One of the great things about the 12-team College Football Playoff is the expansion of teams that can legitimately say they are in the hunt deep into the season. That was the case last year and it certainly is again in a season that is trending toward being one of the most chaotic the sport has had.
As the selection committee prepares to meet on Tuesday in Dallas for the fourth time to rank teams, I looked at the entire field to see which teams are removing themselves from CFP contention after taking losses—or simply not playing well.
Enter The Eliminator, where we’re cutting teams and seeing which ones still have (an often mathematical) chance to play for the national title. We’re locking in teams to the playoff field as well. Here’s where things stand after Week 13.
College Football Playoff field after Week 13
Playoff Locks
Five teams, 42% of the bracket
- Ohio State
- Indiana
- Texas A&M
- Georgia
- Mississippi
Alive for a playoff bid
22 teams, 16% of FBS
- ACC (4)
- Big 12 (3)
- Big Ten (4)
- SEC (6)
- Independent (1)
- American (3)
- Sun Belt (1)
Teams eliminated after Saturday
- Georgia Tech
- Cincinnati
- USC
- East Carolina
Out of the playoff chase
114 teams, 84% of FBS
- ACC (13)
- Big 12 (13)
- Big Ten (14)
- SEC (10)
- Independent (1)
- American (11)
- CUSA (12)
- MAC (13)
- Mountain West (12)
- Pac-12 (2)
- Sun Belt (13)
ACC
Alive: Virginia, Pittsburgh, SMU, Miami
There are some who reject the ACC for the chaos it brings about on itself and there are others who embrace it. Hopefully you fall in the latter category as this has been one of the most interesting leagues to follow for the stretch run to the playoff given the revolving door of contenders. The conference title game scenarios are all over the map. SMU is in a win-and-in situation at California this weekend. The Mustangs are primed to have another shot at the CFP given that they have only lost one regular-season conference game in three years. Virginia can also make it to Charlotte with a victory over rival Virginia Tech on Saturday. Miami remains in the running for an at-large and can still make it to the conference title game with a win over Pitt plus losses by the Cavaliers and Mustangs. The Panthers need to beat Miami and hope one of the Hoos or Ponies take a loss, but are still alive. The ACC Coastal may be no more, but its legacy is surely being felt in the conference.
Eliminated: Georgia Tech
The Yellow Jackets, especially on defense, have played with fire all season long. Against Pitt on Saturday night, they finally got burnt to send their CFP hopes up in flames. Now, there are still several wild scenarios where there are five ACC teams that finish with 6–2 records and Georgia Tech somehow makes it to Charlotte, but the amount of results needed for that to occur, even in this edition of the league, is a bit far-fetched so it’s time to send Brent Key’s team to the outskirts.
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Louisville, NC State, North Carolina, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big 12
Alive: BYU, Texas Tech, Utah
We’ll see how the committee treats the Utes’ narrow escape against Kansas State after using all of their Rice-Eccles Stadium magic to survive a game in which they allowed over 450 yards rushing. While Kyle Whittingham’s team technically has a path to reaching the Big 12 championship game, they are all but consigned to the at-large pool and that may no longer be the case if they get dropped behind the likes of Miami and Vanderbilt on Tuesday. Meanwhile, we remain locked on a rematch between BYU and Texas Tech at AT&T Stadium next week with wins by either in their final regular-season games.
Eliminated: Cincinnati
There were a handful of times where you thought the Bearcats were on the verge of finding their way back into that game against BYU, but it never seemed to materialize. Now they are on a three-game losing streak at the worst point. While they have been eliminated from the CFP chase, the fact that they were in it to begin with is probably a nice sign of progress in the Queen City.
Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
Big Ten
Locks: Ohio State, Indiana
With a snoozer against Rutgers for the Buckeyes and the Hoosiers on an off week, there was no change to the status of either of the Big Ten’s top tier. Wins for both next week can move them into rarified territory and lock up quarterfinal byes in the playoff.
Alive: Oregon, Michigan
The Ducks are not quite a lock just yet. Given how beat up they are with injuries, that game in Seattle against a pesky Washington team is no give-me either. They should only feel safe about the CFP with a win there and then they can look ahead to hosting that first-round game in what should be a raucous Autzen Stadium in the first round. As for Michigan, a win against Ohio State would not automatically send them to Indianapolis for the conference title game but would make it almost a lock that they wind up as a 10–2 at-large.
