Who’s still alive in the chase to get into the 2020-2021 College Football Playoff?
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Next week it’s really on when the Pac-12 adds its two-cents into the mix.
As always, the ground rules for this are 1) win your Power Five championship and go unbeaten and you’re almost certainly in, or 2) finish with one loss and a Power Five championship and you’re probably in, or 3) lose one game in the SEC, Big Ten or ACC and as long as that’s it, you have a shot.
Everyone else is playing for the joy of college football.
– Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– One-loss teams still alive
– Unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
Teams that haven’t played yet, but have a chance
With a short season, go 7-0 with a Pac-12 championship and there’s a shot. 6-1 and ehhhhhhh.
Pac-12
Arizona, Cal, Utah, Washington
– Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– One-loss teams still alive
– Unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam …
These teams are either Power Five programs with multiple losses or Group of Five programs with one loss. Also being added is any Pac-12 team with a loss – there’s no chance with the league’s short schedule.
Unless something insane happens, these 83 teams are out of the College Football Playoff hunt.
ACC
Boston College, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
American Athletic Conference
East Carolina, Houston, Memphis, Navy, SMU, Tulane, Temple, Tulsa, UCF, USF
Big Ten
Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Penn State, Rutgers
Big 12
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech, West Virginia,
Conference USA
Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, FIU, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, North Texas, Rice, Southern Miss, UAB, UTEP, UTSA, WKU, (Old Dominion not playing in 2020)
Independents
Army, (New Mexico State, UConn not playing in 2020. UMass
MAC
Akron, Ball State, Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Ohio,
Mountain West
Air Force, Colorado State, Fresno State, Hawaii, New Mexico, UNLV, Utah State, Wyoming
Pac-12
Arizona State, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA
SEC
Arkansas, Auburn, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Sun Belt
Appalachian State, Arkansas State, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Louisiana, South Alabama, Texas State, Troy, ULM
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– One-loss teams still alive
– Unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: Group of Five hopefuls
Group of Five College Football Playoff, New Year’s Six hopefuls
Ranking the Group of Five programs still alive – sort of – in the College Football Playoff chase, but more realistically, the teams in the hunt for the Group of Five’s New Year’s Six bowl slot are …
American Athletic Conference
Ranked in order of most possible to least
1. Cincinnati
New Year’s Six Bowl
2. SMU
3. Tulsa
Conference USA
1. Marshall
New Year’s Six Bowl
2. Florida Atlantic
3. Rice
Independents
1. BYU
2. Liberty
MAC
1. Buffalo
2. Western Michigan
3. Toledo
4. Miami University
5. Central Michigan
6. Kent State
New Year’s Six Bowl
7. Ohio
8. Ball State
9. Eastern Michigan
10. Northern Illinois
11. Bowling Green
12. Akron
Mountain West
1. Nevada
2. San Jose State
New Year’s Six Bowl
3. Boise State
4. San Diego State
5. Hawaii
6, Fresno State
7. Colorado State
Sun Belt
1. Coastal Carolina
New Year’s Six Bowl
2. Appalachian State
3. Louisiana
– Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam
– One-loss teams still alive
– Unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: One Loss Teams That Have a Shot … Technically
One loss teams that have a shot … technically
Run the table and finish the season with one loss and a conference championship, and that should get the job done. If any of these teams win out and take a Power Five championship, it’ll be almost a near-certain lock to get in. Lose again, though, and that’s it.
Clemson (7-1)
When it’ll all be over: Can the Tigers get healthy? Clemson is still Clemson, but the battle with Boston College and now the loss to Notre Dame are concerning. The still have to go to Virginia Tech, Pitt is good enough to be dangerous, and a rematch with Notre Dame in the ACC Championship isn’t a given, but … it’s Clemson. It’ll be okay.
Florida (3-1)
When it’ll all be over: If it’s not this week against Georgia, then you’re going to have to wait until the SEC Championship. A two-loss season if the loss to – say, Alabama – in the title game might still get it done.
Maryland (2-1)
When it’ll all be over: Very, very soon. That was an amazing win over Penn State, and the team is playing well, but Ohio State is up next and there are still road games at Indiana and Michigan.
Miami (6-1)
When it’ll all be over: The Canes aren’t playing all that well, but they’re winning. If the trip to Virginia Tech doesn’t bring the end to the CFP dream, it’ll come at Wake Forest or against North Carolina.
Oklahoma State (5-1)
When it’ll all be over: If it’s not at Oklahoma, it’s still going to be tough with three of the last four games on the road. However, win out, beat Texas (maybe) in the Big 12 Championship, and there will at least be a little consideration.
Texas A&M (6-1)
When it’ll all be over: It might not be. With the way the team is playing, it’ll likely come down to the regular season finale against Auburn. Go 9-1, get another Florida loss somewhere, and hope for Notre Dame to lose of Clemson to drop another game, and it’s in.
– Finished. Done. Let’s go take a steam
– The Group of Five hopefuls
– Unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
NEXT: The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders …
The unbeaten College Football Playoff contenders
Going unbeaten with a Power Five championship will all but guarantee an invite into the College Football Playoff.
Alabama (6-0)
Will it happen? Yes. The Crimson Tide can afford a loss long the way and still be just fine. If it gets to the SEC Championship unbeaten and loses, it’ll still be in.
Colorado (1-0)
Will it happen? No. It was a great debut for Karl Dorrell against UCLA, but three of the next four games are on the road including dates at Stanford and USC.
Indiana (3-0)
Will it happen? No, but who thought IU would beat both Penn State and Michigan in the same season? At Michigan State, at Ohio State, at Ohio State, and home games against Maryland and Purdue … so no.
Northwestern (3-0)
Will it happen? It’s not crazy. The Wisconsin game is at home – if it can even play – and that’s about it. Northwestern can absolutely lose on the road to Purdue, Michigan State and/or Minnesota, but this is probably your leader in the Big Ten West race until we know more about the Badgers.
Notre Dame (7-0)
Will it happen? Win out, and the Irish are in – duh. However, to get into the College Football Playoff, they can’t lose two games against Boston College, North Carolina and Wake Forest on the road – we’ll blow off the Syracuse game at home – and then Clemson (most likely) in the ACC Championship.
Ohio State (3-0)
Will it happen? Yeah, and easily. The Indiana game is at home, and Michigan is no big deal now, so get by Maryland on the road – as crazy as that sounds – and it’s smooth sailing.
Oregon (1-0)
Will it happen? The Ducks should get close. The Washington game is at home and the date with Cal is on the road, but there shouldn’t be a problem with anyone else. Go 6-0, win the Pac-12 championship, and it gets interesting.
Purdue (2-0)
Will it happen? The Boilermakers got to miss Wisconsin, and the rest of the schedule really isn’t all that bad. Beat Northwestern, and then it’s on to Minnesota with a chances to be deep in the hunt for the Big Ten West.
USC (1-0)
Will it happen? Will the team play better than it did against Arizona State? The date at Utah in a few weeks will be the concern, but everything else should be a walk in the park. Like Oregon, get to 6-0, go to the Pac-12 championship, and there’s a shot.
Washington State (1-0)
Will it happen? If it’s not over against Oregon, then it will be against Stanford or USC on the road, or at home against Washington or Cal.
Wisconsin (1-0)
Will it happen? It’s close to technically being over. If Wisconsin can’t go again in any more games, it’s out of the Big Ten Championship contention. Even if that happens it can get into the CFP on a four-best team theory, but that’s a long shot. On the field, if it can get back, it has trips to Michigan, Northwestern, and Iowa, and home dates against Minnesota and Indiana.
