Who’s still alive in the chase to get into the 2020-2021 College Football Playoff?
– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak
Even in this craziest of seasons with the wackiest of scenarios, here’s how the unwritten College Football Playoff rules should still work …
1) Win your Power Five championship and finish unbeaten, and you’re in. And yes, this will go for the Big Ten, and this will almost certainly go for a Pac-12 team that wins seven games and then its championship (maybe).
Don’t make this too hard – the CFP committee isn’t going to want to get too funky if there’s an unbeaten Power Five champ there to select.
2) Win your Power Five championship and finish with one loss, and in normal times you’re close to being a mortal lock. This year, the SEC champ is in with one loss no matter what, but it’s not so sure a thing across the board. This will be addressed in a moment.
3) Lose one game in the SEC, Big Ten, or this year, the ACC, with that one loss coming to a conference champion who’s off to the College Football Playoff. That’s how Alabama got in on the way to a title in 2017. Or, be dominant and have one loss that was by crazy circumstances, like Ohio State did to get in despite losing to Penn State in 2016.
4) Win your Group of Five conference championship and go unbeaten, and pray for a whole lot of luck. We have yet to have a season with a slew of two-loss Power Five champions, but that’s what it would take for an unbeaten Group of Fiver to get in.
With all of that in mind, this is broken down into five categories.
– Teams that haven’t played yet, but …
– Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– One-loss teams still alive … technically
– The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
Teams that haven’t played yet, but really don’t have a shot
This year, considering the lack of non-conference games, just winning a Group of Five title won’t be enough, no matter what.
Let’s not kid ourselves. These teams can go unbeaten, be amazing, and they might be allowed to watch the College Football Playoff on TV. However, all of these teams will be in the hunt for an automatic New Year’s Six bowl slot if one goes unbeaten.
American Athletic Conference
Houston, Temple
Conference USA
Florida Atlantic, Rice
MAC
Akron, Ball State, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Kent State, Miami University, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Toledo, Western Michigan
Mountain West
Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State, San Jose State, UNLV, Utah State, Wyoming
Teams that haven’t played yet, but have a shot
Some might be longer shots than others, and some might be totally unrealistic, but if any of these teams go unbeaten with a conference championship, they’re almost certainly going to be in.
Big Ten
Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, Wisconsin
Pac-12
Arizona, Arizona State, Cal, Colorado, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Utah, Washington, Washington State
– Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– One-loss teams still alive … technically
– The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam …
Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam …
These teams are either Power Five programs with multiple losses, or have one loss from a Group of Five conference.
Outside of something totally catastrophic – like the global pandemic forcing just about everyone else to cancel the college football season – these 40 teams are out of the College Football Playoff hunt.
ACC
Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Syracuse, Wake Forest
American Athletic Conference
East Carolina, Navy, USF, Tulane, Tulsa
Big 12
Kansas
Big Ten
Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers
Conference USA
Charlotte, FIU, Middle Tennessee, North Texas, Southern Miss, UAB, UTEP, WKU, (Old Dominion not playing in 2020)
Independents
Army, (New Mexico State, UConn not playing in 2020. UMass to play, but a limited schedule)
Sun Belt
Appalachian State, Arkansas State, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, South Alabama, Texas State, Troy, ULM
– Teams that haven’t played yet, but …
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– One-loss teams still alive … technically
– The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: Group of Five hopefuls
Group of Five hopefuls
It’ll take something miraculous to happen for any of these teams to get within sniffing distance of the College Football Playoff. The only possible way it works for any of them is to 1) go unbeaten, 2) be dominant doing it, and 3) hope for chaos in the Power Five championship games.
There can’t be four other options from the Power Five leagues.
Ranking the Group of Five programs still alive (sort of) …
American Athletic Conference
Ranked in order of most possible to least
1. UCF
2. Cincinnati
3. Memphis
4. SMU
5. Houston
6. Temple
Conference USA
1. Marshall
2. Louisiana Tech
3. Florida Atlantic
4. UTSA
5. Rice
Independents
1. Liberty
Sun Belt
1. Louisiana
2. Coastal Carolina
– Teams that haven’t played yet, but …
– Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam
– One-loss teams still alive … technically
– The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: One Loss Teams That Have a Shot … Technically
One loss teams that have a shot … technically
Run the table and finish the season with one loss and a conference championship, and that should get the job done. Lose again, and unless there’s a miracle, it’s all over. These teams will almost certainly lose again.
Arkansas
When it’ll all be over: Next week at Mississippi State
Iowa State
When it’ll all be over: either this week against Oklahoma or at Oklahoma State on October 24th.
Kansas State
When it’ll all be over: It got the big one out of the way at Oklahoma, but the Wildcats probably won’t be an underdog until Oklahoma State on November 7th or at Iowa State on November 21st.
Kentucky
When it’ll all be over: If not at home against Mississippi State on October 10th, at Tennessee on the 17th, or against Georgia on the 24th.
Missouri
When it’ll all be over: If not at Tennessee this week, at LSU the week after.
NC State
When it’ll all be over: at Pitt this week or at Virginia the week after.
Ole Miss
When it’ll all be over: Either at Kentucky this week or against Alabama the week after.
South Carolina
When it’ll all be over: At Florida this week, or against Auburn on October 17th, or at LSU on October 24th.
TCU
When it’ll all be over: This week at Texas.
