Who’s still alive in the chase to get into the 2019-2020 College Football Playoff?
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Week 3 was a blast and we all had a lot of fun, but now it’s really Game On starting next week when conference play kicks in full-force and Notre Dame goes to Georgia.
It’s mid-September, but several teams have already bowed out, and some are on life-support to get one of those four spots. Here’s how we know the unwritten rules work, generally speaking …
1) Win your Power Five championship and finish 13-0, and you’re in. There won’t be five of them, and if there are, the Pac-12 is almost certainly out. Or …
2) Win your Power Five championship and finish 12-1, and you’re probably in. Ohio State was the first to miss out last year after doing this, partly because it got blown away by Purdue, and totally because Notre Dame was 12-0.
3) Go 11-1 in the SEC or Big Ten with that one loss coming to a conference champion who’s off to the College Football Playoff. That’s how Alabama got in on the way to a title in 2017. Or, be dominant and have one loss that was by crazy circumstances, like Ohio State did to get in despite losing to Penn State in 2016.
4) Win your Group of Five conference championship at 13-0 and pray for a whole lot of luck. We have yet to have a slew of two-loss Power Five champions, but that’s what it would take for an unbeaten Group of Fiver to get in.
or, of course …
5) Be Notre Dame and go 12-0. This is hardly a given, though. It would take a few Power Five champs to have losses to make this happen.
With all of that in mind, this is broken down into five categories.
– Finished. It’s over. The College Football Playoff dream is kaput
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– The one-loss teams that technically still have a shot
– The one-loss teams that actually have a shot
– The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
Finished. It’s over. Let’s go take a steam …
These teams all have multiple losses or have one loss from a Group of Five conference. 66 teams are out of the national title hunt even though the season has barely started.
American Athletic Conference
Cincinnati, East Carolina, Houston, Tulsa, UConn, USF
ACC
Florida State, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Miami, Pitt
Big 12
None
Big Ten
Purdue
Conference USA
Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Louisiana Tech, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, North Texas, Old Dominion, Rice, Southern Miss, UTEP, UTSA, WKU
Independents
Army, BYU, Liberty, New Mexico State, UMass
MAC
Akron, Ball State, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Kent State, Miami University, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Toledo, Western Michigan
Mountain West
Colorado State, Fresno State, Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico, San Jose State, UNLV, Utah State
Pac-12
Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA
SEC
Missouri (not eligible), South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Sun Belt
Arkansas State, Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Louisiana, South Alabama, Texas State, Troy, ULM
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– The one-loss teams that technically still have a shot
– The one-loss teams that actually have a shot
– The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: Group of Five hopefuls
Group of Five hopefuls
It’ll take something miraculous to happen to get within sniffing distance, and yes, this means you too, you program in Orlando who likes to create banners.
The only possible way it works for any one of these programs is to go unbeaten, be dominant doing it, and hope for chaos among the Power Five championship games.
There can’t be four other options from the Power Five leagues.
Ranking the Group of Five programs still alive from no shot to so-you’re-saying-there’s-a-chance …
11. UAB
There’s no shot. The Blazers have one game against a Power Five program, and beating Tennessee – even in Knoxville – has been done already.
10. Appalachian State
It would be nice if the Mountaineers can win at North Carolina next week and home the Tar Heels go off the rest of the way, but there’s a hard ceiling with the Sun Belt schedule.
9. SMU
Winning at TCU next week would help the cause, and going to Houston, Memphis and Navy would be resumé-builders, but it still wouldn’t be enough.
8. Wyoming
The Missouri win is the calling card, but beat San Diego State and Boise Stat eon the road, and then this could get interesting.
7. Air Force
Beating Colorado was good, taking out Boise State on the road with everyone watching this Friday would be great. With Utah State, Fresno State and Army to play, the slate has some pop.
6. San Diego State
It stinks or the Aztecs that the UCLA win is meaningless. There’s nothing else on the schedule to perk up the committee’s ears.
5. Memphis
Beating Ole Miss in a 15-10 uggo game isn’t enough. Beating Houston on the road would be good, and taking out Temple and Cincinnati would be great, but this only works if the Tigers are 12-0 and beat a 12-0 UCF in the American Athletic Conference title game.
4. Boise State
The program has the street cred, but would a win over Florida State be enough? No … the Broncos have to obliterate everyone in their path.
3. Navy
The Midshipmen a trip to Notre Dame. Win that, beat Army, beat Houston on the road and take down Air Force, and then win the AAC title … then let’s talk.
2. Temple
The win over Maryland was a great start. With Georgia Tech and UCF combining to Philly, and with Memphis and Cincinnati on the slate, going 13-0 would get the Owls in the room for a discussion. But … no. The only real hope is …
1. UCF
Here’s the issue … Stanford sort of stinks, and so does Pitt. So even if UCF goes 13-0, no one’s going to the wall because of wins over those two Group of Fivers. However, if the program rolls through another season unbeaten – including road wins over Cincinnati, Temple and Tulane – and there are a few conference championship upsets, it’ll get interesting.
