With Thanksgiving in the rearview, the College Football Playoff picture is about to come into clear view. After weeks of selection committee rankings releases, we have an idea of what the 12-team field will look like: No matter what happens moving forward, you can expect to see Ohio State, Indiana and Texas A&M in the field. Georgia, Texas Tech and Oregon are overwhelmingly likely to make it as well, and barring some stunning upsets and bad results elsewhere, Ole Miss and Notre Dame can be penciled in as well.
Oklahoma and Alabama find themselves on the right side of the cutline, but need to survive upset bids from talented-if-flawed LSU and Auburn teams to secure their positions. BYU and Miami are currently in the Top 12, but are poised to get bumped in favor of the fourth and fifth-highest ranked conference champions (unless of course, the Cougars and Hurricanes are champions themselves). Utah, Vanderbilt, Michigan and Texas are the next four teams in the rankings, hoping things break their way over the next two weekends to steal bids.
Some of these programs can still win conference championships and land automatic bids to the field. Others need a whole lot of help from other games across the country to have a shot. Before we break down the scenarios for a variety of these teams, here is what the College Football Playoff field looks like as of Tuesday’s rankings.
Current College Football Playoff rankings, 12-team field if season ended today
The current projections would have No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten), No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC), No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12), No. 12 Miami (ACC) and No. 24 Tulane (American) as the five automatic bid teams. However, as we’ll outline below, Miami is very unlikely to claim the ACC’s bid, as it needs a lot of help to reach the ACC championship game. Virginia and SMU are currently in line to play for the conference title and a likely playoff spot.
With that being said, here is what the bracket would look like ahead of Week 14:
For the top 11 teams in the field, the situation is very clear as they control their own destinies. No. 11 BYU doesn’t have a ton of wiggle room, as they likely need to clinch their spot in the Big 12 championship game and beat Texas Tech (or whichever team ultimately reaches the field) to earn an automatic bid, as an at-large appears to be very unlikely.
The same can’t be said for schools like Miami, who are on the outside looking in for the ACC championship. Beginning with the Hurricanes, here are the situations for the top bubble teams in the country.
No. 12 Miami Hurricanes (9–2, 5–2 ACC)
The Canes may be the highest-ranked ACC team, but because of a pair of one-score losses in conference (and not the kind that the selection committee values), Miami needs a lot of help to make the conference championship. With a 5–2 ACC record, the Canes are behind Virginia, Pitt and SMU in the loss column and tied with Georgia Tech and Duke. They can earn a tiebreaker with the Panthers on Saturday when the two teams go head-to-head but need a number of other results to go their way to get back into the ACC title game picture.
Miami can make the ACC championship if it:
- Beats Pitt AND Virginia loses AND Duke loses AND SMU wins or
- Beats Pitt AND SMU loses AND Duke loses AND Virginia loses AND NC State wins or
- Beats Pitt AND SMU loses AND Duke loses AND Virginia loses AND UNC wins AND Syracuse wins or
- Beats Pitt AND SMU loses AND Duke loses AND Virginia wins AND NC State wins AND Syracuse wins
If the Hurricanes can not sneak their way in, they likely need to move up to at least No. 10 in the final CFP rankings. That means rooting against Oklahoma (vs. LSU), Alabama (at Auburn), BYU (vs. UCF) and of course Notre Dame (vs. Stanford). A Fighting Irish loss to the Cardinal is very unlikely, but if Miami can move into a close discussion with Notre Dame, it will be very difficult for the selection committee to avoid moving them ahead of the Irish given their Week 1 head-to-head win. To this point, the committee hasn’t really entertained that debate, even with Miami coming within striking distance of Notre Dame this week.
No. 13 Utah Utes (9–2, 6–2 Big 12)
The Utes were blasted by Texas Tech, lost to BYU but have looked exceptional against the rest of the Big 12. Last weekend’s dramatic 51–47 win against Kansas State was the team’s only conference victory by less than 27 points.
And yet, because of those two losses to the teams projected to reach AT&T Stadium, the Utes need real help. Utah can reach the game and play for an automatic bid after beating Kansas on Friday, with a Texas Tech loss at West Virginia, an Arizona State win vs. Arizona and a BYU win vs. UCF. That would set up a Utah vs. BYU rivalry game rematch for the conference title game.
Without a title shot, Utah finds itself in a similar situation as Miami, rooting for a litany of upsets as it hopes to claw its way up to No. 10.
