Who’s still alive in the chase to get into the 2019-2020 College Football Playoff?
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As always, here’s how we know the unwritten College Football Playoff rules work …
1) Win your Power Five championship and finish 13-0, and you’re in. There won’t be five of them, and if there are, the Pac-12 is almost certainly out. Or …
2) Win your Power Five championship and finish 12-1, and you’re probably in. Ohio State was the first to miss out last year after doing this, partly because it got blown away by Purdue, and totally because Notre Dame was 12-0.
3) Go 11-1 in the SEC or Big Ten with that one loss coming to a conference champion who’s off to the College Football Playoff. That’s how Alabama got in on the way to a title in 2017. Or, be dominant and have one loss that was by crazy circumstances, like Ohio State did to get in despite losing to Penn State in 2016.
4) Win your Group of Five conference championship at 13-0 and pray for a whole lot of luck. We have yet to have a slew of two-loss Power Five champions, but that’s what it would take for an unbeaten Group of Fiver to get in.
With all of that in mind, this is broken down into five categories.
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– One-loss teams still alive … technically
– The one-loss teams that actually have a shot
– The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
Finished. It’s over. Let’s go take a steam …
These teams are either Power Five programs with multiple losses – with one notable exception – or have one loss from a Group of Five conference.
These 101 teams are out of the national title hunt.
American Athletic Conference
Cincinnati, East Carolina, Houston, Navy, Temple, Tulsa, UConn, UCF, USF
ACC
Boston College, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Louisville, NC State, North Carolina, Pitt, Syracuse, Virginia Tech
Big 12
Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, TCU, Texas Tech, West Virginia
Big Ten
Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan State, Nebraska, Northwestern, Oklahoma State, Purdue, Rutgers
Conference USA
Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Louisiana Tech, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, North Texas, Old Dominion, Rice, Southern Miss, UAB, UTEP, UTSA, WKU
Independents
Army, BYU, Liberty, New Mexico State, UMass
MAC
Akron, Ball State, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Kent State, Miami University, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Toledo, Western Michigan
Mountain West
Air Force, Colorado State, Fresno State, Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State, San Jose State, UNLV, Utah State, Wyoming
Pac-12
Cal, Colorado, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington State
SEC
Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri (not eligible), Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Sun Belt
Arkansas State, Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Louisiana, South Alabama, Texas State, Troy, ULM
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– One-loss teams still alive … technically
– The one-loss teams that actually have a shot
– The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: Group of Five hopefuls
Group of Five hopefuls
It’ll take something miraculous to happen for any of these teams to get within sniffing distance of the College Football Playoff. The only possible way it works is to 1) go unbeaten, 2) be dominant doing it, and 3) hope for chaos in the Power Five championship games. There can’t be four other options from the Power Five leagues.
Ranking the only four Group of Five programs still alive (sort of), but mostly looking at them in the race for the New Year’s Six game – the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic …
4. Appalachian State
The win over North Carolina was solid, and there’s a shot to make some more noise with a trip to South Carolina coming up. Considering Memphis and SMU will play each other, ASU needs to go unbeaten and hope for a Boise State loss to likely have a real shot at playing in the Cotton Bowl.
3. Memphis
The Tigers could make a big push if they’re impressive against Tulane and SMU at home. Getting Cincinnati at the end of the regular season helps, but it’ll take a great run of blowout wins to push up to the head of the Group of Five teams for the New Year’s Six slot.
2. SMU
It’s a great story with the rise to bowl eligibility and with the win over TCU on the road. Beating Temple would be nice, taking down Memphis on the road would be great, and beating Tulane in the regular season finale would be strong, but the Mustangs need to roll to the American Athletic title and hope for Boise State to lose once.
1. Boise State
Florida State is getting better and better, but that’s still not going to be a strong enough win to get the Broncos in. However, beating a one-loss Hawaii team this week matters, and at least in terms of record, beating Wyoming and Utah State would be okay. If all the unbeaten Group of Five teams win out, the Broncos will end up getting the New Year’s Six bid.
– Finished. It’s over. The College Football Playoff dream is kaput
– One-loss teams still alive … technically
– The one-loss teams that actually have a shot
– The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: One Loss Teams That Have a Shot … Technically
One loss teams that have a shot … technically
Run the table and finish the season at 12-1 with a conference championship, and that should get the job done. Just a few teams fall into this category – along with one two-loss team – but …. no. It’s not going to happen for any of them.
Arizona
When it’ll all be over: Washington, at USC, at Stanford, at Oregon, Utah, at Arizona State. Khalil Tate might be playing well, but he can’t carry the Wildcats through all of that.
Arizona State
When it’ll all be over: At Utah in a few weeks should end it, but if the Sun Devils can pull that off, this may get fun. Oregon and Arizona have to come to Tempe.
Auburn
When it’ll all be over: The Tigers are good enough to beat any of the killers left on the schedule, but not all of them. At Florida, at LSU, Georgia, Alabama – it’s too tough to get through without two losses.
Iowa
When it’ll all be over: It might take a little bit with no Ohio State on the slate. The Hawkeyes could make it interesting if they hold up at home, starting with a win over Penn State this week. However, they’ll lose to the Nittany Lions or at Wisconsin.
Texas A&M
When it’ll all be over: This week against Alabama. However, if the Aggies shock the Tide, they’ll go into late November still alive. Win this week, go to Georgia and LSU and come up with wins, and they’ll absolutely get in if they win the SEC title. But no … that’s not happening.