– Finished. It’s over. The College Football Playoff dream is kaput
– The one-loss teams that technically still have a shot
– The one-loss teams that actually have a shot
– The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: One Loss Teams That Have a Shot … Technically
One loss teams that have a shot … Technically
Yeah, if any of these Power Five programs run the table and finish the season at 12-1 with a conference championship, then technically it’ll be right there on the doorstep to get an invite into the big four. But realistically, no …
Arizona
When it’ll all be over: At Colorado on October 5th or at home against Washington on October 12th
Arkansas
When it’ll all be over: Texas A&M in Arlington on September 28th
Boston College
When it’ll all be over: This could take longer than you’d think. If it’s not against Wake Forest at home on September 28th, it’ll definitely be either against NC State on October 19th or at Clemson on the 26th.
Colorado
When it’ll all be over: Next week at Arizona State or at Oregon on October 11th.
Duke
When it’ll all be over: Either at Virginia Tech on September 27th, or at Virginia on October 19th.
Illinois
When it’ll all be over: Next week against Nebraska or the following week at Minnesota.
Indiana
When it’ll all be over: At Michigan State on September 28th. However, win that, and it might take awhile. At Maryland on October 19th will be the definite end.
Iowa State
When it’ll all be over: If it’s not at Baylor on September 28th, it’ll be against TCU the following week.
Kansas
When it’ll all be over: Reality will come to Lawrence when West Virginia arrives on September 21st.
Kentucky
When it’ll all be over: Either at Mississippi State next week or at South Carolina the week after. If UK wins both of those, it’ll be at Georgia on October 19th.
Louisville
When it’ll all be over: Next week at Florida State.
Maryland
When it’ll all be over: If Maryland wins at Penn State in two weeks, it might be a while. It’ll probably be against the Nittany Lions, but if not, it might not end until November against Michigan or at Ohio State.
Mississippi State
When it’ll all be over: At Auburn on September 28th if it’s not against Kentucky next week.
Nebraska
When it’ll all be over: At home against Ohio State on September 28th.
North Carolina
When it’ll all be over: September 28th vs. Clemson.
Northwestern
When it’ll all be over: This week against Michigan State or the week after at Wisconsin.
NC State
When it’ll all be over: If it’s not at Florida State on September 28th, there’s a shot it could be a while if the Wolfpack get their (bleep) together after the weird performance against West Virginia. November 9th against Clemson is when it’ll end no matter what.
Ole Miss
When it’ll all be over: Either next week against Cal or the week after against Alabama.
Rutgers
When it’ll all be over: Next week against Boston College.
Texas A&M
When it’ll all be over: October 12th vs. Alabama if the Aggies get by Auburn next week.
Texas Tech
When it’ll all be over: At Oklahoma in two weeks.
USC
When it’ll all be over: Don’t expect next week against Utah to be an automatic out at home. At Washington or at Notre Dame will end it.
Virginia Tech
When it’ll all be over: Either in two weeks against Duke, or the week after against Miami.
West Virginia
When it’ll all be over: Can it really be at Kansas next week? If not, it’ll be at Texas right after.
– Finished. It’s over. The College Football Playoff dream is kaput
– The one-loss teams that technically still have a shot
– The one-loss teams that actually have a shot
– The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: One loss teams that really do have a shot
One loss teams that really do have a shot
This list is light right now, but it’ll grow in a hurry. There was a misfire along the way early, but if any of these teams win out and go 12-1 with a Power Five conference championship … in. Done. No questions asked, unless there are four unbeaten Power Five conference champs – that’s not going to happen.
Michigan State
Loss two will come: If it’s not at Ohio State on October 5th, it’ll be at Wisconsin on the 12th.
Oregon
Loss two will come: In the College Football Playoff? It’s going to take something special to beat this team if it’s humming on all cylinders. If it does come, it’ll be at Washington on October 19th.
Texas
Loss two will come: The Big 12 is too spicy this year. Anyone can trip up the Longhorns, but the Oklahoma game is on October 12th. Next week against Oklahoma State will be dangerous.
Washington
Loss two will come: It might not. Oregon on October 19th is a problem, but the road games at Stanford, Arizona, Oregon State and Colorado aren’t bad. Utah has to come to Seattle on November 2nd.
– Finished. It’s over. The College Football Playoff dream is kaput
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– The one-loss teams that technically still have a shot
– The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders …
The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
Sorry UCF and the rest of the Group of Five types – going unbeaten doesn’t assure you of anything. For the Power Five programs, 13-0 with a championship will almost certainly earn an invite.
Remember, one loss isn’t necessarily a killer. 12-1 with a conference championship still likely gets it done.
