Who’s still alive in the chase to get into the 2020-2021 College Football Playoff?
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Starting with the unwritten rules of the College Football Playoff …
1) Win your Power Five championship and finish unbeaten, and you’re in. And yes, this will go for the Big Ten. The Pac-12 is a little iffy, though, with a six-game regular season, Go 7-0 with a conference title, and the Pac-12 will at least be on the doorstep.
2) Win your Power Five championship and finish with one loss, and in normal times you’re close to being a mortal lock. This year, the SEC champ is in with one loss no matter what, but it’s not so sure a thing across the board. This will be addressed in a moment.
3) Lose one game in the SEC, Big Ten, or this year, the ACC, with that one loss coming to a conference champion who’s off to the College Football Playoff. That’s how Alabama got in on the way to a title in 2017. Or, be dominant and have one loss that was by crazy circumstances, like Ohio State in 2016 despite losing to Penn State.
4) Win your Group of Five conference championship, go unbeaten, and pray for a whole lot of luck. We have yet to have a season with a slew of two-loss Power Five champions, but that’s what it would take for an unbeaten Group of Fiver to get in.
– Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– One-loss teams still alive
– Unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
Teams that haven’t played yet, but really don’t have a shot
All of these teams will be in the hunt for an automatic New Year’s Six bowl slot if one goes unbeaten, but it’ll take something historically weird to get any sort of consideration for the College Football Playoff.
Conference USA
Rice
MAC
Akron, Ball State, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Kent State, Miami University, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Toledo, Western Michigan
Mountain West
Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State, San Jose State, UNLV, Utah State, Wyoming
Teams that haven’t played yet, but have a chance
Some might be longer shots than others, and some might be totally unrealistic, but if any of these teams go unbeaten with a conference championship, they’re almost certainly going to be in.
Big Ten
Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, Wisconsin
Pac-12
Arizona, Arizona State, Cal, Colorado, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Utah, Washington, Washington State
– Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– One-loss teams still alive
– Unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam …
Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam …
These teams are either Power Five programs with multiple losses, or have one loss from a Group of Five conference.
For all intents and purposes, these 56 teams are out of the College Football Playoff hunt.
ACC
Boston College, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Pitt, Syracuse, Virginia, Wake Forest
American Athletic Conference
East Carolina, Houston, Memphis, Navy, Tulane, Temple, Tulsa, UCF, USF,
Big 12
Kansas, Oklahoma, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech
Conference USA
Charlotte, FIU, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, North Texas, Southern Miss, UAB, UTEP, UTSA, WKU, (Old Dominion not playing in 2020)
Independents
Army, (New Mexico State, UConn not playing in 2020. UMass
SEC
Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Sun Belt
Appalachian State, Arkansas State, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Louisiana, South Alabama, Texas State, Troy, ULM
– Teams that haven’t played yet, but …
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– One-loss teams still alive
– Unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: Group of Five hopefuls
Group of Five hopefuls
It’ll take something miraculous to happen for any of these teams to get within sniffing distance of the College Football Playoff. The only possible way it works for any of them is to 1) go unbeaten, 2) be dominant doing it, and 3) hope for chaos in the Power Five championship games.
There can’t be four other options from the Power Five leagues.
Ranking the Group of Five programs still alive (sort of), but more realistically, the teams in the hunt for the Group of Five’s New Year’s Six bowl slot are …
American Athletic Conference
Ranked in order of most possible to least
1. Cincinnati
2. SMU
Alive for the New Year’s Six Bowl
3. Memphis
4. Houston
5. Temple
6. Tulsa
Conference USA
1. Marshall
2. Florida Atlantic
3. Rice
Alive for the New Year’s Six Bowl
4. UAB
Independents
1. BYU
2. Liberty
Mountain West
1. Air Force
Sun Belt
1. Coastal Carolina
Alive for the New Year’s Six Bowl
2. Appalachian State
3. Louisiana
4. Georgia Southern
– Teams that haven’t played yet, but …
– Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam
– One-loss teams still alive
– Unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: One Loss Teams That Have a Shot … Technically
One loss teams that have a shot … technically
Run the table and finish the season with one loss and a conference championship, and that should get the job done. Lose again, and unless there’s a miracle, it’s all over. If any of these teams win out and take a Power Five championship, it’ll be almost a near-certain lock to get in.