– Finished. It’s over. The College Football Playoff dream is kaput
– One-loss teams still alive … technically
– The one-loss teams that actually have a shot
– The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: One loss teams that really do have a shot
One loss teams that really do have a shot
There was a misfire along the way early, but if any of these teams win out and go 12-1 with a Power Five conference championship … in. Done. No questions asked – okay, with the possible exception of the Pac-12 champ -unless there are four other unbeaten Power Five conference champs. That’s almost certainly not going to happen.
Michigan
Loss two will come: Either at Penn State in two weeks, or against Notre Dame, or against Michigan State, or against Ohio State. Watch out for the Wolverines to come up with at least a few wins, but they won’t win all of those.
Notre Dame
Loss two will come: Getting by Michigan will be tougher than it seems right now. Going to Stanford doesn’t look like a day at the beach, either. The Irish should be able to get a New Year’s Six game, but it’ll take a whole slew of Power Five championship disasters to get close to the CFP.
Oregon
Loss two will come: It probably won’t. It’s not going to be easy or smooth, but the Ducks will slip by Washington on the road and survive games against Arizona and Arizona State to get to the Pac-12 Championship. Is this team sharp enough to get though unscathed? Probably not, but at the very least it’s good enough to win the conference title and get to the Rose Bowl.
Loss two will come: Against Oklahoma either this week over in the Big 12 Championship. The defense just isn’t good enough to go unscathed the rest of the way.
Utah
Loss two will come: At Washington or at Arizona. It’s being assumed that Utah is out of the College Football Playoff picture thanks to the loss to USC, but 12-1 with a Pac-12 title will get them very, very close to the pin. They’ll lose another game, though.
Virginia
Loss two will come: Possibly the ACC Championship. The Cavaliers will win the Coastal title and end up in the Orange Bowl as the ACC’s No. 2 team, but don’t be stunned if they meet up with Clemson at 11-1.
– Finished. It’s over. The College Football Playoff dream is kaput
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– The one-loss teams that actually have a shot
– The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders …
The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
13-0 with a Power Five championship will all but guarantee an invite into the CFP. Remember, one loss isn’t necessarily a killer. 12-1 with a conference championship still likely gets it done.
Alabama
Will it happen? Uh huh. As long as the Tide don’t lose twice, they’ll be tough to keep out. LSU and at Auburn are the only real threats until the SEC Championship – if the Tide get there.
Baylor
Will it happen? No, but this might be more interesting than you think. It’s not a sexy team, but it’s got teeth. The defense might be the Big 12’s best, the offense isn’t screwing up, and it could get into mid-November still unbeaten with Oklahoma and Texas coming to Waco.
Clemson
Will it happen? Be very, very, very worried about a plucky Florida State team this week, a possible battle with Virginia in the ACC Championship, and …. whatever. Be very, very, very worried that Clemson is about to turn it on and beat everyone on its sad schedule by 30.
Florida
Will it happen? It’s still alive. Florida got past the Auburn round, and now they at least have to split between at LSU and against Georgia. However, be very, very worried about that late trip to Missouri.
Georgia
Will it happen? The Dawgs will be close. They’re not getting a whole lot of love because they’re not all that flashy, but they’re as rock-solid as they come. There might not be a lot of Oklahoma/Ohio State glitz, but they’ll get to the SEC Championship with a shot at the CFP.
LSU
Will it happen? This is going to be interesting. The offense is unstoppable right now, but Florida, Auburn, at Alabama – that’s way too tough a gauntlet to get through unscathed. The Tigers will lose once, and then we’ll all be wondering whether or not they’re among the four best teams. (Hint: they will be.)
Minnesota
Will it happen? No, but the Gophers will likely be 8-0 – Nebraska, at Rutgers and Maryland up next – when Penn State comes to town. They won’t get to the College Football Playoff, but don’t be shocked if they have a shot at the Big Ten Championship appearance when Wisconsin comes to town in the regular season finale.
Ohio State
Will it happen? The Buckeyes might lose once, but they’re not going to lose twice. The question is whether or not it comes in the Big Ten Championship.
Oklahoma
Will it happen? Yup … no one in the Big 12 can touch this team other than Texas, and it’ll take two wins to keep the Sooners out of the CFP. Iowa State, TCU and Oklahoma State will have a puncher’s chance, but OU will get to the Big 12 Championship at 11-1 at worst.
Penn State
Will it happen? Think of the Nittany Lions like Auburn – a great team that can beat anyone, but will end up getting pinched by a tough schedule. At Iowa, Michigan, at Michigan State, Minnesota, at Ohio State. That’s still to go.
Wake Forest
Will it happen? Nah, but it’ll be a fun ride. The Demon Deacons will either los to Florida State or at Clemson, or both. They’ll be pesky, and there’s still a great shot at being the ACC’s No. 2 team and end up in the Orange Bowl.
Wisconsin
Will it happen? The Badgers are certainly looking the part. They got the Michigan game out of the way, and now comes Michigan State. They’ll end up going to the Rose Bowl, but as long as their only regular season loss is at Ohio State, this will get interesting in the Big Ten Championship.
– Finished. It’s over. The College Football Playoff dream is kaput
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– One-loss teams still alive … technically
– The one-loss teams that actually have a shot
