It’s a long offseason, so Week 1 is always rife with excitement. This year’s five-day set of festivities felt like a heightened version of the normal college football delirium. There were three top-10 matchups plus a slew of rebuilding projects against big-name opponents on the slate.
With the arrival of this smorgasbord of football also comes a significant shift in how we view teams, conferences and even players now that we have actual data points to reference. All the chatter about Alabama having one of the best rosters suddenly gets thrown out the window when you consider the Tide are just 1–5 on the road under Kalen DeBoer. Meanwhile at LSU and Miami, the investment in those rosters is tangible after notching massive victories.
Factoring in all of the results of Week 1, forecasting the rest of the season out and then putting our selection committee hats on, here’s the latest updated College Football Playoff projection and which matchups we could see this December.
College Football Playoff projected rankings after Week 1
- LSU
- Ohio State
- Penn State
- Georgia
- Clemson
- Texas
- Arizona State
- Miami
- Utah
- Oregon
- Notre Dame
- Tulane
First Round
- No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Clemson
- No. 11 Notre Dame at No. 6 Texas
- No. 10 Oregon at No. 7 Arizona State
- No. 9 Utah at No. 8 Miami
Quarterfinals
- Orange Bowl: No. 4 Georgia vs. winner of No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Clemson
- Cotton Bowl: No. 3 Penn State vs. winner of No. 11 Notre Dame at No. 6 Texas
- Rose Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State vs. winner of No. 10 Oregon at No. 7 Arizona State
- Sugar Bowl: No. 1 LSU vs. winner of No. 9 Utah at No. 8 Miami
No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Clemson
Boise State going on the road to USF and getting bludgeoned 34–7 significantly alters the race to nab the Group of 5 bid even if it doesn’t completely rule the Broncos out after just one game. (Remember: They still have an opportunity to impress at Notre Dame and need to be one of just five teams to win their conference.) Still, it’s hard to argue with the impressive week the American had between what the Bulls did, how UTSA and East Carolina pushed Power 4 competition into the fourth quarter and how even the bottom of the league managed surprise victories, such as with Rice and Temple. Tulane deserves to still be labeled the favorite to win the conference and secured the first of what could be two Power 4 victories this year by topping Northwestern 23–3. Jake Retzlaff seems to have picked up the offense in a hurry as the Green Wave’s new quarterback and will have the benefit of being able to rely on a defense that seems just as fast and physical as any that coach Jon Sumrall has had.
As for Clemson, the Tigers will be disappointed with their effort in a winnable game at home against LSU that they let slip through their fingers. That doesn’t alter their ultimate ceiling as the favorite to win the ACC, however. The schedule sets up a manageable road to regroup and start showing the country why this veteran group is capable of still competing for the national title despite starting the season 0–1. It doesn’t hurt either that their conference’s big showing in Week 1 should give Dabo Swinney’s team far more opportunities to play ranked teams than first assumed.
No. 11 Notre Dame at No. 6 Texas
The highly anticipated start for Arch Manning turned out to be a dud at the Horseshoe. It also spoke to the Longhorns’ overall talent level that they still had the opportunity to beat the reigning champions in the final minutes even with such subpar quarterback play. Texas has the best schedule of any of the SEC contenders this season even if that road trip to Georgia looks a bit tougher come Week 2 than in the preseason.
Meanwhile, the Irish have to be pleased by the poise their new signal-caller showed on the road as CJ Carr looked more than ready for the moment even if he came up short against Miami. Something says that as long as OC Mike Denbrock starts feeding Jeremiyah Love more often, Marcus Freeman’s team will be just fine moving forward.
No. 10 Oregon at No. 7 Arizona State
Dante Moore threw for three touchdowns in his debut with the Ducks, while Sam Leavitt accounted for four scores with the Sun Devils as both CFP contenders performed as effectively as expected in trouncing FCS opposition. If anything, this week may have underscored just how difficult ASU’s path to get back to the playoff is with TCU, Utah, Texas Tech and Iowa State all looking impressive.
No. 9 Utah at No. 8 Miami
Many probably tuned in late at night to see what Nico Iamaleava was going to do in his first start with UCLA but went to bed even more impressed with how good Devon Dampier was in leading the Utes’ offense at the Rose Bowl (21 of 25, 206 yards, three total TDs). Combined with how the defense looked, Kyle Whittingham once again has a salty team on his hands and could be firmly labeled as one of the two to three true favorites in the Big 12 with Arizona State, Texas Tech and Kansas State all coming to Rice-Eccles Stadium in 2025.
For the Hurricanes, they notched one of the biggest wins in the program’s recent memory on a night where nostalgia was running heavy down in South Florida against Notre Dame. Carson Beck still can improve, but the weapons he has at his disposal and the fact that the defense was so physical bodes well. On top of contending in the ACC, Miami will also have the benefit of putting together quite the resume with Florida and Florida State potentially both in the top 15 by the time they meet.
