Who’s still alive in the chase to get into the 2019-2020 College Football Playoff?
– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak
Here’s how we know the unwritten rules work, generally speaking …
1) Win your Power Five championship and finish 13-0, and you’re in. There won’t be five of them, and if there are, the Pac-12 is almost certainly out. Or …
2) Win your Power Five championship and finish 12-1, and you’re probably in. Ohio State was the first to miss out last year after doing this, partly because it got blown away by Purdue, and totally because Notre Dame was 12-0.
3) Go 11-1 in the SEC or Big Ten with that one loss coming to a conference champion who’s off to the College Football Playoff. That’s how Alabama got in on the way to a title in 2017. Or, be dominant and have one loss that was by crazy circumstances, like Ohio State did to get in despite losing to Penn State in 2016.
4) Win your Group of Five conference championship at 13-0 and pray for a whole lot of luck. We have yet to have a slew of two-loss Power Five champions, but that’s what it would take for an unbeaten Group of Fiver to get in.
With all of that in mind, this is broken down into five categories.
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– The one-loss teams that technically still have a shot
– The one-loss teams that actually have a shot
– The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
Finished. It’s over. Let’s go take a steam …
These teams are either Power Five programs with multiple losses – with one notable exception – or have one loss from a Group of Five conference.
These 79 teams are out of the national title hunt even though the season is just a month old.
American Athletic Conference
Cincinnati, East Carolina, Houston, Temple, Tulsa, UConn, UCF, USF
ACC
Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Louisville, North Carolina, Pitt, Syracuse
Big 12
Kansas
Big Ten
Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers
Conference USA
Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Louisiana Tech, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, North Texas, Old Dominion, Rice, Southern Miss, UTEP, UTSA, WKU
Independents
Army, BYU, Liberty, New Mexico State, UMass
MAC
Akron, Ball State, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Kent State, Miami University, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Toledo, Western Michigan
Mountain West
Air Force, Colorado State, Fresno State, Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State, San Jose State, UNLV, Utah State, Wyoming
Pac-12
Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA
SEC
Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri (not eligible), Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Sun Belt
Arkansas State, Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Louisiana, South Alabama, Texas State, Troy, ULM
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– The one-loss teams that technically still have a shot
– The one-loss teams that actually have a shot
– The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: Group of Five hopefuls
Group of Five hopefuls
It’ll take something miraculous to happen for any of these teams to get within sniffing distance of the CFP. The only possible way it works is to 1) go unbeaten, 2) be dominant doing it, and 3) hope for chaos in the Power Five championship games.
There can’t be four other options from the Power Five leagues.
Ranking the Group of Five programs still alive from no shot to so-you’re-saying-there’s-a-chance …
6. UAB
There’s no chance it’s going to happen with Tennessee the only game against a Power Five team, but the schedule is light enough to get through clean with a win in Knoxville. Even at 12-0, though, forget it.
5. Appalachian State
And now the Mountaineers have a win at North Carolina. There’s a date at South Carolina for another possible Power Five win, and winning at Louisiana and Troy would be better than it seems.
4. SMU
The Mustangs looked like the real deal with the thrilling win at TCU. They still have to go to Houston, and they have to deal with a trip to Memphis and a date with Tulane, but they just got the toughest game on their schedule out of the way.
3. Memphis
The resumé won’t be strong enough with the lone Power Five victory coming against Ole Miss at home, and playing five road games in seven dates after dealing with Navy this week will be tough. With road games at Temple and Houston, and with home games against SMU and Cincinnati, it’ll be a fight to get to 12-0.
2. Boise State
Beating Florida State won’t be enough, but the brand name is enough to at least get in the room if the Broncos go 12-0 with a Mountain West title. Beating Utah State on the road won’t be enough to get anyone excited, but they lead the pack now in the hunt for a New Year’s Six spot.
1. Navy
The one advantage the 2-0 Midshipmen have over the rest of the remaining unbeaten Power Five teams is a date at Notre Dame. Beating Memphis and Houston on the road would be good, beating Army would be great, and beating Tulane, Air Force and SMU at home would be a big deal.
Do all of that and take down the Irish in South Bend – to go along with an American Athletic Conference Championship win over UCF – and they’d absolutely be in the discussion. It’s not going to happen, but the schedule opportunities will be there.
– Finished. It’s over. The College Football Playoff dream is kaput
– The one-loss teams that technically still have a shot
– The one-loss teams that actually have a shot
– The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: One Loss Teams That Have a Shot … Technically
One loss teams that have a shot … Technically
Run the table and finish the season at 12-1 with a conference championship, and that should get the job done. There’s also a key two-loss program still in the mix, but for all of these teams … nah. It’s not happening.
