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Sport
Phil Harrison

College Football Playoff predictions from FiveThirtyEight after Week 11

The college football season has just a couple of weeks left in the regular season and the number of teams that have a shot at making the College Football Playoff is dwindling. There are probably eight teams that can still get into all of the fun, but some need help.

Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan and TCU control their own paths. Tennessee, USC, Clemson and LSU can still put themselves in good position to give the College Football Playoff selection committee something to think about.

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One thing we know is either Ohio State or Michigan will lose in a couple of weeks, so it’s going to create some chaotic scenarios. Good luck trying to figure it all out.

That’s where the popular analytics website FiveThirtyEight comes into play. Each week, they take the results on the field and the College Football Playoff rankings to tweak their College Football Playoff Predictions model to determine which teams have the best chance of getting into the four-team field.

Here’s where things stand with each team’s chances of making the CFP, cutting it off with teams that only have a 5% or better chance still at this point in the season after Week 1.

No. 11 (tie) - Oregon Ducks (8-2)

An “End racism” sticker joins the American Flag on the helmets of Oregon players Saturday, Oct. 30, 2021. USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

5% ()

Chances if win out

29%

No. 11 (tie) - Kansas State Wildcats (7-3)

Nov. 6, 2021; Lawrence, Kansas; A general view of a Kansas State Wildcats helmet against the Kansas Jayhawks during the second half at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

5% ()

Chances if win out

19%

No. 10 - North Carolina Tar Heels (9-1)

Oct. 30, 2021; South Bend, Indiana; A detailed view of a North Carolina Tar Heels football helmet during warmups before the game against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Notre Dame Stadium. Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

8% ()

Chances if win out

40%

No. 9 - Utah Utes (8-2)

Sept. 14, 2019; Salt Lake City, Utah; A general view of the helmet worn by Utah Utes quarterback Tyler Huntley (1) against the Idaho State Bengals at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

13% ()

Chances if win out

42%

No. 8 - LSU Tigers

Oct. 6, 2018; Gainesville, Florida; A detailed view of LSU Tigers football helmets against the Florida Gators during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

14% (⇔)

Chances if win out

81%

No. 7 - USC Trojans (9-1)

Dec. 29, 2017; Arlington, Texas; General overall view of the 2017 Cotton Bowl logo on the back of the helmet of Southern California Trojans long snapper Jake Olson at AT&T Stadium. Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

17% ()

Chances if win out

81%

No. 6 - Clemson Tigers (9-1)

The Clemson football helmet near the Fiesta Bowl trophy at the coaches’ press conference in Scottsdale, Arizona Friday, Dec. 27, 2019. USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

39% ()

Chances if win out

72%

No. 5 - Michigan Wolverines (10-0)

Dec. 30, 2016; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; A Michigan Wolverines football helmet sits on the field prior to the game between the Florida State Seminoles and the Michigan Wolverines at Hard Rock Stadium. Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

44% ()

Chances if win out

>99%

No. 4 - Tennessee Volunteers (9-1)

Nov. 23, 2019; Columbia, Missouri; A general view of a Tennessee Volunteers helmet during the second half against the Missouri Tigers at Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field. Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

46% ()

Chances if win out

56%

No. 3 - TCU Horned Frogs (10-0)

July 14, 2022; Arlington, Texas; A view of the TCU Horned Frogs helmet logo during the Big 12 Media Day at AT&T Stadium. Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

49% ()

Chances if win out

>99%

No. 2 - Ohio State Buckeyes (10-0)

Ohio State Buckeyes offensive lineman Paris Johnson Jr. lifts tight end, Cade Stover, after he caught a touchdown pass. Syndication The Columbus Dispatch

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

67% ()

Chances if win out

>99%

No. 1 - Georgia Bulldogs (10-0)

Dec. 12, 2020; Columbia, Missouri; A detailed view of a Georgia Bulldogs helmet during the second half against the Missouri Tigers at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

88% ()

Chances if win out

>99%

Contact/Follow us @BuckeyesWire on Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Ohio State news, notes, and opinion. Follow Phil Harrison on Twitter.

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