It’s obviously way early, but the early future odds are out on winning the College Football Playoff National Championship. Where’s the good value?
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– Long Shots That Aren’t That Crazy
– Boring Safe Favorites Picks, But …
– Decent Odds, But Not Worth It
– The Best Value National Championship Futures Odds Picks Are …
We’re just about 11 months away from the 2020 College Football Playoff National Championship.
So now is when it’s time to find the right value – if you’re into the whole sports investing thing.
It might be fun to throw a few dollars down on a wild long shot, but winning the College Football Playoff is next to impossible. It’s obvious, but it’s not like trying to win the college basketball national championship, with good teams all hopeful to go on a six-game heater of a run at the right time starting in mid-March.
First, you have to be good enough to be unbeaten or win your Power Five conference championship with just one loss.
Second, see part one.
Third, just getting there isn’t enough. These future odds are about winning the whole thing, and not just being a 2018 Notre Dame and getting in the CFP after having a great season.
Starting with …
Don’t Bother With These Long Shots
They’re on the board, but nah. They’re long shots for a reason, and these are hard to justify even just to have a little fun.
Syracuse 250/1
The Orange do get Clemson in the Carrier Dome, and the schedule isn’t all that awful, but they’re not going to be good enough to get to 12-1.
Kentucky 250/1
There’s no Josh Allen on defense, no Benny Snell for the running game, and the Georgia game is on the road. However, the overall schedule is relatively terrific for an SEC team. But even if the Cats do somehow take the East, actually winning the SEC title is too massive a leap.
Missouri 150/1
Considering Mizzou is currently under an NCAA postseason ban, winning the national title might be tricky.
Virginia Tech 100/1
The Hokies are will be a whole lot better, but road games at Miami, Notre Dame and Virginia – and with, most likely, Clemson in the ACC title game – make 12-1 too far out there.
Utah 100/1
Can Utah win the Pac-12 title? Absolutely. Can it go 12-1? Maybe, even with road games at USC and Washington. But the Utes won’t be good enough to win two games in the College Football Playoff.
Iowa 66/1
At Michigan, at Wisconsin, at Northwestern, home against Penn State. Iowa has handled nasty schedules before under Kirk Ferentz, and winning the Big Ten West is possible, but no on the national championship.
UCF 66/1
It’s just so, so, so hard for any Group of Five team to be even considered for the CFP. UCF will be nasty again, but it’s not winning the whole thing.
Auburn 50/1
Yes, the Tigers were an SEC Championship win away from going to the CFP in 2017. Yes, they’ll be better. Here’s the issue: Oregon (in Arlington), at Texas A&M, at Florida, at LSU, Georgia, and Alabama. That’s not fair for anyone.
Mississippi State 50/1
Nah. Even with the improved offense, the defense won’t be as good. Having to to to Auburn, Tennessee and Texas A&M to go along with visits from LSU and Alabama will be too much to even get to the SEC Championship.
Nebraska 33/1
Of course you’re thinking that if Scott Frost could go unbeaten in his second year at UCF, maybe he can pull that same thing off at Nebraska. Not yet. The team will go on a roll, and all of the tough games are at home – Ohio State, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Iowa – but … not yet. The Huskers will be players in the Big Ten race, but … not yet on the national title front.
– Long Shots That Aren’t That Crazy
– Boring Safe Favorites Picks, But …
– Decent Odds, But Not Worth It
– The Best Value National Championship Futures Odds Picks Are …
NEXT: Long Shots That Aren’t That Crazy
Long Shots That Aren’t That Crazy
It’s not going to happen, buuuuuut … you’re not totally wrong if you want to make a massive value call.
USC 100/1
The talent is certainly coming into place. Injuries were an issue last season along with freshman QB JT Daniels getting his feet wet. But even with road games at Washington and Notre Dame, and home dates with Oregon and UCLA, this might just be the year the Trojans finally get into the tournament.
Speaking of being way overdue …
Wisconsin 50/1
The offensive line is suddenly a wee bit of an issue with just one starter back, and going to Ohio State and Nebraska – along with dealing with Michigan and Michigan State – will make it tough. But the D will be better, and the offensive talent is there to make a repeat of 2017 a possibility.
Penn State 50/1
There are a few assumptions here. One, the defense will be a killer. Two, Ohio State will take a wee step back. Three, Penn State can win two of the three against Michigan, at Michigan State, and at Ohio State. It’s not that massive a leap to think the Nittany Lions can win the Big Ten, but the national championship is a stretch.
Oregon 25/1
There’s something big happening. The Ducks have the guy who’ll be the second quarterback taken in the 2020 NFL Draft – after Tua Tagovailoa – in Justin Herbert, and almost all of the starters on both sides of the ball are back. HOWEVER, the season starts against Auburn, and there are road games at Stanford, Washington and USC. Oh yeah, and the Ducks probably have to beat Clemson and/or Alabama to win the national title.
– Don’t Bother With These Long Shots
– Boring Safe Favorites Picks, But …
– Decent Odds, But Not Worth It
– The Best Value National Championship Futures Odds Picks Are …
NEXT: Boring Safe Favorites Picks, But …
Boring Safe Favorites Picks, But …
Winning is never boring. It’s not fun to go with the obvious calls, but if you like one of these teams, then go do your thing.
Ohio State 9/1
What if Justin Fields is really that amazing? The defense should be stronger, the offense will still be explosive, and there might just be a bit more energy under Ryan Day. Yeah, the Buckeyes have to go to Nebraska, Northwestern and Michigan, and they have to host Michigan State and Wisconsin, but it’s Ohio State. Assume it’ll go 11-1, and work from there.
