One of the great things about the 12-team College Football Playoff is the expansion of teams that can legitimately say they are in the hunt deep into the season. That was the case last year and it certainly is again in a season that is trending toward being one of the most chaotic the sport has had.
As the selection committee prepares to meet on Tuesday in Dallas for the third time to rank teams, I looked at the entire field to see which teams are removing themselves from CFP contention after taking losses—or simply not playing well.
Enter The Eliminator, where we’re cutting teams and seeing which ones still have (an often mathematical) chance to play for the national title. New this week: We’re locking in teams to the playoff field as well. Here’s where things stand after Week 12.
College Football Playoff field after Week 12
Playoff Locks
Five teams, 42% of the bracket
- Ohio State
- Indiana
- Texas A&M
- Georgia
- Mississippi
Alive for a playoff bid
26 teams, 19% of FBS
- ACC (5)
- Big 12 (4)
- Big Ten (5)
- SEC (6)
- Independent (1)
- American (4)
- Sun Belt (1)
Teams eliminated after Saturday
- Duke
- Louisville
- Texas
- South Florida
Out of the playoff chase
110 teams, 81% of FBS
- ACC (12)
- Big 12 (12)
- Big Ten (13)
- SEC (10)
- Independent (1)
- American (10)
- CUSA (12)
- MAC (13)
- Mountain West (12)
- Pac-12 (2)
- Sun Belt (13)
ACC
Alive: Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pittsburgh, SMU, Miami
It was not the greatest of weekends for the ACC (again), but despite the league’s overall hopes taking a hit when it comes to getting multiple teams into the playoff, there are still plenty of contenders in the running to make it to Charlotte to compete for the automatic bid. That includes Pitt, even though it lost to Notre Dame, and Georgia Tech after the Yellow Jackets pulled off a surprising miracle against Boston College. Virginia won far more convincingly against Duke and it is still favored to make it to December with everything on the line, even though Miami’s at-large hopes took a bit of a hit when Oklahoma upset Alabama to expand the SEC’s footprint in the bracket.
Eliminated: Duke, Louisville
It wasn’t long ago that people thought Louisville could be sitting there at the end of the season with just one loss, but they’ve been quickly disabused of that notion after the Cardinals’ latest stunner against Clemson in which they snatched a defeat from the jaws of victory. There were penalties, bad snaps, terrible special teams and too many dreadful mistakes to recount as Jeff Brohm’s team went from a potential playoff berth to well down the bowl pecking order in the conference. Things are not much better in Durham, N.C., after Duke dropped to 5–5 with three losses in its last four games. After a lot of talk in the offseason about some of the upgrades, the Blue Devils are one of the more disappointing teams in the country but get the benefit of not having that hanging over their season given that they play in the one league where they have plenty of company on that front.
Out: Cal, Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, NC State, North Carolina, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big 12
Alive: BYU, Cincinnati, Texas Tech, Utah
The upcoming BYU at Cincinnati game is a massive one for a host of tiebreakers that will determine who goes to the Big 12 title game. Texas Tech has all but booked its first trip to the game but still needs to leave no doubt in the mind of the committee if it wants to host a first-round CFP game.
Eliminated: None
Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
Big Ten
Locks: Ohio State, Indiana
Welcome to a pair of our first locks in the CFP field. Even if the Buckeyes were to somehow lose again at Michigan, they would still be safely in the field based on what we’ve seen so far this season—and the same is true of the Hoosiers. Curt Cignetti’s team gets an off week before heading to rival Purdue so would hit Selection Sunday at no worse than 11–1, also owning a tiebreaker over Oregon to make it to Indianapolis for the Big Ten title game. You probably could have predicted the Buckeyes to make back-to-back playoff trips in the 12-team era but nobody had Indiana coming along for the same ride.
Alive: Oregon, Michigan, USC
Saturday is shaping up to be a quasi-elimination game for the Ducks and Trojans at Autzen Stadium and if the visitors win, it’s not a lock that the Big Ten even gets three teams into the playoff. As for the Wolverines, they improbably survived that game against Northwestern despite a handful of turnovers. They haven’t looked like a playoff team much at all this season, but that doesn’t rule them out completely right now based on what’s ahead on the schedule.