Baylor (1-1)
When it’ll all be over: When it starts playing again, it’ll lose to either Oklahoma State this week or at Texas to follow.
Florida (2-1)
When it’ll all be over: It might be a while if it can beat Georgia in Jacksonville on November 7th. Arkansas isn’t a layup, but it’s at home, and the Tennessee game is on the road, but it’s all about the not-supposed-to-call-it-the Cocktail Party.
Georgia (3-1)
When it’ll all be over: Like Florida, it’s all about the November 7th game. aAs long as there’s not a miss at Kentucky on Halloween or at South Carolina on Thanksgiving weekend, everything will be okay.
Iowa State (3-1)
When it’ll all be over: Either at Oklahoma State on October 24th, against Kansas State on November 21st. If it’s still alive after that, there’s still at Texas and West Virginia to deal with.
Kansas State (3-1)
When it’ll all be over: If the team can get past the loss of starting QB Skylar Thompson, the Wildcats might be around for a while. However, going to West Virginia and Iowa State before Thanksgiving will be tough.
Miami (4-1)
When it’ll all be over: Either at NC State or at Virginia Tech in the first few weeks of November. Get past those two, though, and it might be smooth sailing until the regular season finale against North Carolina.
North Carolina (3-1)
When it’ll all be over: Well, if you can lose to Florida State anything is possible. However, if the Tar Heels play up to their talent level, they should get to the Notre Dame game over Thanksgiving weekend still alive.
NC State (4-1)
When it’ll all be over: QB Devin Leary is out with a broken leg, so this week at North Carolina is a problem. It’ll lose either this week or next week against Miami. However, beat those two, and the Pack probably won’t lose the rest of the way.
Texas A&M (4-1)
When it’ll all be over: The Aggies play a slew of 50/50 SEC games with road trips to South Carolina and Tennessee, but they should be favored in every game the rest of the way.
Virginia Tech (3-1)
When it’ll all be over: Look out. The team is starting to hum, the offense is great, and considering Miami and Clemson come to Blacksburg … nah. It won’t happen – it’ll lose one of those two – but it’ll come close.
West Virginia (3-1)
When it’ll all be over: If the Mountaineers can get by Texas Tech on the road, it’ll be over either at home against Kansas State or at Texas.
– Teams that haven’t played yet, but …
– Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– Unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders …
The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
Going unbeaten with a Power Five championship will all but guarantee an invite into the College Football Playoff. The Big Ten and Pac-12 will be added when they start playing.
Alabama (4-0)
Will it happen? Yup. All of a sudden, the rest of the schedule looks more than manageable after rolling by Georgia. The Tide can lose once before the SEC Championship and still be more than fine.
Clemson (5-0)
Will it happen? Has this team given you any indication that it’s going to slip anywhere in any way? Maybe there could be a problem at Notre Dame, and there will be issues in the regular season finale at Virginia Tech, but the ACC Championship appearance is a lock, and go from there.
Notre Dame (4-0)
Will it happen? Not a chance if the team plays like it did against Louisville. Going to Pitt will be a problem, and Clemson and at North Carolina are scary. However, if the team can play up to its capabilities, it can lose once, get to the ACC Championship, and have a shot to get in.
Oklahoma State (3-0)
Will it happen? No chance. It’ll lose either at Oklahoma, to Texas, or to Iowa State, or at Kansas State … there are too many landmines and will probably lose twice.
– Teams that haven’t played yet, but …
– Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– One-loss teams still alive