Eliminated: USC
Is this a better season, relative to recent expectations, for the Trojans in the Big Ten? Surely. They’ve lost to a pair of playoff teams on the road in competitive games and will likely blame some late calls in that loss to Illinois earlier this season with a bit of a body-clock situation. But as Sports Illustrated writer Pat Forde points out, the school isn’t paying Lincoln Riley the big bucks to simply come close to CFP bids but to get into the tournament and win some. That’s now the bar going into a critical 2026 season that does not feature the easiest schedule.
Out: Minnesota, Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Washington, Wisconsin
SEC
Locks: Georgia, Mississippi, Texas A&M
These three are only playing for seeding at this point, but that is a far more interesting question surrounding the Rebels given what is going on with Lane Kiffin. If he is somehow not around Oxford for the team’s first round game, it will be mighty interesting to see how far the team could drop in the rankings given the selection committee would have to account for the loss of their leader and offensive play caller. It would be unfair to the players themselves to keep Ole Miss fully out of the bracket but sending them on the road to play Alabama, Oklahoma or Notre Dame shouldn’t be ruled out by Ole Miss brass as they hold conversations prior to the Egg Bowl.
Alive: Alabama, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt
Oklahoma is on the verge of being win-and-in against LSU at home on Saturday but will need to look more impressive than it did against Missouri or else hosting a first-round playoff game isn’t a lock. The Commodores not only need to win impressively at Neyland Stadium against their in-state rivals, but could really use the Tigers to pull the upset in Norman, Okla., and hope Miami loses to Pitt as well.
Eliminated: None
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas
Independent
Alive: Notre Dame
It’s one thing to blow out overmatched opponents, it’s another to put up historic numbers against them as the Irish did against Syracuse. Now they have a long trip and a late night in the Bay Area ahead, but it’s otherwise win-and-in for Marcus Freeman’s team while hoping somebody slips up so they get another first-round game at Notre Dame Stadium.
Out: UConn
American
Alive: Navy, Tulane, North Texas
The committee will have a lot to consider this week, not the least of which is to consider ranking North Texas as well as Tulane in their next Top 25. The Green Wave have the inside track to host the conference title game but could probably enjoy the clarity that would come with the Mean Green breaking into the committee’s rankings to draw one step closer to knowing their opponent next Friday night in New Orleans. As for the Midshipmen, they need to win on Thanksgiving at Memphis and hope North Texas drops its finale against Temple.
Eliminated: East Carolina
The Pirates have overperformed this season, but all good things must come to an end. They pretty much crashed down in the Alamodome in that loss to UTSA.
Out: Army, Charlotte, FAU, Memphis, Rice, South Florida, Temple, Tulsa, UAB, UTSA
Conference USA
Out: Kennesaw State, Jacksonville State, Western Kentucky, Missouri State, Liberty, Delaware, Louisiana Tech, Florida International, UTEP, New Mexico State, MTSU, Sam Houston
MAC
Out: Miami (Ohio), Central Michigan, Ohio, Buffalo, Western Michigan, Toledo, Ball State, Kent State, Akron, Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, Eastern Michigan, UMass
Mountain West
Out: Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Hawai’i, Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State, San Jose State, UNLV, Utah State, Wyoming
Pac-12
Out: Washington State, Oregon State
Sun Belt
Alive: James Madison
There were a few nervy moments for Dukes supporters against Washington State on Saturday but they survived that one and inch closer to the Sun Belt title game. That four-point margin against the Cougars should be noted as it was more than what fellow CFP contenders Ole Miss and Virginia were able to put up—but a lot less than North Texas’s margin at home against the same Wazzu squad. Still, having a shot is better than the alternative for James Madison at this point in the season.
Out: Coastal Carolina, Marshall, Old Dominion, App State, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Southern Miss, Troy, Arkansas State, UL Monroe, Louisiana, South Alabama, Texas State
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as College Football Playoff Eliminator: Which Teams Are Out or Alive for a Berth After Week 13.
