Who’s still alive in the chase to get into the 2020-2021 College Football Playoff?
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As always, the unwritten rules of the College Football Playoff have to be taken into account …
1) Win your Power Five championship and finish unbeaten, and you’re in. And yes, this will go for the Big Ten. The Pac-12 is a little iffy, though, with a six-game regular season, Go 7-0 with a conference title, and the Pac-12 will at least be on the doorstep.
2) Win your Power Five championship and finish with one loss, and in normal times you’re close to being a mortal lock. This year, the SEC champ is in with one loss no matter what, but it’s not so sure a thing across the board. This will be addressed in a moment.
3) Lose one game in the SEC, Big Ten, or this year, the ACC, with that one loss coming to a conference champion who’s off to the College Football Playoff. That’s how Alabama got in on the way to a title in 2017. Or, be dominant and have one loss that was by crazy circumstances, like Ohio State in 2016 despite losing to Penn State.
4) Win your Group of Five conference championship, go unbeaten, and pray for a whole lot of luck. We have yet to have a season with a slew of two-loss Power Five champions, but that’s what it would take for an unbeaten Group of Fiver to get in.
With all of that in mind, this is broken down into five categories.
– Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– One-loss teams still alive
– Unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
Teams that haven’t played yet, but really don’t have a shot
All of these teams will be in the hunt for an automatic New Year’s Six bowl slot if one goes unbeaten, but it’ll take something historically weird to get any sort of consideration for the College Football Playoff.
Conference USA
Rice
Independents
UMass
MAC
Akron, Ball State, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Kent State, Miami University, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Toledo, Western Michigan
Mountain West
Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State, San Jose State, UNLV, Utah State, Wyoming
Teams that haven’t played yet, but have a chance
Some might be longer shots than others, and some might be totally unrealistic, but if any of these teams go unbeaten with a conference championship, they’re almost certainly going to be in.
Big Ten
Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, Wisconsin
Pac-12
Arizona, Arizona State, Cal, Colorado, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Utah, Washington, Washington State
– Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– One-loss teams still alive
– Unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam …
Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam …
These teams are either Power Five programs with multiple losses, or have one loss from a Group of Five conference.
For all intents and purposes, these 51 teams are out of the College Football Playoff hunt.
ACC
Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Pitt, Syracuse, Virginia, Wake Forest
American Athletic Conference
East Carolina, Memphis, Navy, Tulane, Temple, Tulsa, UCF, USF,
Big 12
Kansas, Oklahoma, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech
Conference USA
Charlotte, FIU, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, North Texas, Southern Miss, UAB, UTEP, UTSA, WKU, (Old Dominion not playing in 2020)
Independents
Army, (New Mexico State, UConn not playing in 2020. UMass to play, but a limited schedule)
SEC
Arkansas, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Vanderbilt
Sun Belt
Appalachian State, Arkansas State, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, South Alabama, Texas State, Troy, ULM
– Teams that haven’t played yet, but …
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– One-loss teams still alive
– Unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: Group of Five hopefuls
Group of Five hopefuls
It’ll take something miraculous to happen for any of these teams to get within sniffing distance of the College Football Playoff. The only possible way it works for any of them is to 1) go unbeaten, 2) be dominant doing it, and 3) hope for chaos in the Power Five championship games.
There can’t be four other options from the Power Five leagues.
Ranking the Group of Five programs still alive (sort of), but more realistically, the teams in the hunt for the Group of Five’s New Year’s Six bowl slot are …
American Athletic Conference
Ranked in order of most possible to least
1. Cincinnati
2. Houston
3. SMU
Conference USA
1. Marshall
2. Florida Atlantic
5. Rice
Independents
1. BYU
2. Liberty
Mountain West
1. Air Force
Sun Belt
1. Louisiana
2. Coastal Carolina
– Teams that haven’t played yet, but …
– Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam
– One-loss teams still alive
– Unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: One Loss Teams That Have a Shot … Technically
One loss teams that have a shot … technically
Run the table and finish the season with one loss and a conference championship, and that should get the job done. Lose again, and unless there’s a miracle, it’s all over. If any of these teams win out and take a Power Five championship, it’ll be almost a near-certain lock to get in.
