Which top teams have the best chance of getting into the College Football Playoff after Week 9?
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As always, here’s how we know the unwritten College Football Playoff rules (sort of) work …
1) Win your Power Five championship and finish 13-0, and you’re in. There can only be four of those this year with all of the Pac-12 teams with at least one loss. There’s no argument … go 13-0 with a P5 title, and you’re in …
2) Win your Power Five championship and finish 12-1, and you’re probably in. Ohio State was the first to miss out last year after doing this, partly because it got blown away by Purdue, and totally because Notre Dame was 12-0.
3) Go 11-1 in the SEC or Big Ten with that one loss coming to a conference champion who’s off to the College Football Playoff. That’s how Alabama got in on the way to a title in 2017. Or, be dominant and have one loss that was by crazy circumstances, like Ohio State did to get in despite losing to Penn State in 2016.
It’s remotely possible that a two-loss Michigan or Auburn might be able to get there with a whole lot of luck, but nah … it’s not going to happen.
This is done on projections and NOT how this would be at the immediate moment. Also, this isn’t a ranking of how good the teams appear to be.
Knocked Out: Auburn, Notre Dame, Wisconsin
13. Wake Forest Demon Deacons 6-1 (ACC)
Last Week: 12
Remaining Schedule: NC State, at Virginia Tech, at Clemson, Duke, at Syracuse
To get to the College Football Playoff, Wake Forest needs to 1) win at Clemson, 2) win the other four games, 3) beat Clemson again, and 4) get some help with both the Pac-12 and Big 12 champs needing two losses.
12. Baylor Bears 7-0 (Big 12)
Last Week: 15
Remaining Schedule: West Virginia, at TCU, Oklahoma, Texas, at Kansas
There’s no strong non-conference win – UTSA is the best of the three – and the Big 12 is just okay. 13-0 absolutely gets Baylor into the CFP, but this year, 12-1 with a Big 12 title probably doesn’t get it done. Going to TCU is a problem, and dealing with Oklahoma and Texas – even at home – won’t be a breeze.
11. Minnesota Golden Gophers 8-0 (Big Ten)
Last Week: 14
Remaining Schedule: Penn State, at Iowa, at Northwestern, Wisconsin
It’s going to be fun. Even if the Golden Gophers lose to Penn State next week, they can still get to the Big Ten Championship, go 12-1, and go to the CFP … easy peasy. It’s more likely that they drop at least two of the final three games, and even if they don’t, good luck against – most likely – Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. Even if the CFP isn’t realistically a play, the Rose Bowl is if they can get by the Nittany Lions.
10. Georgia Bulldogs 6-1 (SEC)
Last Week: 11
Remaining Schedule: Florida, Missouri, at Auburn, Texas A&M, at Georgia Tech
It’s all still right there for the taking. The South Carolina loss looks worse and worse, but the deal is still the same – win out, win the SEC Championship, go 12-1, and in. To do that, though, the team that’s been struggling to find its O has to beat both Florida and win at Auburn – and not lose to anyone else. AND THEN, if everything goes right, beat either Alabama or LSU.
9. Utah Utes 7-1 (Pac-12)
Last Week: 9
Remaining Schedule: at Washington, UCLA, at Arizona, Colorado
The Oklahoma loss to Kansas State changes everything. If the Utes can win out, the loss at USC early on hurts, but isn’t quite as bad. Considering the Pac-12 overall is at least even with the Big 12, if not better, going to 12-1 puts the Utes right on the doorstep.
8. Penn State Nittany Lions 8-0 (Big Ten)
Last Week: 8
Remaining Schedule: at Minnesota, Indiana, at Ohio State, Rutgers
How many more impressive wins does the team need to come up with to start getting some love? The win against Michigan looks stronger now, the blowout win in the rain at Michigan State was great, and beating Pitt and winning at Iowa are solid. Winning at Minnesota isn’t that hard for an elite team, but it’ll be given the credit for being a huge win if the Nittany Lions can do it, and if they win in a blowout, this gets really interesting – there might be a chance to get in even at 11-1 with a close loss at Ohio State.
7. Florida Gators 7-1 (SEC)
Last Week: 7
Remaining Schedule: Georgia, Vanderbilt, at Missouri, Florida State
Considering how Missouri has totally gone off the rails, all of a sudden, this is looking doable. Beat Georgia in Jacksonville, and the Gators almost certainly have a one shot deal against Bama or LSU in the SEC Championship to go to the CFP.
6. Oregon Ducks 7-1 (Pac-12)
Last Week: 6
Remaining Schedule: at USC, Arizona, at Arizona State, Oregon State
The Ducks are looking way too shaky. They needed a desperation drive and last second kick to get by a whatever Wazzu team at home, and they still have to deal with USC and Arizona State on the road, and likely Utah in the Pac-12 Championship if everything else goes right. There’s an opening, though, after the Oklahoma loss to Kansas State.
NEXT: Top Five Path Teams In The Playoff Chase
5. Oklahoma Sooners 7-1 (Big 12)
Last Week: 2
Remaining Schedule: Iowa State, at Baylor, TCU, at Oklahoma State
There’s a big problem. Now, because the Sooners have only beaten one team – Texas – that will likely go bowling, and the rest of the schedule doesn’t look that great even with a date at Baylor, it’s going to be a tough sell to get past a 12-1 Pac-12 champion or an 11-1 Bama-LSU loser. Even so, the hope has to be that history holds. With no unbeaten Notre Dame aberration like last year, 12-1 with a Power Five championship should get the Sooners in.
4. Alabama Crimson Tide 7-0 (SEC)
Last Week: 3
Remaining Schedule: LSU, at Mississippi State, Western Carolina, at Auburn
The Auburn game isn’t a given, but beat LSU, and Alabama will likely be in the same spot Ohio State is with Michigan – the big rivalry game won’t really matter, to a point. For now, the hope is for Tua Tagovailoa’s ankle to get healthy in a hurry and to get by LSU, but throw in a possible SEC Championship appearance, and the schedule is backloaded in a big, big way.
3. Ohio State Buckeyes 8-0 (Big Ten)
Last Week: 5
Remaining Schedule: Maryland, at Rutgers, Penn State, at Michigan
Here’s the punchline … the Michigan game probably won’t matter.
If Ohio State beats Maryland and wins at Rutgers, all it needs to do is beat Penn State, and it’s in the Big Ten Championship. If this team goes 12-1 and wins the B1G, it’s in the CFP no matter what happens against the Wolverines. Win out and go 13-0, and OSU is no worse than the No. 2 seed.
2. LSU Tigers 8-0 (SEC)
Last Week: 4
Remaining Schedule: at Alabama, at Ole Miss, Arkansas, Texas A&M
Just don’t get blasted by Alabama.
The Tigers got by the other Tigers with last week’s win over Auburn, and now, if they can just make it really, really close against the Tide on the road, they might still get in on a four-best-team belief. HOWEVER, that’s if Tua Tagovailoa plays. Beat Bama, and it still might be in at 12-1 if it loses to Florida or Georgia in the SEC Championship.
1. Clemson Tigers 8-0 (ACC)
Last Week: 1
Remaining Schedule: at Wofford, at NC State, Wake Forest, at South Carolina
Clemson will get to just go through the motions in a slew of light scrimmages on the way to the College Football Playoff. It’s going to be a 20+ point favorite against everyone the rest of the way, and that includes whatever survives out of the muck from the Coastal.
There’s a flip side, though. Clemson likely can’t survive a loss. The schedule is so mediocre that one defeat probably knocks it out of the CFP, even if it goes 12-1 with an ACC title.