Arizona
When it’ll all be over: UCLA isn’t a layup now next week, but the end will come either at Colorado the week after or when Washington comes to town.
Arizona State
When it’ll all be over: If not at Cal on Friday night, at Utah, or at UCLA, or against USC, or against Oregon … it’s a rough run the rest of the way.
Boston College
When it’ll all be over: The Eagles are good enough to beat Wake Forest, but even if they get hot for the next few weeks, they have to go to Clemson on October 26th.
Colorado
When it’ll all be over: If not Arizona this week, then at Oregon or at Washington State.
Duke
When it’ll all be over: The Blue Devils might be able to win at Virginia Tech next week, and they should go on a little bit of a run. But at Virginia, Notre Dame, at Wake Forest and Miami is too tough a road to get through clean.
Indiana
When it’ll all be over: At Michigan State this week. Pull that off, through, and this might get a wee bit interesting considering … nah.
Iowa State
When it’ll all be over: Take your pick of any Big 12 game. At Baylor this week might be it, or against TCU right after, or at West Virginia – the CFP hopes will be done over the next few weeks.
Maryland
When it’ll all be over: Win against Penn State this week, and there’s a chance to go on a major run with Michigan coming to College Park. However … at Ohio State, at Michigan State. It’s not happening.
Mississippi State
When it’ll all be over: At Auburn this week. Even with a win, there’s still LSU, at Texas A&M and Alabama to deal with.
Nebraska
When it’ll all be over: If it’s not against Ohio State this week, it’s against Wisconsin or Iowa in November – if the Huskers can still get there unscathed.
NC State
When it’ll all be over: The Pack could lose at Florida State this week. The date with Clemson on November 9th is the hard no, but other than that, this is a schedule to potentially run through.
Texas A&M
When it’ll all be over: Here’s the one big overall exception. A&M has two losses, but one is at Clemson, and the chances will be there to redeem themselves for the loss to Auburn. It won’t happen, but run the table by beating Alabama, Georgia at Georgia and LSU at LSU, get to the SEC Championship, and beat Georgia again or beat Florida, and the Aggies are in.
Texas Tech
When it’ll all be over: At Oklahoma this week.
USC
When it’ll all be over: This week at Washington or next up after that at Notre Dame.
Virginia Tech
When it’ll all be over: The schedule just isn’t that bad, but if there’s not a whiff over the next few weeks, it’ll be over at Notre Dame on November 2nd.
West Virginia
When it’ll all be over: It could happen any week now after slipping by Kansas. Even if there’s a win over Texas in Morgantown. there’s a full stop at Oklahoma on October 19th.
– Finished. It’s over. The College Football Playoff dream is kaput
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– The one-loss teams that actually have a shot
– The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: One loss teams that really do have a shot
One loss teams that really do have a shot
There was a misfire along the way early, but if any of these teams win out and go 12-1 with a Power Five conference championship … in. Done. No questions asked – okay, with the possible exception of the Pac-12 champ -unless there are four other unbeaten Power Five conference champs. That’s almost certainly not going to happen.
Michigan
Loss two will come: It was a really, really, really bad day against Wisconsin, but the talent and experience are still there to go on a run. Don’t be shocked if the team is a whole lot better as the season goes on … and loses to Michigan State or Ohio State.
Michigan State
Loss two will come: With back-to-back games at Ohio State and Wisconsin coming up after the date with Indiana, the Spartans have too big of a hill to climb.
Notre Dame
Loss two will come: It might not. Virginia, USC, at Michigan. Outside of those three games, it’ll take something extraordinary to get by the Irish. 11-1 probably won’t do it unless Georgia goes 13-0 with an SEC Championship, but if they can win out, they’ll be in the mix if there are a slew of Power Five champs with two or more losses.
Oklahoma State
Loss two will come: at Iowa State in late October, or at Oklahoma at the end of the regular season. The second loss will happen, but it’s not a given now with ether Texas game out of the way.
Oregon
Loss two will come: It might not. This is looking like the best team in the Pac-12, but it has to go to Washington, USC and Arizona State.
TCU
Loss two will come: The loss to SMU was a disaster. The defense really is good enough to hang with anyone, but it won’t be enough to get by Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma and and Oklahoma State on the road, AND Texas and Baylor at home.
Texas
Loss two will come: With the defense struggling against the star offenses, there could be a problem against just about anyone in the Big 12. If it’s not against Oklahoma in a few weeks, that second loss might come against Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship.
Utah
Loss two will come: The schedule isn’t all that awful the rest of the way, but No. 2 will come at Washington on November 2nd. If not, watch out for the trip to Arizona and the hone games against Arizona State and Cal.
Washington
Loss two will come: It’ll potentially come down to the home game against Oregon. Win that, and get by Utah and Washington State at home, and the Huskies are likely going to be 11-1 on the way to the Pac-12 Championship game.
