One of the great things about the 12-team College Football Playoff is the expansion of teams that can legitimately say they are in the hunt deep into the season. That was the case last year and it certainly is again in a season that is trending toward being one of the most chaotic the sport has had.
As the selection committee prepares to meet next week in Dallas for the first time to rank teams, Sports Illustrated looks at the entire field to see which teams are removing themselves from CFP contention after taking losses—or simply not playing well.
Enter The Eliminator, where we’re cutting teams and seeing which ones still have (an often mathematical) chance to play for the national title. Here’s where things stand after Week 9.
College Football Playoff field after Week 9
44 teams, 32% of FBS
- ACC (8)
- Big 12 (7)
- Big Ten (8)
- SEC (9)
- Independent (1)
- American (7)
- Mountain West (3)
- Sun Belt (1)
Teams eliminated after Saturday
- Cal
- Arizona State
- Minnesota
- Illinois
- UCLA
- LSU
Out of the playoff chase
89 teams, 65% of FBS
- ACC (8)
- Big 12 (8)
- Big Ten (7)
- SEC (5)
- Independent (1)
- American (7)
- CUSA (12)
- MAC (13)
- Mountain West (9)
- Pac-12 (2)
- Sun Belt (13)
ACC
Alive: Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pittsburgh, Louisville, SMU, Duke, Miami, Wake Forest
The ACC has seven teams with one or fewer losses in conference play, which creates some potential chaos to who makes it to Charlotte for the conference title game and who misses out on the league’s automatic bid. Miami remains the only team safely into the CFP field with wins over Notre Dame, South Florida and, to a lesser extent, Florida. The Hurricanes didn’t play well against Louisville, but that loss actually takes them out of a number of tiebreaker scenarios to make it to the ACC championship game (all but ensuring two bids from the league). One interesting team not on the radar is Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons have only one bad loss (home against NC State) and came ever so close to knocking off Georgia Tech.
Eliminated: Cal
The Bears could not hold onto a double-digit halftime lead on the road in Blacksburg, Va., and fell to Virginia Tech for their third loss of the season. Cal had technically been alive as a real long shot with two losses but finally stopped flirting with getting another loss in the fourth quarter and took one in double overtime.
Out: Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, NC State, North Carolina, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech
Big 12
Alive: BYU, Cincinnati, Texas Tech, Houston, Utah, TCU, Kansas State
There’s an entirely fathomable scenario where Houston wins out, Texas Tech wins out (thus beating BYU) and Cincinnati wins all of its games but loses at home to the Cougars in a few weeks. That would produce four Big 12 teams with 8–1 conference marks and three with 11–1 overall records going into championship weekend (the Bearcats would be 10–2). That would produce a deep dive into the league’s tiebreaker scenarios and a massive headache for the committee given none of the contenders have any big nonconference wins.
We can also call attention to the Horned Frogs and Wildcats as key teams to keep an eye on down the stretch. They have only two conference losses and could somehow muddy things up enough to potentially make it to Arlington, Texas, for the conference title game if the season really went off the rails with tiebreakers. They also play many of the other key contenders in the next few weeks so they will have a say either way.
Eliminated: Arizona State
Injuries just haven’t allowed Arizona State to play like it is capable of this season, with a 24–16 loss to Houston being the latest reminder. At 5–3 and with a bad nonconference loss to Mississippi State, the Sun Devils won’t be able to repeat their magical run from a year ago.
Out: Arizona, Baylor, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma State, UCF, West Virginia
Big Ten
Alive: Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, Iowa, Michigan, USC, Washington, Nebraska
Can the Big Ten still place four teams in the playoff? That’s going to be the big question looming over the final month of league play as it has two absolute locks in Ohio State and Indiana, plus a near-lock based on the eye test in Oregon. The Ducks’ résumé could wind up costing them in terms of seeding, but as a one-loss team in a Power 2 conference, they are still trending toward the playoff with relative ease. Behind them, there’s a host of two-loss teams that could still rightfully harbor hopes of making the field at 10–2. In reality, the Big Ten’s best case could hinge on either Iowa, USC or Washington upsetting Oregon or, gulp, Michigan beating Ohio State in the Big House to end the regular season. That latter one would certainly carry some narratives with it, too.
