Who’s still alive in the chase to get into the 2020-2021 College Football Playoff?
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With the Big Ten and Mountain West now a part of the mix, this gets even more interesting.
As always, the ground rules for this are 1) win your Power Five championship and go unbeaten and you’re almost certainly in, or 2) finish with one loss and a Power Five championship and you’re probably in, or 3) lose one game in the SEC, Big Ten or ACC – at least this year, at the moment – the Big 12 – and as long as that’s it, you have a shot.
Everyone else? This year, probably not, so …
– Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– One-loss teams still alive
– Unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
Teams that haven’t played yet, but really don’t have a shot
All of these teams will be in the hunt for an automatic New Year’s Six bowl slot if one goes unbeaten, but it’ll take something historically weird to get any sort of consideration for the College Football Playoff.
MAC
Akron, Ball State, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Kent State, Miami University, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Toledo, Western Michigan
Mountain West
Colorado State, New Mexico
Teams that haven’t played yet, but have a chance
Some might be longer shots than others, and some might be totally unrealistic, but if any of these teams go unbeaten with a conference championship, they’re almost certainly going to be in.
Pac-12
Arizona, Arizona State, Cal, Colorado, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Utah, Washington, Washington State
– Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– One-loss teams still alive
– Unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam …
Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam …
These teams are either Power Five programs with multiple losses, or have one loss from a Group of Five conference.
For all intents and purposes, these 69 teams are out of the College Football Playoff hunt.
ACC
Boston College, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, NC State, Pitt, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
American Athletic Conference
East Carolina, Houston, Memphis, Navy, SMU, Tulane, Temple, Tulsa, UCF, USF,
Big 12
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech, West Virginia,
Conference USA
Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, FIU, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, North Texas, Rice, Southern Miss, UAB, UTEP, UTSA, WKU, (Old Dominion not playing in 2020)
Independents
Army, (New Mexico State, UConn not playing in 2020. UMass
Mountain West
Air Force, Fresno State, UNLV, Utah State, Wyoming
SEC
Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Sun Belt
Appalachian State, Arkansas State, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Louisiana, South Alabama, Texas State, Troy, ULM
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– One-loss teams still alive
– Unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: Group of Five hopefuls
Group of Five hopefuls
It’ll take something miraculous to happen for any of these teams to get within sniffing distance of the College Football Playoff. The only possible way it works for any of them is to 1) go unbeaten, 2) be dominant doing it, and 3) hope for chaos in the Power Five championship games.
Ranking the Group of Five programs still alive (sort of), but more realistically, the teams in the hunt for the Group of Five’s New Year’s Six bowl slot are …
American Athletic Conference
Ranked in order of most possible to least
1. Cincinnati
Alive for the New Year’s Six Bowl
2. Memphis
3. Houston
4. SMU
5. Tulsa
Conference USA
1. Marshall
Alive for the New Year’s Six Bowl
2. UAB
3. Florida Atlantic
4. Rice
Independents
1. BYU
2. Liberty
Mountain West
1. Boise State
2. San Diego State
3. Nevada
4. Hawaii
5. San Jose State
6. Colorado State
7. New Mexico
Alive for the New Year’s Six Bowl
8. Air Force
9. Fresno State
10. UNLV
11. Utah State
12. Wyoming
Sun Belt
1. Coastal Carolina
Alive for the New Year’s Six Bowl
2. Appalachian State
3. Louisiana
– Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam
– One-loss teams still alive
– Unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: One Loss Teams That Have a Shot … Technically
One loss teams that have a shot … technically
Run the table and finish the season with one loss and a conference championship, and that should get the job done. Lose again, and unless there’s a miracle, it’s all over. If any of these teams win out and take a Power Five championship, it’ll be almost a near-certain lock to get in.
Florida (2-1)
When it’ll all be over: The Gators have been off, and now they get a dangerous home date against Missouri before getting Georgia. It’s not an easy remaining run, but there’s no excuse to not run the table if they can beat the Bulldogs.
Georgia (3-1)
When it’ll all be over: How quickly are the Bulldogs past the Alabama loss? At Kentucky, Florida, at Missouri – it’s an interesting run away from home for the next few weeks.
Illinois (0-1)
When it’ll all be over: If not against Purdue this week, then against Minnesota the week after.
Iowa (0-1)
When it’ll all be over: It could be against Northwestern this week if the Hawkeyes aren’t a whole lot sharper. If they get by that, at Minnesota, at Penn State or Wisconsin will end it.
