What’s a “big” win …
2. Really, what’s a “big” win?
“But they didn’t beat anyone?”
That’s the common argument or complaint around the College Football Playoff rankings world. Where’s the important, splashy win? Where’s the signature moment to get everyone all excited?
Okay, let’s do this.
The College Football Playoff rankings are the ones of record, so let’s go by their own beliefs.
What are – technically – the best wins in college football this year according to the latest rankings? Here you go.
1. (NR) South Carolina over (4) Georgia 20-17
2. (1) LSU over (5) Alabama 46-41
3. (15) Auburn over (6) Oregon 27-21
4. (23) USC over (7) Utah 30-23
5. (10) Minnesota over (8) Penn State 31-26
6. (NR) Kansas State over (9) Oklahoma
7. (17) Iowa over (10) Minnesota
8. (4) Georgia over (11) Florida 24-17
(Ranked higher than 9 because of neutral site win as opposed to LSU’s win at home)
9. (1) LSU over (11) Florida 42-28
T10. (2) Ohio State over (12) Wisconsin 38-7
T10. (NR) Illinois over (12) Wisconsin 24-23
T12. (8) Penn State over (13) Michigan 28-21
T12. (12) Wisconsin over (13) Michigan 35-14
14. (9) Oklahoma over (14) Baylor
15. (4) Georgia over (15) Auburn 21-14
(Ranked higher than next two because win was at Auburn)
T16. (1) LSU over (15) Auburn 23-20
T16. (11) Florida over (15) Auburn 24-13
T18. (4) Georgia over (16) Notre Dame 23-17
T18. (13) Michigan over (16) Notre Dame 45-14
20. (8) Penn State over (17) Iowa 17-12
(Ranked higher than the other two because the win was at Iowa)
T21. (13) Michigan over (17) Iowa 10-3
T21. (12) Wisconsin over (17) Iowa 24-22
23. (NR) Temple over (18) Memphis 30-28
24. (2) Ohio State over (19) Cincinnati 42-0
25. (NR) BYU over (20) Boise State 28-25
What does it all mean? No. 4 Georgia has three of the top 17 wins of the year, but the loss to South Carolina is the worst defeat so far by any of the top teams.
No. 1 LSU has three of the 16 best wins. No. 2 Ohio State has two of the top 25, as does No. 8 Penn State, No. 12 Wisconsin and No. 13 Michigan.
Who’s missing? No. 3 Clemson, No. 5 Alabama, No. 6 Oregon and No. 7 Utah can fall into the “haven’t really beaten anyone” category. They’re the only ones in the top 15 missing a truly great win so far.
– Rapid Fire Reactions
– If Alabama wins out …
– The known unknown is …
– What it all really means
NEXT: What this all really means …
1. What this all really means …
Nothing much actually changed after everything that happened last weekend.
Georgia beat Auburn at Auburn, and it stayed at 4. If it wins out, it’s going to the College Football Playoff.
Tua Tagovailoa was knocked out for the year. And Alabama stayed at No. 5
Penn State was able to slip by Indiana, and it only moved up one spot. If it wins out, it’s going to the College Football Playoff.
Minnesota lost to Iowa, and it only moved down two spots. It if wins out, it’s going to the College Football Playoff.
Oklahoma came up with the huge road win over Baylor. It only moved up one spot, if it wins out, it’s probably going to the Sugar Bowl.
Baylor only dropped one spot after losing. If it wins out, it’s probably going to the Sugar Bowl.
Michigan blew out Michigan State and Notre Dame rocked Navy. It didn’t matter. Michigan only moved up two spots, and Notre Dame stayed at 16.
This week, though, there’s guaranteed to be some movement with (2) Ohio State playing (8) Penn State.
But will that be it? Probably not. The stage is being set for the massive Thanksgiving weekend.
(2) Ohio State at (13) Michigan
(5) Alabama at (15) Auburn
(9) Oklahoma at (21) Oklahoma State
(12) Wisconsin at (10) Minnesota
(19) Cincinnati at (18) Memphis
– Rapid Fire Reactions
– If Alabama wins out …
– The known unknown is …
– What’s a big win? Top 25 wins