Texas Tech
When it’ll all be over: Either at Kansas State this week or at Iowa State the week after.
Vanderbilt
When it’ll all be over: This week against LSU.
West Virginia
When it’ll all be over: If not against Baylor this week, at Texas Tech on October 24th, or against Kansas State on October 31st. If the Mountaineers go on a roll, then at Texas November 7th.
One loss teams that really do have a shot
This list will get bigger in a hurry. If any of these teams win out and win their Power Five championship, they’re almost a near-certain lock to get in.
LSU
When it’ll all be over: It might not be, but at Florida on October 17th or at Auburn on October 31st are the next best shots to get knocked out.
Oklahoma
When it’ll all be over: It could happen this week at Iowa State, or the next week against Texas. If the Sooners get through those two clean, then Oklahoma State on November 21st will be an issue. However, even if OU goes unbeaten the rest of the way, the Big 12 is so bad that a one-loss champ will need a ton of help.
– Teams that haven’t played yet, but …
– Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders …
The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
Unbeaten with a Power Five championship will all but guarantee an invite into the College Football Playoff. The Big Ten and Pac-12 will be added when they start playing.
Alabama
Will it happen? It’s going to take something amazing to beat this team twice. There are plenty of landmines, but the toughest road game is at LSU, and that’s about it, the rest of the tough games are at home.
Auburn
Will it happen? It’s a good team, but it has to go to Georgia, Mississippi State and Alabama. It’s not going to get out of the West alive.
Baylor
Will it happen? No, but why not? The Big 12 is awful, but the Bears have to go to Texas and Oklahoma. Five of the last nine games are on the road.
Boston College
Will it happen? No. The Eagles survived Texas State this week, but they won’t get by road games at Virginia Tech and Clemson.
BYU
When it’ll all be over: No, because the schedule isn’t nearly good enough – there aren’t any Power Five teams on the slate. However, it won its first two games over Navy and Troy by a combined score of 103-10. Do that over the entire season, and the CFP committee will have to listen.
Clemson
Will it happen? Yes, but it’s not the 100% lock you might think it is. Miami isn’t a speed bump – that’s in a few weeks – and neither is Pitt. Throw in road games at Notre Dame and Virginia Tech, and the Tigers will have to work for it.
Florida
Will it happen? It’s all up to the defense and whether or not it improves after the 51-35 win over Ole Miss. At Texas A&M, LSU, Georgia – those are the highlights of a tough run. Just get to the SEC Championship unbeaten, and it’s probably in. The same goes for …
Georgia
Will it happen? It was a rough opener against Arkansas, and Auburn is up next with a trip to Alabama a few weeks later. Throw in dates with Florida and Mississippi State, and it’s going to be a rough road to just get to the SEC Championship without more from the offense.
Liberty
Will it happen? No, no, no. However … the Flames have to play Syracuse, Virginia Tech, and NC State all on the road. It’s not going to happen, but go unbeaten, and the resumé will be better than anything any Big 12 team could boast.
Miami
Will it happen? It’s on the table now. The Hurricanes can lose at Clemson in a few weeks, run the table from there, and get in if they can win a rematch against the Tigers in the ACC Championship. A one-loss Miami with an ACC title gets in.
Mississippi State
Will it happen? No, it’s a Mike Leach team – the machine will stall from time to time – but after winning at LSU, are you totally sure the Bulldogs can’t win at Alabama and Georgia?
North Carolina
Will it happen? It has to be a whole lot better than it was against Syracuse in the opener, but there’s no Clemson, and the Notre Dame and Miami games come at the end. It might take a while before the Tar Heels lose two games, if at all.
Notre Dame
Will it happen? At the very least, it can absolutely get to the ACC Championship with the CFP on the table with a win. Can the team return healthy and slightly sharper? Going to Pitt on October 24th is a problem, but win that, and the November 7th date with Clemson and the road game at North Carolina are the only landmines.
Oklahoma State
Will it happen? Ehhhhhh, the team has been underwhelming, to be kind. It might have a problem at Baylor, and the Oklahoma and Texas games are dangerous, but this year, the Big 12 champ probably has to go unbeaten, and OSU won’t do it.
Pitt
Will it happen? The team is playing well, but no. Even if it gets by Miami on the road and Notre Dame at home, it closes out against Virginia Tech and at Clemson.
Tennessee
Will it happen? No. At Georgia, Alabama, Texas A&M, at Auburn, Florida. The Vols will lose at least two of those.
Texas
When it’ll all be over: In a hurry if it plays another game like it did against Texas Tech on the road. It has to go to Oklahoma State and Kansas State, and it has to deal with Oklahoma. The team isn’t good enough to get to the Big 12 Championship unbeaten.
Texas A&M
When it’ll all be over: Very, very quickly with at Alabama, Florida, and at Mississippi State in the next three games.
Virginia
When it’ll all be over: At Clemson this week will be Step One, and at Miami on October 24th will finish it off.
Virginia Tech
When it’ll all be over: It might not – this might be the second-best team in the ACC when it’s healthy again, or at least in the top three. There’s no Notre Dame on the schedule, but it has to deal with Miami and Clemson. Both of those though are at home. Going to North Carolina and Pitt, though, will be fights.
– Teams that haven’t played yet, but …
– Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– One-loss teams still alive … technically
