Who’s still alive in the chase to get into the 2020-2021 College Football Playoff?
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It’s all a bit of a guess, but here’s how the unwritten College Football Playoff rules should still work, even in 2020 …
1) Win your Power Five championship and finish unbeaten, and you’re in. And yes, this will go for the Big Ten. The Pac-12 is a little iffy, though, with a six-game regular season, Go 7-0 with a conference title, and the Pac-12 will at least be on the doorstep.
Don’t make this too hard – the CFP committee isn’t going to want to get funky if there’s an unbeaten Power Five champ there to select.
2) Win your Power Five championship and finish with one loss, and in normal times you’re close to being a mortal lock. This year, the SEC champ is in with one loss no matter what, but it’s not so sure a thing across the board. This will be addressed in a moment.
3) Lose one game in the SEC, Big Ten, or this year, the ACC, with that one loss coming to a conference champion who’s off to the College Football Playoff. That’s how Alabama got in on the way to a title in 2017. Or, be dominant and have one loss that was by crazy circumstances, like Ohio State in 2016 despite losing to Penn State.
4) Win your Group of Five conference championship, go unbeaten, and pray for a whole lot of luck. We have yet to have a season with a slew of two-loss Power Five champions, but that’s what it would take for an unbeaten Group of Fiver to get in.
With all of that in mind, this is broken down into five categories.
– Teams that haven’t played yet, but …
– Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– One-loss teams still alive … technically
– The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
Teams that haven’t played yet, but really don’t have a shot
This year, considering the lack of non-conference games, just winning a Group of Five title won’t be enough, no matter what.
All of these teams will be in the hunt for an automatic New Year’s Six bowl slot if one goes unbeaten, but it’ll take something historically weird to get into the College Football Playoff.
American Athletic Conference
Houston, Temple
Conference USA
Rice
MAC
Akron, Ball State, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Kent State, Miami University, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Toledo, Western Michigan
Mountain West
Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State, San Jose State, UNLV, Utah State, Wyoming
Teams that haven’t played yet, but have a shot
Some might be longer shots than others, and some might be totally unrealistic, but if any of these teams go unbeaten with a conference championship, they’re almost certainly going to be in.
Big Ten
Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, Wisconsin
Pac-12
Arizona, Arizona State, Cal, Colorado, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Utah, Washington, Washington State
– Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– One-loss teams still alive … technically
– The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam …
Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam …
These teams are either Power Five programs with multiple losses, or have one loss from a Group of Five conference.
Outside of something totally catastrophic – like the global pandemic forcing just about everyone else to cancel the college football season – these XXX teams are out of the College Football Playoff hunt.
ACC
Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Syracuse, Wake Forest
American Athletic Conference
East Carolina, Memphis, Navy, Tulane, Tulsa, UCF, USF,
Big 12
Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech
Conference USA
Charlotte, FIU, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, North Texas, Southern Miss, UAB, UTEP, UTSA, WKU, (Old Dominion not playing in 2020)
Independents
Army, (New Mexico State, UConn not playing in 2020. UMass to play, but a limited schedule)
SEC
Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina, Vanderbilt
Sun Belt
Appalachian State, Arkansas State, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, South Alabama, Texas State, Troy, ULM
– Teams that haven’t played yet, but …
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– One-loss teams still alive … technically
– The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: Group of Five hopefuls
Group of Five hopefuls
It’ll take something miraculous to happen for any of these teams to get within sniffing distance of the College Football Playoff. The only possible way it works for any of them is to 1) go unbeaten, 2) be dominant doing it, and 3) hope for chaos in the Power Five championship games.
There can’t be four other options from the Power Five leagues.
Ranking the Group of Five programs still alive (sort of) …
American Athletic Conference
Ranked in order of most possible to least
1. Cincinnati
2. SMU
3. Houston
4. Temple
Conference USA
1. Marshall
2. Florida Atlantic
5. Rice
Independents
1. Liberty
Mountain West
1. Air Force
Sun Belt
1. Louisiana
2. Coastal Carolina
– Teams that haven’t played yet, but …
– Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam
– One-loss teams still alive … technically
– The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: One Loss Teams That Have a Shot … Technically
One loss teams that have a shot … technically
Run the table and finish the season with one loss and a conference championship, and that should get the job done. Lose again, and unless there’s a miracle, it’s all over. These teams will almost certainly lose again.
Arkansas (1-1)
When it’ll all be over: Next week at Auburn … but it was supposed to be over at Mississippi State last week.
Baylor (1-1)
When it’ll all be over: Oklahoma State this week or at Texas right after.
Boston College (2-1)
When it’ll all be over: against Pitt this week or at Virginia Tech to follow.
Iowa State (2-1)
When it’ll all be over: Not sure after whacking Oklahoma, but likely at Oklahoma State on October 24th.