No. 14 Vanderbilt Commodores (9–2, 5–2 SEC)
In 2018, a Derek Mason-led Vanderbilt squad blasted Jeremy Pruitt’s Tennessee 38–13 to clinch bowl eligibility and end the Vols’ chances of going to the postseason. It was the third consecutive win for the Commodores against their in-state rivals and they haven’t come particularly close since. Neither team requires added motivation for Saturday’s rivalry game, but Diego Pavia & Co. would love to end their program’s losing streak in the series ... and keep the CFP dream alive.
Unlike the Hurricanes and Utes above, Vanderbilt cannot find its way into the SEC championship game with this weekend’s results, so the only chance for the Dores to head to the playoff is as an at-large. First order of business: win the Tennessee game, and ideally add some style points in the process. From there, Vandy should be rooting for Texas Tech to take care of business in the Big 12 and eliminate the chance of BYU, Utah or Arizona State sneaking into the CFP. They also need some chaos this weekend, with potential Alabama, Notre Dame and Oklahoma losses all helping the Dores. Vandy’s 30–14 loss to Alabama is a particular issue for Clark Lea’s program. They should also root on Ohio State to stave off Michigan. More on that in a minute.
ESPN’s playoff predictor gives Vanderbilt just an 11% chance of making the CFP, which bumps to 27% with a win over Tennessee.
No. 15 Michigan Wolverines (9–2, 7–1 Big Ten)
Michigan has flown under the radar as far as the Big Ten and CFP races are concerned virtually all season, but on the eve of The Game, everything remains in play for Sherrone Moore’s Wolverines.
If Michigan can deal Ohio State a fifth straight loss in their epic rivalry, the Wolverines will have the best win in the country this year, a data point that could vault UM directly into the conversation at the bottom of the CFP discussion, especially with a pair of losses to Oklahoma and USC that don’t look bad. It would also open the door to the Big Ten championship, if Oregon falls to Washington and/or the much less likely possibility that Indiana loses to Purdue.
Without a conference title, even a win over Ohio State may be too little, too late for the Wolverines, though some havoc above them could give them an opening. ESPN’s FPI-based playoff predictor gives Michigan a 40% chance of making the field at 10–2 with a win over Ohio State, and 36% if they reach the Big Ten championship and lose.
No. 16 Texas Longhorns (8–3, 5–2 SEC)
With Texas already dropping three games this year, a trip to the CFP is a major longshot.
Texas has no chance to reach the SEC championship. The strength of their résumé lies in two very good wins over teams above them in the playoff race—Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. The Horns lost their season opener to Ohio State and were blown out by Georgia, though, with a mid-season loss to a Florida program that went on to fire its coach serving as the likely fatal blow to its chances. A win over Texas A&M to end the year would be excellent, but likely not enough to vault Texas all the way up to the No. 10 spot.
Perhaps a wild sweep of losses for Oklahoma, Alabama, Notre Dame, BYU, Miami, Vanderbilt and Michigan with a convincing win over the Aggies could get Texas into the mix as the Longhorns would have two head-to-head wins over fellow three-loss teams and the best win of the group, but the chances of enough of those results happening are pretty infinitesimal.
Arizona State, SMU and other programs that can crash the party as conference champions
The Big Ten and SEC are projected to gobble up most of the at-large bids in this year’s field, and could prove to be the only leagues to get more than one bid. That is very likely if Texas Tech wins the Big 12, as the Red Raiders will likely make the field no matter what at this point.
Outside of Texas Tech, BYU and the aforementioned Utah, Arizona State remains alive for the Big 12. If the Sun Devils win the Territorial Cup against Arizona and BYU loses, they will face Texas Tech in the conference title. ASU won their regular season game 26–22, but will be without quarterback Sam Leavitt this go around.
The ACC is even more muddled. Virginia and SMU can both make it in with wins over Virginia Tech and Cal, respectively. If Pitt beats Miami, they’ll be in if either the Cavaliers or Mustangs lose. Georgia Tech and five-loss Duke still have long shot chances to reach the game. Full ACC conference championship scenarios are available here.
The final conference championship slot is likely going to the American Conference champion. Tulane and North Texas would get into the game with wins over Charlotte and Temple, respectively. Navy, which beat Memphis on Thanksgiving night, is in with a loss by either team. If both Tulane and North Texas lose, either South Florida or ECU would face Navy, with the tiebreaker decided by a blend of composite computer rankings put together by the league.
The Green Wave are the only Group of 5 program in the current rankings, and if they or the Mean Green fail to reach the American Championship game, it opens the door for James Madison to potential jump into that spot. The Dukes have already clinched the Sun Belt East. Beat Coastal Carolina in Week 14 and win the Sun Belt convincingly, and they have a chance to jump a weaker American champion with a 12–1 record.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as College Football Playoff: How Programs Like Miami, Michigan Can Still Make Field.