Orange Bowl: No. 4 Georgia
It was only a game against an overmatched Marshall side, but the Bulldogs did their usual thing in dominating a game they should win comfortably. Gunner Stockton looked sharp in using both his legs and his arm while the new receiving corps seems like a vast improvement on last year’s group given the way they actually caught and held onto the ball. With a schedule that features all their most difficult games at home, they’re a threat to make it to the SEC title game and punch their ticket to the playoff.
Cotton Bowl: No. 3 Penn State
There’s not going to be a ton to take away from what amounts to a preseason slate of nonconference games for the Nittany Lions, but they did what needed to be done in rolling over Nevada on Saturday. James Franklin probably doesn’t mind that right now and can use the fact that Ohio State became the new Big Ten favorite as a motivating factor with those looming games against the Buckeyes and Oregon on tap.
Rose Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State
Julian Sayin, DC Matt Patricia and a rebuilt offensive line all answered some major questions about them in that mega matchup against Texas. While going on the road could prove tricky in the Big Ten, this certainly looks like a group that can challenge to make it back-to-back titles even though they lost so much talent from a year ago.
Sugar Bowl: No. 1 LSU Tigers
Brian Kelly’s team warmed up in Clemson wearing shirts saying 1–0 and it appears the emphasis on a fast start to the season paid off in leaving the “other” Death Valley with a win. If they keep playing up to their potential, LSU should have a resume that will be hard to top with top-20 teams Florida, Ole Miss and South Carolina on deck once SEC play begins.
Top 25 projected rankings after Week 1
While predicting how the College Football Playoff will wind up is an exercise in projecting out wins and losses throughout the season, my own Top 25 is much more of a week-to-week task focused on the here and now. How did teams play? Who did they beat? How does the talent on hand live up to their billing—or not?
1. Ohio State (1–0)
Last week: Beat Texas, 14–7
There will probably still be a time later this season where Buckeyes fans get upset at Matt Patricia but the new Ohio State defensive coordinator answered a ton of doubts about his hire by corralling Arch Manning and making Steve Sarkisian look toothless as a play-caller. The champs return to the spot where they finished last season.
2. Penn State (1–0)
Last week: Beat Nevada, 46–11
Few probably expected Chubba Purdy of all people to be the leading rusher in the Nittany Lions opener against Nevada but this sure looked like a team going through the motions much of the afternoon. The one notable aspect of their win might have been that Kyron Hudson and Trebor Pena looked at ease as the new options at receiver and the PSU defense seemed to respond well to what new DC Jim Knowles was telling them.
3. LSU (1–0)
Last week: Beat Clemson, 17–10
Game ball goes to the Tigers offensive line coach Brad Davis and defensive coordinator Blake Baker because LSU more than held up on the road in a tough environment because of how surprisingly stout they were up front and how harassing they were on the other side of the ball. Brian Kelly can’t let the momentum from this kind of win slip but it does give them a slight reprieve against that difficult SEC slate the rest of the year in the CFP race.
4. Miami (1–0)
Last week: Beat Notre Dame, 27–24
It was funny to hear how Miami staffers kept trying to keep freshman wide receiver Malachi Toney a secret before this game because the word is certainly out now that they have a dynamic weapon to go alongside CJ Daniels and Keelan Marion. The running game still needs to take another step but hard to check off more boxes in a such a big test than the Canes did against the Irish.
5. Georgia (1–0)
Last week: Beat Marshall, 45–7
We won’t truly know if Gunner Stockton is a quarterback worth building around until SEC play opens with Tennessee and Alabama, but it’s true that it might not matter either given the overall talent level still there in Athens, Ga.
6. Clemson (0–1)
Last week: Lost to LSU, 17–10
Perhaps the biggest disappointment in that effort against LSU was that some of the leaders you would typically count on to step up and lead you in close games didn’t. Cade Klubnik felt like he took far more than the two sacks he was officially brought down with and didn’t help himself with some of his decisions. Worse, the offensive line and running game don’t appear to be tangibly improved from last season even if the defense did look much more prepared under Tom Allen in this contest.
7. Texas (0–1)
Last week: Lost to Ohio State, 14–7
The biggest obstacle for the Longhorns moving forward is not their quarterback but their head coach’s ability to find a winning play in the red zone. This team is fine from a talent standpoint and remains a threat to win it all, but they have to figure things out in the most important area on the field.
8. Oregon (1–0)
Last week: Beat Montana State, 59–13
It was a bit of an empty your bench type of game for the Ducks but it might be worth rethinking the receiving corps being some massive flaw for this group. Kenyon Sadiq remains a matchup nightmare and you expect some week-over-week progression from guys like Dakorien Moore, too.