Auburn (2-1)
When it’ll all be over: It should’ve happened this week against Arkansas, but at Ole Miss on October 24th is the most likely bump, or at home against LSU before dealing with the finishing kick of Tennessee, at Alabama, Texas A&M.
Baylor (1-1)
When it’ll all be over: Soon. Three of the next four games are on the road starting at Texas this week.
Boston College (3-1)
When it’ll all be over: At Virginia Tech this week, or at Clemson on Halloween.
Florida (2-1)
When it’ll all be over: It could, but it likely has to get to the SEC Championship unbeaten to make sure. At Texas A&M, MSU, and Georgia – those are three of the next four games. Get by that, and the sailing is relatively smooth.
Iowa State (3-1)
When it’ll all be over: It might be a bit if the Cyclones win at Oklahoma State in two weeks. Either in Stillwater or in late November at Texas.
Kansas State (3-1)
When it’ll all be over: If everyone is healthy, it might not be for a while, if at all. Either against Oklahoma State on November 7 or at Iowa State on November 21 are the most likely options.
Miami (3-1)
When it’ll all be over: It’s going to take an upset, but at NC State on November 6 or at Virginia Tech on the 14th are the likely misfires, if any.
NC State (3-1)
When it’ll all be over: At North Carolina on the 24th, or Miami the week after. However, win those two, and that second loss might not come.
Tennessee (2-1)
When it’ll all be over: If it’s not against Kentucky this week, it should be against Alabama the week after. However, the tough road games against Arkansas – yeah, Arkansas – and Auburn aren’t until November.
Texas A&M (3-1)
When it’ll all be over: After getting by Florida, the schedule isn’t that bad even with three road games in the next four. At Tennessee on November 14th, LSU on November 28th, or at Auburn on December 5th might be it.
Virginia Tech (2-1)
When it’ll all be over: If this team can ever get healthy and field a full squad, it’ll be deadly. It has to get by Boston College this week, but it gets Miami, Clemson and Virginia at home. It’ll lose one more game along the way, though.
West Virginia (2-1)
When it’ll all be over: It might not be for a bit with Kansas and at Texas Tech up next. Kansas State and at Texas follow.
– Teams that haven’t played yet, but …
– Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders …
The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
Going unbeaten with a Power Five championship will all but guarantee an invite into the College Football Playoff. The Big Ten and Pac-12 will be added when they start playing.
Alabama (3-0)
Will it happen? It’s not going to be easy if the defense plays like it did against Ole Miss. The offense is unstoppable, though. The Tide should be able to afford one loss – like to Georgia this week – but they’re not losing twice.
Clemson (4-0)
Will it happen? Well that was certainly easy against Miami. It’s going to take a minor miracle for anyone other than Notre Dame on November 7th in South Bend to trip up the Tigers. However, watch out for the regular season finale at Virginia Tech.
Georgia (3-0)
Will it happen? As long as it splits the games against Alabama this week and against Florida on November 7th – both away from home – then yes, it should get it. Of course, it’ll need another Gator loss if the Bulldogs drop the date in Jacksonville, but if this offense can improve, they’re in.
North Carolina (3-0)
Will it happen? The team isn’t good enough to get through the slate clean, but there’s no Clemson and Miami and Notre Dame don’t come up until Thanksgiving. At the very least, the Tar Heels can get close.
Notre Dame (3-0)
Will it happen? There are a whole slew of flaws in a team that didn’t put together a complete effort in two of the first three games, but split the dates with Clemson and North Carolina, and the one-loss Irish will be in the ACC Championship.
Oklahoma State (3-0)
Will it happen? Nope. It might be the only unbeaten Big 12 team left standing, but don’t be fooled by the 47-7 win over Kansas – that’s Kansas. Iowa State, Texas, at Oklahoma and at TCU will be tough to get through without two losses.
– Teams that haven’t played yet, but …
– Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– One-loss teams still alive
