After three more weeks of games, we’ll get our first official look at where teams stand in the College Football Playoff race. The selection committee will unveil its first Top 25 of the year on Tuesday, Nov. 4, setting the scene for the second year of the 12-team field.
Things will look a bit different in this year’s playoff. While the field holds at 12 for now, the format has been tweaked: the top five conference champions will still receive automatic bids to the field, opening the door for at least one Group of 5 program, but the top four champions will no longer receive byes into the second round. Instead, those top four seeds will go to the highest ranked teams, with seedings continuing according to the committee’s rankings.
We may not have an official Top 25 just yet, but Sports Illustrated’s Pat Forde and Bryan Fischer have been updating their rankings each week, giving a glimpse at what a current 12-team field could look like, and which teams are on the outside looking in midway through October.
SI’s College Football Playoff rankings through Week 7
Saturday was another explosive day of college football, with Indiana scoring a program-defining win at Oregon, unranked Texas taking down Oklahoma, Alabama surviving Missouri and USC dominating Michigan.
Forde laid out the state of play in Tuesday’s Forde-Yard Dash, while Fischer updated his rankings on Monday, pairing forward-looking projections along with a current Top 25, which is being used below for an apples-to-apples comparison. Here’s where things stand, with projected conference champions in bold:
While there is some variance among the rankings, the big difference is Forde’s pick of BYU and Georgia Tech in one of the final two at-large spots, while Fischer went with Notre Dame.
Those programs are among the current crop of bubble teams through the first half of the season. If the season ended today, here's how I’d rank those teams in contention for those last few CFP spots, based on their résumés and how they look through seven weeks of the season.
Power ranking College Football Playoff bubble teams after Week 7
1. USC Trojans (5–1, 3–1 Big Ten)
Outside of Caleb Williams’s Heisman campaign, last Saturday’s dominant win over Michigan might have been the brightest moment of Lincoln Riley’s up-and-down tenure at USC. The offensive guru absolutely diced up a vaunted Michigan defense through the air and on the ground. The Trojans currently have the top offense in the country per SP+, and Riley’s ability to put points on the board is no surprise. The defense, however, was a revelation, holding the Wolverines to a paltry 316 total yards. Time will tell just how good this win is (and the same goes for the Sooners below), while a two-point loss at a ranked Illinois team is far from a death knell. USC can keep things rolling at Notre Dame in South Bend on Saturday, a game that could effectively end the rival Fighting Irish’s playoff hopes and vault USC directly into the projected field.
2. Oklahoma Sooners (5–1, 1–1 SEC)
Will the John Mateer that plays in the second half of the season more resemble the one who led Oklahoma to its double-digit win over Michigan, or the post-surgery version that struggled mightily against Texas? Given the expedited timeline that Mateer was on to return and play in Red River, it is reasonable to assume that he was far from 100%, though he downplayed any pain he may have played through against an aggressive Longhorns defense. If this becomes a lingering issue, however, the Sooners’ schedule won’t be very forgiving. After a date with South Carolina on Saturday, OU finishes the year with five consecutive games against teams currently in the AP Top 25. Such is life in the SEC. If the Sooners can go 10–2 against this schedule, along with a solid nonconference win vs. Michigan, they’ll absolutely earn a playoff berth.
3. BYU Cougars (6–0, 3–0 Big 12)
BYU’s schedule hasn’t presented a serious challenge yet, and the Cougars survived a pair of tight conference road trips to Colorado (24–21) and Arizona (33–27), but halfway through the season, Kalani Sitake's program is in good position to make a run to the conference title game. The heat turns up in the second half of the season, with a rivalry game against Utah on Saturday and a trip to Big 12 favorite Texas Tech on Nov. 8.
4. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6–0, 3–0 ACC)
Ultimately, college football comes down to winning football games, and Georgia Tech has done that each time out in 2025. Now, wins over Colorado and Clemson have aged like milk, and the Yellow Jackets were deeply fortunate to survive a road game against Wake Forest. The ACC isn’t exactly the SEC or Big Ten, and Georgia Tech has been graced with a remarkably workable path through the league, but wins are wins. Saturday’s game at Duke is likely the most difficult ACC test left. The late-season game against Georgia provides a huge opportunity, as does a potential conference title game against Miami. Without one of those seismic wins, and likely a one-loss record to go with it, their bubble may pop. It will be fascinating to see how the committee treats Brent Key's team if they finish, say, 11–2 with a win over Georgia but a loss elsewhere and no ACC title.
Forde: Haynes King’s Relentless Rise Has Georgia Tech Dreaming of the College Football Playoff
5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4–2)
Notre Dame has graduated from its early-season status as “the best 0–1/0–2/1–2 team in the country” to a program that is once again in the heat of the CFP race. Marcus Freeman is likely still a bit haunted by the season-opening losses to Miami and Texas A&M, but losing those combined games by a total of four points is about as “good” as losses get for a résumé, with the Hurricanes and Aggies currently in the mix for playoff byes. The four wins since haven’t come against juggernauts, but Notre Dame’s 56–13 beatdown of Arkansas looks a bit better with how the Hogs have hung with SEC playoff hopefuls Ole Miss and Tennessee. The Irish don’t have any wiggle room with a weak schedule to end the year and no conference championship opportunity, making Saturday’s USC game a virtual must-win. Even if they go 10–2, style points will matter immensely because Notre Dame has so little opportunity to pick up a big win. Even so, this is starting to look like one of the sport's most dangerous teams.