Eliminated: None
Out: Minnesota, Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Washington, Wisconsin
SEC
Locks: Georgia, Mississippi, Texas A&M
The only question left with the Bulldogs, Aggies and Rebels right now is seeding. Kirby Smart’s team wrapped up SEC play last Saturday and can survive a loss to Georgia Tech to make the field. The bigger question might be if they wind up as a team that gets a bye and quarterfinal berth or if they get a home CFP game against the Group of 5 team—perhaps a better path after struggling in that same spot last year. As for the Rebels, not even an inexplicable loss in the Egg Bowl could keep them out now thanks to the head-to-head win over Oklahoma and a blowout of Tulane that could wind up being another team in the bracket. Finally, the Aggies losing to Texas on Black Friday would prevent only a first trip to Atlanta for the SEC title game and not a spot in the playoff. That would not have been the case had they actually lost to South Carolina, but the biggest comeback in school history doubled as locking up their postseason place.
Alive: Alabama, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt
The Crimson Tide still are in line to make it to the SEC championship and even a 10–3 mark will be unlikely to keep them out of the bracket completely. That’s the result of how many Top 25 wins they’ve already racked up and the committee’s generally favorable view of the team when they’re not turning it over three times. They’re not a lock however, much like the Sooners who just beat them. Bama might not have to sweat out the final weekend if it can get some help from the ACC and Big 12 to ensure they are single-bid leagues. Meanwhile, Vandy remains lurking as one of the first teams out and could really use a shocking Notre Dame loss down the stretch.
Eliminated: Texas
The preseason No. 1 team won’t be making the playoff, much less reaching a semifinal for a third straight year. Were they overhyped? Of course. But this is also a team with the talent to win some of the big games it lost—but hasn’t found ways of doing all the little things it did in previous seasons. The more interesting question facing the burnt orange this offseason is what will they do about it because a lot of key leaders won’t be back in 2026. That makes this even more of Arch Manning’s team moving forward, for better and for worse.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee
Independent
Alive: Notre Dame
The Irish can pretty much pencil in their 10–2 season given that the upcoming ACC opponents are middling at best and well down the standings. After trouncing Pitt though, Marcus Freeman’s team needs to worry about what happens behind them in the rankings and not what is transpiring ahead of them in the bracket. That’s why they’re not quite a lock just yet because it’s possible Miami inches close enough to make their head-to-head result matter come Selection Sunday or a fairly thin résumé winds up compared side-by-side with a few 10–2 SEC teams that calls into question where the Irish are in the pecking order. You still have to feel good about Notre Dame’s chances if you’re in South Bend, but there are plenty of scenarios where they get bumped at the last minute.
Out: UConn
American
Alive: Navy, Tulane, North Texas, East Carolina
With all due respect to all of the other conference races, they don’t hold a candle to the American in terms of being fun. Every week it seems like a different team is the newly designated favorite to win it all and nab the Group of 5 playoff spot, which could come down to which teams the committee and the computers favor to make it to the conference title game.
Eliminated: South Florida
The Bulls did everything asked of them in the nonconference. They won in the Swamp. They kneecapped Boise State (and by extension much of the Mountain West). They topped North Texas on the road in one of the rare meetings against a fellow contender. But being unable to slow down Navy on Saturday ends their hopes at becoming a conference champion and therefore making the playoff. Oh, and it might speed up the hiring of their head coach elsewhere as soon as the regular season is over. That’s quite the double whammy in one weekend.
Out: Army, Charlotte, FAU, Memphis, Rice, Temple, Tulsa, UAB, UTSA
Conference USA
Out: Kennesaw State, Jacksonville State, Western Kentucky, Missouri State, Liberty, Delaware, Louisiana Tech, Florida International, UTEP, New Mexico State, MTSU, Sam Houston
MAC
Out: Miami (Ohio), Central Michigan, Ohio, Buffalo, Western Michigan, Toledo, Ball State, Kent State, Akron, Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, Eastern Michigan, UMass
Mountain West
Out: Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Hawai’i, Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State, San Jose State, UNLV, Utah State, Wyoming
Pac-12
Out: Washington State, Oregon State
Sun Belt
Alive: James Madison
The Dukes did their part by trouncing a fellow Sun Belt team and keep hanging around the CFP discussion while the American eats its own. There’s a decent chance they would be the only one-loss Group of 5 champion if they win out, though getting beat by just a few points by Louisville doesn’t quite look as good as it once did.
Out: Coastal Carolina, Marshall, Old Dominion, App State, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Southern Miss, Troy, Arkansas State, UL Monroe, Louisiana, South Alabama, Texas State
More College Football from Sports Illustrated
Listen to SI’s new college sports podcast, Others Receiving Votes, below or on Apple and Spotify. Watch the show on SI’s YouTube channel.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as College Football Playoff Eliminator: Which Teams Are Out or Alive for a Berth After Week 12.