Kansas State (2-1)
When it’ll all be over: If it’s not at TCU this week, at West Virginia on Halloween.
NC State (2-1)
When it’ll all be over: If it’s not at Virginia this week, it’ll likely be at North Carolina on the 24th.
Ole Miss (1-1)
When it’ll all be over: This week against Alabama.
Pitt (3-1)
When it’ll all be over: Likely at Miami at October 17th or against Notre Dame the week after.
Texas (2-1)
When it’ll all be over: It seems crazy to think Texas is done after just one loss, but it hasn’t looked even close to being good enough to beat Oklahoma next week, and win at Oklahoma State, and run the table against everyone else.
Texas A&M (1-1)
When it’ll all be over: Florida this week, or at Mississippi State the week after, or against LSU, or at Auburn …
TCU (1-1)
When it’ll all be over: If not against Kansas State this week, Oklahoma on October 24th … but it was supposed to be over last weekend at Texas.
Virginia (1-1)
When it’ll all be over: Take your pick, but likely at Miami on October 24th if the Cavaliers get by NC State this week.
West Virginia (2-1)
When it’ll all be over: It might not be for a bit with Kansas and at Texas Tech up next. Kansas State and at Texas follow that.
One loss teams that really do have a shot
If any of these teams win out and take a Power Five championship, it’ll be almost a near-certain lock to get in.
Auburn (1-1)
When it’ll all be over: It might be a while, especially if the Tigers beat LSU on Halloween. Get by that, and at Alabama on November 28th might be the best shot at another loss.
LSU (1-1)
When it’ll all be over: If it’s not at Florida on October 17th, then at Auburn on Halloween, and then against Alabama, or at Texas A&M on November 28th.
– Teams that haven’t played yet, but …
– Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders …
The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
Going unbeaten with a Power Five championship will all but guarantee an invite into the College Football Playoff. The Big Ten and Pac-12 will be added when they start playing.
Alabama (2-0)
Will it happen? Yeah. It has to get by Georgia at home and deal with LSU on the road. Now that Arkansas isn’t awful, there isn’t a total breather, but it’ll take something massive to take down the Crimson Tide.
BYU (3-0)
Will it happen? Nah, but after winning the first three games by a combined score of 148-24, it’s been the most dominant team of the season so far. The Cougars won’t get into the College Football Playoff if they finish 10-0 with wins over Boise State, San Diego State and Houston, but they could end up in a New Year’s Six bowl.
Clemson (3-0)
Will it happen? It might not be as easy as it seems. Miami is going to be a battle this week, going to Notre Dame will be fun, and facing Pitt and at Virginia Tech to close out will be full of landmines.
Florida (2-0)
Will it happen? It could, but it likely has to get to the SEC Championship unbeaten to make sure. At Texas A&M, MSU, and Georgia – those are three of the next four games. Get by that, and the sailing is relatively smooth.
Georgia (2-0)
Will it happen? Probably not. The team has a killer defense, and it showed against Auburn that it can be dominant overall, but Tennessee, at Alabama, Florida – those are three of the next four games around a date at Kentucky. The Dawgs will go four straight weeks without a home game.
Liberty (3-0)
Will it happen? Of course not, but win at Syracuse, Virginia Tech, and NC State on the way to a 10-0 record, and it might just get a New Year’s Six bowl spot.
Miami (3-0)
Will it happen? Nah. There are way too many landmines to get through unbeaten or with just one loss. At Clemson is up next, and Pitt follows it up, and then Virginia, and then at NC State, and then at Virginia Tech, and everything finishes up with North Carolina.
North Carolina (2-0)
Will it happen? Nope. The Tar Heels are fine, but they’re not getting by Virginia Tech next week, and NC State a few weeks later, and at Virginia, and Notre Dame, and at Miami with just one loss.
Notre Dame (2-0)
Will it happen? It’ll get close if it can get healthy again – it will likely play for the ACC title with just one loss. The schedule isn’t that bad with Clemson coming to South Bend, but going to Pitt, Boston College and North Carolina will be dangerous.
Oklahoma State (3-0)
Will it happen? Nope. It might be the only unbeaten Big 12 team left standing, but don’t be fooled by the 47-7 win over Kansas – that’s Kansas. However, after going to Baylor this week, Iowa State, Texas, at Oklahoma and at TCU will be tough to get through without two losses.
Tennessee (2-0)
Will it happen? Nope. Going to Georgia this week is a problem, and there’s still Alabama, Texas A&M, at Auburn, and Florida to deal with.
Virginia Tech (2-0)
Will it happen? It’s not crazy, but only if the team can get healthy and fully functional. Beat North Carolina on the road this week, and it’s relatively smooth sailing until late. The toughest remaining road game will be either at Louisville or Pitt, and Miami, Clemson and Virginia are at home.
– Teams that haven’t played yet, but …
– Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– One-loss teams still alive … technically