Georgia 6/1
If the focus is there, and if Jake Fromm can stay healthy, there’s a lot to like. Going to Tennessee is tough, and Florida will be a harder out, and going to Auburn isn’t easy, but the Texas A&M and Notre Dame games are at home, and … it’s Georgia. On talent, it’ll be one of the four best teams.
Alabama 11/4
And now you’ve angered it. You don’t think Bama is going to come back roaring? Yeah, it has to go to Texas A&M, but it gets a week off to prepare. It also gets a week off to get ready for the home game against LSU. There are road games at Mississippi State and Auburn, but are you really going to go against the Crimson Tide getting into the College Football Playoff again?
Clemson 9/4
Start with the assumption that Clemson is the one team out there that’s a mortal lock to at least get into the College Football Playoff. Even if it loses to Texas A&M, or at Syracuse, or at NC State, or at South Carolina, or to Florida State, it’s almost certainly not going to lose two of those games … maybe. The Tigers will be fantastic, but the national championship-winning odds aren’t good enough to buy in now.
– Don’t Bother With These Long Shots
– Long Shots That Aren’t That Crazy
– Decent Odds, But Not Worth It
– The Best Value National Championship Futures Odds Picks Are …
NEXT: Decent Odds, But Not Worth It
Decent Odds, But Not Worth It
Oh yes, you’ll be tempted. Other than Notre Dame, these teams can absolutely win their respective Power Five conference championships. However, taking that next step to win a College Football Playoff game is going to be tough, much less two of them.
Washington 25/1
The defending Pac-12 champ will be really, really, really good again. However, even with another amazing defense – and a possible upgrade at quarterback if Georgia transfer Jacob Eason is ready to rock – but the conference is better, too. The schedule, though, is good enough to win another conference title and get to the CFP. But under Chris Petersen, the program has yet to win a really, really, really big non-conference game.
Notre Dame 25/1
50/1? Okay, maybe on a flier, but 25/1 isn’t worth the trouble considering the schedule is a whole lot tougher. At Georgia, at Michigan, at Stanford – the Irish aren’t running the table again.
Texas 20/1
Get ready for the Longhorns to be really, really trendy. Can they beat LSU in early-September, and beat Oklahoma, at win at TCU and West Virginia, and win at Baylor, and beat – most likely – Oklahoma again in the Big 12 Championship? And after that, win two games in the CFP? At 20/1, there’s not enough juice there.
Michigan 16/1
If Jim Harbaugh finally pulls it off, you tip your cap and move on. However, you’ve seen how this team has folded over the last few years in key spots, and now it has to go on the road to face Wisconsin and Penn State. It also has home games against Notre Dame, Michigan State and Ohio State.
– Don’t Bother With These Long Shots
– Long Shots That Aren’t That Crazy
– Boring Safe Favorites Picks, But …
– The Best Value National Championship Futures Odds Picks Are …
NEXT: The Best Value National Championship Futures Odds Picks Are …
The Best Value National Championship Futures Odds Picks Are …
Miami 50/1
Get in now for one reason – the odds are going to drop through the floor if QB Tate Martell is ruled eligible for this year. Manny Diaz might just be a head coaching upgrade over Mark Richt – at least in terms of energy and ideas – and the new transfers coming in should do wonders for the offense.
The schedule? At Florida State. That’s it. The Canes will likely be favored in every other game. Can they beat Clemson in the ACC title game? Can they win two CFP games? At 50/1, it’s a solid shot at the stars.
Texas A&M 50/1
Oh yeah, you like the Aggies at 50/1.
If you’re looking for one of the teams that’s about to make a big jump up in Year Two under a head coach, it’s this one. Jimbo Fisher is upgrading the talent, and he’s getting the pieces in place.
Okay, so there’s a reason the odds are so massive. The Aggies have to go to Clemson, Georgia and LSU, and host Alabama and Auburn. However, if they can somehow get to the SEC Championship and win it, they can get in with two losses … if they lose two games.
LSU 33/1
The talent is there to be just that good again, if not better. Is there enough in place to win the SEC West? Yup. Is there enough in place to win the SEC? Yup. Win the conference, get into the CFP, and at 33/1, it’s a solid value pick early in the process.
The schedule isn’t easy, but LSU isn’t going to be afraid of playing Texas on the road. It can beat Mississippi State on the road, and it gets a week off before dealing with Alabama. Texas A&M, Auburn and Florida all have to come to Death Valley.
Oklahoma 16/1
What if Jalen Hurts is the right quarterback for Oklahoma to win a national title?
No one’s expecting him to be another Baker Mayfield or Kyler Murray when it comes to passing stats, but he’s been there before on college football’s biggest stage, and those two never got a chance.
If the defense is just a wee bit better, and the offense is still terrific – even if it’s in a different way – then maybe this is the year to take that next step.
And the schedule? Going to UCLA will be tricky, and going to Oklahoma State is always dangerous, but come on. Those can’t be barriers if the Sooners are national title good. They’ll be favored in every game except for the Texas showdown – maybe.
At 16/1 to win it all? Yeah, sure. But as soon as it drops, then it’s probably not worth the chance.
– Don’t Bother With These Long Shots
– Long Shots That Aren’t That Crazy
– Boring Safe Favorites Picks, But …
– Decent Odds, But Not Worth It
– The Best Value National Championship Futures Odds Picks Are …
