On Saturday afternoon, a team that fancies itself an underdog and still laments the perceived lack of respect from people outside Schembechler Hall will travel to East Lansing, favored by more than a field goal, and face an undefeated team ranked No. 8 in the country.
Such is the strange reality Michigan football has created during a season that began sans national expectations following a 2-4 landslide in 2020, only to have more and more of the voices around college football reconsider with each victory for the sixth-ranked Wolverines. And after seven wins in seven attempts, the oddsmakers not only believe in coach Jim Harbaugh’s club, they think U-M can defeat Michigan State football, a top-10 opponent, on the road to secure bragging rights in a contentious in-state rivalry.
“There’s the approach of one game at a time, which you need to do,” Harbaugh said during his Monday news conference. “You have to do that and you have to practice that and it has to be implemented, lest the team be painfully humbled. Now we’re in a situation, huge game. In some ways, that mindset is similar. But in other ways it definitely gets turned up a notch.”
In addition to the usual spoils of bragging rights and a potential edge with in-state recruits, this year’s game is intensified by undefeated starts from both Michigan and MSU that usher in College Football Playoff implications. Whichever team leaves Spartan Stadium victorious will boast a signature win on its postseason resume.
Heightened stakes have forced the Wolverines into a balancing act following an offseason and first two months of the season fueled by motivational mantras that, to varying extents, no longer seem to apply. In addition to viewing themselves as underdogs, which players said will continue for the remainder of the year, one of U-M’s oft-repeated phrases is the idea of “nameless and faceless opponents,” implying the Wolverines should focus on themselves.
The mantra seems to have originated from linebackers coach George Helow, who has received positive reviews from players during his first season. Helow began emphasizing the philosophy during fall camp, according to inside linebacker Josh Ross, and the players quickly adopted it as their own. Ross, outside linebacker David Ojabo and nose tackle Mazi Smith have all invoked the saying during news conferences, though its applicability feels more questionable in a week like this.
“At the end of the day, it is nameless, faceless opponents,” Ross said. “Regardless of who we play, that’s how we view it. We’re just trying to go get it. But it is Michigan State week, and we know that.”
Another concept U-M espouses is the notion that a season should be taken one week at a time, one game at a time, with the goal of posting a 1-0 record every Saturday. Looking ahead to future opponents, concerning themselves with national rankings or making comparisons to other programs are likened to heresy. As with racehorses, the U-M coaches and players say they rely on metaphorical blinders.
But something about this week’s game altered Harbaugh’s tune when he met with the media Monday afternoon. For the first time this season, Harbaugh connected the dots from his team to a potential playoff berth and characterized what he hopes will be a win over the Spartans as a potential catalyst. The rhetoric was surprising given the program’s commitment to remaining focused on the present.
“It sure would give (our resume) a boost,” Harbaugh said. “You’re talking about all the way to the — win the conference and win the national championship? Yeah, it’s one of those. It’s an elimination mindset. You’ve got a playoff mindset at this point. Win this game, that will help your chances.”
Statisticians agree. Michigan enters Saturday’s game with a 22% chance of winning the Big Ten, a 25% chance of reaching the CFP and a 5% chance of winning the national title, according to the projection model on the website FiveThirtyEight. Across the board, those are the second-best odds in the conference behind Ohio State.
Working against U-M is its strength of schedule the rest of the season, according to Pro Football Focus. Of the 10 teams with the strongest statistical chances to reach the CFP — Georgia, Oklahoma, Alabama, Cincinnati, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Michigan, Wake Forest, Notre Dame and Iowa — the Wolverines have the toughest remaining schedule and the seventh-hardest slate in all of college football.
But the odds swing considerably if the Wolverines can beat MSU, even when factoring in a potential Ohio State victory over Penn State the same day. Michigan’s odds would improve to a 31% chance of winning the Big Ten, a 35% chance of reaching the playoff and a 7% chance of winning the national title, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Dispatching the Spartans would give Michigan a legitimate reason to dream.
“I think it would mean a lot for us as a program,” left tackle Ryan Hayes said. “I think it could really help propel us through the rest of the season.”