Kansas State (4-1)
When it’ll all be over: The Wildcats might just keep on winning, but at West Virginia this week or the home game against Oklahoma State the following week should end this.
Maryland (0-1)
When it’ll all be over: The second the bus pulls up to the stadium against Minnesota this week.
Miami (5-1)
When it’ll all be over: With the way the team is playing, this could be over at anytime. At NC State, at Virginia Tech, or even at Wake Forest or at home against North Carolina – no way the Canes are getting through this clean.
Michigan State (0-1)
When it’ll all be over: As if losing to Rutgers wasn’t bad enough … at Michigan this week will put a stop to any wild dreams.
Minnesota (0-1)
When it’ll all be over: It might be a bit with Maryland and Illinois next on the road before hosting Iowa and Purdue. At Wisconsin should be the end, but win that, and Northwestern and at Nebraska are gettable.
Nebraska (0-1)
When it’ll all be over: It should be against Wisconsin this week, but that’s iffy depending on the Graham Mertz situation. At Northwestern or Penn State will end the CFP dream before late November.
North Carolina (4-1)
When it’ll all be over: Can the Tar Heels be just flaky enough to lose at Virginia or Duke? Not likely, but Wake Forest, Notre Dame, and at Miami should bring at least one loss.
Penn State (0-1)
When it’ll all be over: A whole lot sooner than anyone might have thought with Ohio State coming to town this week. Pull off the upset, though, and a Thanksgiving weekend trip to Michigan is the only other truly dangerous game.
Texas A&M (4-1)
When it’ll all be over: The rest of the schedule isn’t all that bad, but going to South Carolina, Tennessee and Auburn are problems, and beating Ole Miss and LSU at home isn’t easy. There’s a loss coming at some point.
– Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– Unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders …
The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
Going unbeaten with a Power Five championship will all but guarantee an invite into the College Football Playoff. The Big Ten and Pac-12 will be added when they start playing.
Alabama (5-0)
Will it happen? With the way this offense is working, nothing is slowing down. Even one loss is fine – the Crimson Tide aren’t going to lose twice before getting to the SEC Championship.
Clemson (6-0)
Will it happen? Can the team stay interested? It’s so good that it just has to avoid a few brain cramps, but just one is fine. It’ll win four of its next five games at the very least and be in the ACC Championship game once again with the CFP spot there for the taking.
Indiana (1-0)
Will it happen? Nah, but the team will still be pesky. The Hoosiers have to go on the road to Ohio State and Wisconsin and play Michigan. It won’t happen, but it’ll be a fun ride.
Michigan (1-0)
Will it happen? All of a sudden, Wisconsin might be a whole lot more beatable depending on its quarterback situation and the Penn State game is at home. Get to the Ohio State game unbeaten, and this year, 7-1 might actually get the team close to the pin.
Northwestern (1-0)
Will it happen? Who doesn’t beat Maryland 43-3? The Wildcats will be far better this year, and they don’t get Michigan, Penn State or Ohio State
Notre Dame (5-0)
Will it happen? At the very least, it’s putting itself in the position to do something big. There won’t be any problems against Georgia Tech, and then it’s on with Clemson coming to town. It’s still not easy after that with three road games in the final four.
Ohio State (1-0)
Will it happen? As long as Justin Fields stays healthy, the season will be a failure if the Buckeyes don’t win the national championship. That’s where the bar is set after last year, and the biggest remaining step until the regular season final against Michigan is next week at Penn State.
Oklahoma State (4-0)
Will it happen? The Cowboys got past one big hurdle with the Iowa State win, but Texas is up next and four of the last five games are on the road, so … no.
Purdue (1-0)
Will it happen? Three road games in the next four should end the dream, but there’s no Ohio State, Michigan or Penn State to deal with from the East. Beat Wisconsin on the road and the rest of the slate just isn’t that bad … but no.
Rutgers (1-0)
Will it happen? Only if there’s a right and just god that wants to give us the greatest sports season in the history of mankind.
Wisconsin (1-0)
Will it happen? It all depends on whether or not the Badgers have a healthy quarterback. They should be able to get through most of the schedule – they’ll be favored in every game buy the road trip to Michigan – but can they get to the Big Ten Championship at 7-1? Yeah, and then comes the hard stop against – likely – Ohio State.