9. Utah (1–0)
Last week: Beat UCLA, 43–10
Kyle Whittingham didn't decide to return for another season just because that’s all he’s ever known; he did so because he knows just how good a team that he has. The offense clicked as expected but don’t overlook the defense with the Utes either.
10. Notre Dame (0–1)
Last week: Lost to Miami, 27–24
What was it on film that led the Irish to believe that throwing a bunch of screens would be a better game plan than handing the ball off Jeremiyah Love? Notre Dame should be fine the rest of this season but it’s going to be a long 13 days of reviewing the film before that Texas A&M game rolls around.
11. Florida State (1–0)
Last week: Beat Alabama, 31–17
Maybe it’s an odd/even year thing with the Seminoles but they pulled off by far the biggest shock of Week 1 in thumping the Tide. What was more than impressive in backing up Tommy Castellanos’s big offseason talk was the way Florida State was so superior in terms of physicality—something that bodes well moving forward.
12. Auburn (1–0)
Last week: Beat Baylor, 38–24
We’ve been wondering how long it would take for Hugh Freeze to finally find a quarterback and it seems until this year is the answer based on what we saw from Jackson Arnold. While he needs to be a little better in the passing game to find Cam Coleman and Eric Singleton more, the QB’s legs sure look like a difference-maker when this group gets into SEC play.
13. Arizona State (1–0)
Last week: Beat Northern Arizona, 38–19
Not going to be many takeaways from beating up an FCS side but you do wonder if Kenny Dillingham is trying to play things close to the vest with only seven combined carries for tailbacks Kanye Udoh and Raleek Brown in the opener.
14. Ole Miss (1–0)
Last week: Beat Georgia State, 63–7
Austin Simmons’s 341 yards and three touchdowns certainly outweighs the two interceptions he threw, and it was impressive to see the kind of balance that the Rebels had in rushing for 295 yards and winding up with 400 through the air against the Panthers.
15. Iowa State (2–0)
Last week: Beat South Dakota, 55–7
In contrast to their opponents back in Ireland, the return stateside went as expected as the Cyclones rolled a hapless FCS foe. Next up: an in-state rival who should be the stiffest test yet for some of the new pieces on offense.
16. TCU (1–0)
Last week: Beat North Carolina, 48–14
What a feeling that had to be for the Horned Frogs leaving Chapel Hill on Monday night after silencing all the chatter about Bill Belichick. The showcase game also should remind everybody why this is a team to take seriously in the Big 12 race.
17. Illinois (1–0)
Last week: Beat Western Illinois, 52–3
Took care of business to open the season and got some good tape on how to defend Darian Mensah next week at Duke. That’s a nice first weekend for the Illini.
18. SMU (1–0)
Last week: Beat East Texas A&M, 42–13
Stiffer tests await the Mustangs but anytime you can snag two pick-sixes in one game, you know you’re kicking off the season right.
19. Indiana (1–0)
Last week: Beat Old Dominion, 27–14
The Hoosiers got contributions in all three phases in a game that was not quite as close as the score would indicate, but they have to be much better in the red zone moving forward.
20. Texas Tech (1–0)
Last week: Beat Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 67–7
It felt like the images of that giant storm arriving in Lubbock garnered more attention than the Red Raiders’ play did in beating up an FCS team but things will change shortly for a roster that faces as much pressure as any to win this year.
21. Florida (1–0)
Last week: Beat Long Island, 55–0
Billy Napier said that the opener acted like DJ Lagway’s first scrimmage and it seems like he’s fine and dandy after spending an offseason on the sidelines following injuries. The young QB still has to stay healthy if the Gators want any chance of making it through this upcoming gauntlet though.
22. Michigan (1–0)
Last week: Beat New Mexico, 34–17
If not for some trickeration from the Lobos that made things closer than they should have been, the Wolverines had to be thrilled at how things went in Bryce Underwood’s first game.
23. Oklahoma (1–0)
Last week: Beat Illinois State, 35–3
All eyes on Norman for this week’s coming battle with Michigan after a quality effort from new QB John Mateer in an opener where he didn’t really need to stretch his legs.
24. Georgia Tech (1–0)
Last week: Beat Colorado, 27–20
Finally, we have it settled on the field as to who really was the 1990 national champion. Long-ago title talk aside, this team can really smash you and if they can solve some of those turnover issues, Haynes King and company might be more than dark horses in the conference race.
25. Tulane (1–0)
Last week: Beat Northwestern, 23–3
No surprise to see Jon Sumrall take a small slight about jerseys and turn it into a motivational factor, but boy was it noticeable to see just how much faster and more physical the Green Wave were than a Big Ten side. They should only get sharper on offense moving forward and can take a lead in the Group of 5 race by a hair over fellow American side USF, whom they notably don’t wind up playing in 2025 during the regular season.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as College Football Playoff Projection After Week 1: LSU, Ohio State Vie for Top Spot.