Alabama
Will it happen? It’s not going to be smooth sailing, but the Tide will claw their way through an unbeaten regular season to earn the No. 1 seed. The CFP will like the Bama schedule better than Clemson’s.
Arizona State
Will it happen? There’s not enough of an offense. If the Sun Devils don’t get tagged at Cal in a 3-0 slugfest, it’ll lose at Utah on October 19th or against Oregon in late November.
Auburn
Will it happen? Nah … there’s not enough offense. At Texas A&M on September 21st, at Florida on October 5th, at LSU on October 26th, Georgia on November 16th, and Alabama to close things out. Good luck.
Baylor
Will it happen? The Bears get Oklahoma and Texas at home – this might be more interesting than you think. The date at Kansas State on October 5th will be an issue.
Cal
Will it happen? It might take a little bit to put the Bears away. They don’t have the offense, but they already got by Washington. If they beat Oregon on October 5th, they might just get to the Pac-12 Championship game at … nah. They lose to the Ducks and on October 26th at Utah.
Clemson
Will it happen? Yeah, and along the way we’ll have a national debate and discussion about how squishy-soft the schedule is. No one left on the schedule full of unranked teams will come within 20 of the Tigers.
Georgia
Will it happen? If not, it’ll come really, really close. There will be a misfire along the way – maybe to Florida on November 2nd, or possibly to Auburn on the road or at home to Texas A&M. It’ll be the No. 5 team in the final rankings.
Iowa
Will it happen? It’s Iowa, so there are four losses coming somewhere. At Michigan on October 5th, Penn State the week after, at Wisconsin on November 9th – the Hawkeyes aren’t getting to the show.
Kansas State
Will it happen? Nah. It’ll be a good team that’ll go bowling, but it’ll lose at least three Big 12 games.
LSU
Will it happen? Get ready for a big national debate about whether or not an 11-1 LSU that loses to Alabama on the road deserves to be in. The other big games – Florida on October 12th and Texas A&M on November 30th – are at home.
Michigan
Will it happen? Don’t dismiss the Wolverines quite yet just because of the Army game. But … dismiss the Wolverines. They have to go to Wisconsin next week, make a trip to Penn State, and watch out for the date at Maryland on November 2nd. Oh yeah, and they have to play Michigan State and Ohio State, too.
Minnesota
Will it happen? How is this team not 0-3? Don’t be surprised if it’s deep in the mix for the Big Ten West title, but it’ll lose at least four games with the way it struggled against mediocre teams in the first three weeks.
Notre Dame
Will it happen? Don’t look now, but the schedule isn’t that bad if the Irish get by Georgia this week. Unfortunately, one loss kills the dream, and they have to go to Athens and to Michigan.
Ohio State
Will it happen? The Buckeyes will drop a game along the way – maybe against Wisconsin on October 26th or to (gasp) Michigan on November 30th – but they’re not losing twice. They’ll get back to the Big Ten Championship, win it, and this time get an invite.
Oklahoma
Will it happen? Lost in all of the fun is that they haven’t played anyone who’s any good. The Sooners will drop a game along the way, but they’ll beat either Texas or TCU in the Big 12 Championship to go to a third straight College Football Playoff.
Oklahoma State
Will it happen? It’s a fun team with a whole lot of offense, but it has to go to Texas next week. Win that, and things get interesting with the toughest remaining games in Stillwater. The Cowboys will lose three times, though.
Penn State
Will it happen? It’ll take everything in the bag for the Nittany Lions to not finish fourth in the Big Ten East. All five road games – Maryland, Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota and Ohio State – are scary. They’ll drop at least two of them.
TCU
Will it happen? Don’t sleep on the Horned Frogs if they have the defense to go along with the offense. Don’t be stunned if they’re still hanging around the chase in late October when they go to Oklahoma, but they’ll lose twice before getting there.
Utah
Will it happen? Utah doesn’t win at USC – don’t mess with a streak – and that’s coming up on Friday. They don’t have Oregon on the schedule, but they’ll lose at Washington before dropping the Pac-12 Championship to Oregon.
Virginia
Will it happen? Where’s the sure loss? There’s no Clemson on the slate, but the Cavs have to go to Notre Dame and Miami in back-to-back games. They’ll lose twice before dropping the ACC Championship to the Tigers.
Wake Forest
Will it happen? It’s a really, really fun team that could easily start the season 9-0 if this O keeps working. Going to Clemson will slam it all shut, and realistically, they’ll drop two games before that.
Washington State
Will it happen? At Utah, at Arizona State, at Oregon, at Cal, at Washington. Nope.
Wisconsin
Will it happen? The Badgers will eventually play someone who’s not bad at college football … like Michigan next week. They’ll win the West, but they’ll have a meltdown multi-turnover game somewhere to go along with a loss at Ohio State at the end of October.
– Finished. It’s over. The College Football Playoff dream is kaput
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– The one-loss teams that technically still have a shot
– The one-loss teams that actually have a shot