6. Tennessee Volunteers (5–1, 2–1 SEC)
What does it say about Tennessee that its most impressive performance may have come in a loss? The 44–41 overtime loss to Georgia was one of the sport's early games of the year, and hasn't been held against the Vols much in early-season rankings. Voters will need to see some more impressive outings in SEC play, however, as Tennessee only squeaked by Mississippi State and Arkansas—two improved programs but those expected to be near the bottom of the SEC at season's end. Win on the road at Alabama this weekend, and the Vols will have a great path to a playoff berth with a relatively manageable schedule down the stretch by SEC standards.
7. Utah Utes (5–1, 2–1 Big 12)
Texas Tech's blowout win over Utah helps put the Red Raiders in a tier of their own as the heavy favorites to win the Big 12, but the league remains very deep, and there is probably no team that opponents would less rather see than the Utes. Once again, Kyle Whittingham fields one of the nation's top defenses (ranked sixth per SP+ after Week 7), along with a frisky offense led by true dual-threat quarterback Devon Dampier. He had an ugly game vs. Texas Tech, but has lived up to the hype otherwise, proving he can win games with his arm (237 passing yards, four touchdowns vs. West Virginia) and his legs (120 rushing yards, three touchdowns vs. Arizona State). Saturday’s rivalry game at BYU will be make-or-break for the Utes’ playoff chances.
8. LSU Tigers (5–1, 2–1 SEC)
The good: LSU is 5–1 with a tight loss to another likely playoff team, Ole Miss. The defense may be one of college football’s very best, ranked No. 4 by ESPN's SP+ and allowing less than 12 points per game. The offense, however, has been a real disappointment, and hasn't scored more than 23 points against an FBS opponent. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, a preseason Heisman hopeful, has played through nagging injuries, which may account for his pretty pedestrian numbers. If he gets into gear in the second half, LSU has plenty of opportunities to prove itself, starting on Saturday at Vanderbilt. From there, the Tigers take on three more potential playoff programs: Texas A&M, Alabama and Oklahoma.
Power ranking Group of 5 CFP candidates after Week 7
1. South Florida Bulls (5–1, 2–0 American)
USF really stuck its neck out early this season, and aggressive scheduling has paid off. Early wins over Boise State and Florida put the Bulls on the map, and few hold a rough loss to Miami against the program, given how strong the ACC favorites have been against all competition. USF handed another American contender, North Texas, its first loss of the season in a 63–36 barnburner last week. Do-it-all quarterback Byrum Brown (1,803 all-purpose yards, 18 total touchdowns) should get some votes down the Heisman ballot. South Florida is one of the most fun teams in the country and in the heat of one of the most fun conference races. Upcoming games with Memphis and Navy will be must-watch.
2. Memphis Tigers (6–0, 2–0 American)
It is highly unlikely that the American Conference will contend for multiple bids in the 12-team field, adding even more drama to the league's race, which currently features five teams at either 6–0 or 5–1. Memphis and South Florida are each in the AP and Coaches poll top 25s, and while South Florida has the flashier résumé, the Tigers are favored by the advanced numbers by a fair bit. The Oct. 25 game between Memphis and USF may be the Group of 5 game of the year, and Memphis will also face 5–1 Tulane and fellow American undefeated Navy in November.
3. UNLV Rebels (6–0, 2–0 Mountain West)
Dan Mullen avoided disaster in his coaching debut with UNLV, surviving a strong upset bid by FCS squad Idaho State, 38–31. The team has walked a high wire in the weeks since, with tight wins over UCLA, Miami (Ohio) and Air Force. The Bruins win came before they fired Deshaun Foster and caught fire under interim coach Tim Skipper, but it looks better now than it did on Sept. 7 all the same. The remaining schedule is very favorable, with this weekend's game against Boise State and a November clash with upstart Hawai'i representing the only games left against teams that currently have winning records. The Rebels will likely need some help from mayhem at the top of the American and need to dominate a weaker Mountain West down the stretch, but at 6–0 they're firmly in the mix.
4. Navy Midshipmen (6–0, 4–0 American)
Undefeated Navy has been winning games by the skin of its teeth, with three consecutive one-score victories against Rice, Air Force and Temple—not the most formidable trio. Quarterback Blake Horvath does it all for Navy, which is throwing the ball at almost unheard of levels for a service academy, accounting for 980 yards through the air and 640 on the ground. The Midshipmen certainly have the chance to earn their way in with a brutal November schedule that features fellow American contenders North Texas, Memphis and USF, along with rivalry games against Notre Dame and, in mid-December, the Army-Navy Game.
More College Football on Sports Illustrated
Listen to SI’s new college sports podcast, Others Receiving Votes, below or on Apple and Spotify. Watch the show on SI’s YouTube channel.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as College Football Playoff Race: Power Ranking Teams on the Bubble Entering Week 8.