Eliminated: Minnesota, Illinois, UCLA
Realistically this group was only alive mathematically to somehow make it to Indianapolis for the conference title game, but it’s time to move them firmly to the out group following blowout losses on the road. The Gophers and Bruins still have only two league losses, but also have difficult schedules upcoming and their three (or more) overall losses put them firmly out of consideration as any sort of at-large. That’s not breaking news to any of those fan bases after Week 8’s disappointing results ended whatever faint hope there was.
Out: Maryland, Michigan State, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, Wisconsin
SEC
Alive: Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Vanderbilt, Texas, Tennessee, Missouri, Oklahoma
The SEC is tracking toward locking up four playoff bids with ease but might need help in the ACC—or with Notre Dame—taking a loss down the stretch if it truly wants to land an unprecedented five. Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia and Ole Miss are approaching lock territory, but there’s still competition for Vanderbilt, Tennessee and yes, even Oklahoma should it upset the Vols and Tide in consecutive weeks.
Eliminated: LSU
What more needs to be said at this point about the Tigers, who not only picked up a killer third loss but all but confirmed they have also given up on the season by firing Brian Kelly on Sunday? The talent is clearly there in Baton Rouge, but this group never recovered from that initial setback against Ole Miss and now has lost three out of four going into next week at Alabama.
Out: Florida, Auburn, South Carolina, Arkansas, Kentucky
Independent
Alive: Notre Dame
We’ll get a much better read on the Irish once the committee releases its initial Top 25, but they badly need Boise State, USC, Navy and Pitt to keep winning in order to provide some decent wins. It also helps if they can absolutely thump their remaining ACC opponents by four scores (or more) down the stretch because the lack of marquee wins could bite them in the seeding process.
Out: UConn
American
Alive: Navy, Tulane, Memphis, South Florida, North Texas, Temple, East Carolina
It’s not 100% that the American conference champion gets the Group of 5 bid, but it’s close enough. Memphis’s upset of USF throws in some interesting tiebreak scenarios, but this is as wide open as things come for a very lucrative playoff race for the league. East Carolina is even somehow still in things with just one conference loss. Temple might be one of the bigger turnaround stories in the country having gotten to this point despite winning just three games or fewer the last five years. Right now, Tulane still has the best overall résumé with two solid Power 4 wins and a loss on the road to a fellow CFP team, but it’s anybody’s guess as to who emerges come December.
Out: Army, Charlotte, FAU, Rice, Tulsa, UAB, UTSA
Conference USA
Out: Kennesaw State, Jacksonville State, Western Kentucky, Missouri State, Liberty, Delaware, Louisiana Tech, Florida International, UTEP, New Mexico State, MTSU, Sam Houston
MAC
Out: Miami (Ohio), Central Michigan, Ohio, Buffalo, Western Michigan, Toledo, Ball State, Kent State, Akron, Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, Eastern Michigan, UMass
Mountain West
Alive: Boise State, San Diego State, UNLV
There are a slim number of scenarios where the Mountain West champ still goes to the playoff, but the conference certainly needs help. One involves a two- or three-loss team winning the American (that’s ideally not USF) and then either a 12–1 Aztecs or Rebels team winning the league. There’s also a slim chance Boise State runs the table by blowing teams out and then there’s chaos in the American, but there’s surprisingly little the league can do on the field to enhance its case right now.
Out: Hawai’i, New Mexico, Fresno State, Utah State, Wyoming, San Jose State, Colorado State, Air Force, Nevada
Pac-12
Out: Washington State, Oregon State
Sun Belt
Alive: James Madison
The Dukes are still hanging around as a potential one-loss conference champion, especially if things are chaotic in the American. Keep in mind that they played Louisville extremely well on the road early in the season and may wind up having a win over the Conference USA champion if Liberty wins out. It would help tremendously if Southern Miss rolls into the Sun Belt title game with double-digit victories, too.
Out: Coastal Carolina, Marshall, Old Dominion, App State, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Southern Miss, Troy, Arkansas State, UL Monroe, Louisiana, South Alabama, Texas State
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as College Football Playoff Eliminator: Which Teams Are Out or Alive for a Berth After Week 9.