Washington State
Loss two will come: No, the Cougars won’t run the table, but it’s going to be a fantastic ride. At Utah, at Arizona State, at Oregon, at Cal, at Washington. That’s not fair.
– Finished. It’s over. The College Football Playoff dream is kaput
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– The one-loss teams that technically still have a shot
– The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders …
The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
13-0 with a Power Five championship will all but guarantee an invite into the CFP. Remember, one loss isn’t necessarily a killer. 12-1 with a conference championship still likely gets it done.
Alabama
Will it happen? Eventually the Tide will play someone good. Going to Texas A&M in two weeks is a start, but LSU comes to Tuscaloosa. The Iron Bowl at Auburn is looking bigger and bigger, but the Tide will roll on into the SEC Championship.
Auburn
Will it happen? With this defense, the great lines, and an emerging Bo Nix, it’ll be a tough out. However, that run of at Florida, at Arkansas – which only matters because of the string of road games – and at LSU will be too tough to get by. Georgia and Alabama aways in November.
Baylor
Will it happen? Not if the Bears play like they did at Rice this last weekend. The Big 12 slate is too tough to get through unscathed, but Oklahoma and Texas have to come to Waco.
Cal
Will it happen? It’s a potentially special team with an amazing defense. Get by Oregon in two weeks and survive at Utah, and this gets interesting, but … no – the Bears will lose at least twice.
Clemson
Will it happen? Easily. The rest of the schedule is a pathetic joke. It’s not Clemson’s fault all these teams are so mediocre, but anything less than a weekly wipeout unto the College Football Playoff will be unacceptable.
Florida
Will it happen? The Gators aren’t getting enough love and respect, but they’ll have their big chances … and either lose to Georgia or LSU. If the loss comes against Georgia, there’s still a shot to get in by going 11-1 with a win over LSU. However, they’ll lose both massive games and just miss out.
Georgia
Will it happen? The Dawgs have to go to Auburn and deal with Florida, but that’s about it. The Texas A&M game should be nasty, but the CFP dream will almost certainly come down to winning the SEC Championship game. Expect a second straight trip to the Sugar Bowl.
Iowa
Will it happen? Not with trips to Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska to deal with. Throw in the home games against Penn State and Minnesota, and simply getting to 10-2 would be terrific.
Kansas State
Will it happen? At Oklahoma State, at Texas, home against Oklahoma, TCU and Iowa State. The Wildcats will win a few of those, but not all of them.
LSU
Will it happen? To be wishy-washy … maybe. The defense has to be a whole lot better, but as long as the Tigers don’t slip at home against Florida, Auburn or Texas A&M, the showdown at Alabama will be for the College Football Playoff – a 12-0 LSU that loses the SEC Championship game might still be in. An 11-1 LSU that loses to Alabama might still be in, too.
Minnesota
Will it happen? Nah. The Gophers could just as easily be 0-3 as 3-0. The schedule isn’t all that bad, but they have to play a whole lot better to get by Purdue on the road and hang around with Penn State and Wisconsin.
Ohio State
Will it happen? The Buckeyes have yet to play anyone dangerous. Indiana is the best team they’ve had to deal with, but they have to go to Nebraska this week, deal with Michigan State, Wisconsin, Penn State, and go to Michigan. They’ll drop one game somewhere, but they’ll win the Big Ten title – again – on the way to the CFP. Speaking of not playing anyone …
Oklahoma
Will it happen? Houston, South Dakota and UCLA, even if that win over the Bruins looks a whole lot better now. There won’t be even the slightest of tests until they have to deal with Texas, and then things start to get at least a little challenging. They’ll drop a game, but the 12-1 Sooners will get in.
Penn State
Will it happen? Nope. The Nittany Lions could lose on the road to Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota and/or Ohio State, and they get Michigan at home.
Virginia
Will it happen? After struggling so much against Old Dominion, no, it’s not going to happen. However, don’t be stunned if the Cavaliers push Notre Dame next week and come really, really close to running the table from there against a weak ACC slate.
Wake Forest
Will it happen? No, but it’s going to be a blast. The Demon Deacons might just bomb their way to 9-0 before going to Clemson.
Wisconsin
Will it happen? The narrative changes a bit now after destroying Michigan. If that Badger team shows up every week, only Michigan State and Ohio State have a reasonable shot. At least split against those two, beat everyone else, go to the Big Ten Championship at 11-1 – at worst – and a win away from going to the CFP. Bucky will end up in the Rose Bowl.
– Finished. It’s over. The College Football Playoff dream is kaput
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– The one-loss teams that technically still have a shot
– The one-loss teams that actually have a shot
