Who’s still alive in the chase to get into the 2021-2022 College Football Playoff? After Week 9, here’s our ranking of the 15 teams still in the mix.
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Six teams tapped out of the chase among those with a realistic shot of getting into the College Football Playoff.
There’s always something crazy that could happen, but you’re almost certainly not getting in if you’re a Power Five program with multiple losses, or a Group of Five team with one loss. It might not seem fair, and this needs to change with an expanded playoff, but that’s the deal.
Pitt, Iowa, Kentucky, Ole Miss, San Diego State, and SMU – thanks. The New Year’s Six bowls are still on the table by winning out and catching a break, but the College Football Playoff? Nah.
So now we’re down to 15 teams out of 130 who are are still alive for this thing. We rank their chances of getting in from the ones who need the most help, to the ones who still control their own respective destinies.
This isn’t a College Football Playoff ranking projection – that’s this. This is all based on likelihood of getting in and the clearest paths. Starting with the dreamiest of the dreamy …
15. UTSA Roadrunners (8-0)
It’s not happening, but with San Diego State losing to Fresno State and SMU dropping a thriller to Houston, there’s Cincinnati, there’s UTSA, and that’s it for the unbeatens among the Group of Five programs.
UTSA would need to win out against at UTEP, Southern Miss, UAB, and at North Texas – and then win the Conference USA Championship – doing it with the types of blowouts that Cincinnati isn’t getting against its weak slate. It would also need the entire Power Five conference world to melt down.
Again, it’s not happening, but getting a New Year’s Six bowl could be on the table no matter what Cincinnati does.
14. Texas A&M Aggies (6-2)
No, a two-loss team has never made it into the College Football Playoff. However, A&M has the win over Alabama – that’s the key to the dream of getting in.
Win out against Auburn, at Ole Miss, Prairie View A&M, and at LSU, and hope for one stunning defeat by Alabama somewhere – maybe against LSU on the wrong day, or Arkansas, or at Auburn – and it’s off to the SEC Championship. Win that, and no way, no how, no chance is the team that Alabama, and Georgia will be left out.
But, again, it only works with an Alabama loss somewhere.
13. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-1)
This one is totally not fair, but Notre Dame has a rock-hard Cincinnati ceiling it might not be able to bust through.
Remember, these rankings are based on who has the clearest paths and who controls their own destiny.
The Irish will be a top ten team in the College Football Playoff rankings and will move up to around the top five, but even if Cincinnati loses once, that 24-13 home loss is a killer.
Notre Dame would need to win out – Navy, at Virginia, Georgia Tech, at Stanford – and hope for a whole bunch of multi-loss Power Five champions.
Again, this about being in control, and Notre Dame isn’t as long as Cincinnati keeps winning. However, it’s the same deal for …
12. Cincinnati Bearcats (8-0)
Cincinnati is going to be in the top four of the College Football Playoff rankings at some point, if not be up there in the first batch that comes out on Tuesday, November 2nd.
Here’s the problem.
Once the entire regular season is over – including the conference championship – the College Football Playoff committee has the unwritten rule of starting with this one big question.
“Did you win your Power Five conference championship?”
That’s followed up by, “did you win going unbeaten or finish 12-1?”
DO NOT ASSUME that Cincinnati being in the top four means it’s going to stay there. It needs Wake Forest to lose – probably twice – and it will. It needs Oregon to lose – it probably will – and it can’t have Alabama winning the SEC Championship and be 12-1 along with Georgia finishing 12-1.
It can’t have an unbeaten or one-loss Big Ten champion or an unbeaten or one-loss Big 12 champion to go along with two other viable options. A whole lot of things have to go right for a 13-0 Cincinnati to get in.
For what it’s worth, we think it’ll happen, but Cincinnati doesn’t control its path, and for now, neither does …
11. Michigan Wolverines (7-1)
There’s a funky scenario that hasn’t been discussed and almost certainly won’t happen, but it’s worth a theoretical hypothetical – if that can be such a thing.
Michigan State wins out and goes 13-0, and Michigan wins out by beating Indiana, at Penn State, at Maryland, Ohio State. Because that 37-33 loss on the road to the Spartans was such a close fight – unlike, say, Texas A&M’s only loss at Alabama last year a 52-24 blowout – would both brothers get in?
That’s almost certainly not going to happen on any level. Here’s the more likely scenario, if you can buy into the idea that Michigan can beat Ohio State.
Either 1) Michigan State loses twice – with the remaining Spartans’ schedule, that’s possible; more on that in a moment – or 2) Ohio State beats Michigan State and Michigan wins out, which would then likely help the Wolverines because the win over Wisconsin would potentially be the difference in the Big Ten East tie-breaker world …
Again, more on that in a bit.
NEXT: Top 10 College Football Playoff Chase Rankings
10. Auburn Tigers (6-2)
Here’s the difference between the Texas A&M and Auburn situations. Auburn has a loss to Penn State and just the one SEC loss to Georgia. A&M has two SEC losses.
If the Tigers win out against at Texas A&M, Mississippi State, at South Carolina, and Alabama, and then they beat Georgia and avenge the 34-10 loss from back in early October, they’re in without even a hesitation.
9. Baylor Bears (7-1)
The Bears would’ve almost certainly been in the College Football Playoff in the 2019 season had they slipped by Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship.
This time around, if they beat at TCU, Oklahoma, at Kansas State, Texas Tech, and then – most likely – the Oklahoma/Oklahoma State winner in the Big 12 title game, they’re off to the College Football Playoff. However, for now, they’re behind …
8. Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-1)
The 24-14 win over Baylor is massive, but losing at Iowa State two weeks ago doesn’t leave any room for error. However, run through at West Virginia, TCU, at Texas Tech, and then it’s all about taking care of the home date with Oklahoma. And then, most likely, do it again in the Big 12 Championship.
More realistically, the Cowboys will lose to OU at least once, but end up in a New Year’s Six bowl game – likely the Sugar – as the Big 12’s representative.
7. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-1)
This is thin, but the problem is that Ohio State still doesn’t necessarily control its own destiny even if it wins out and takes the Big Ten Championship.
Michigan or Michigan State would be in if either one is the 12-1 Big Ten Champion. Ohio State, though, still has that 35-28 loss at home to Oregon it might have to overcome.
If the Ducks win out, they’re in over the Buckeyes.
If Oklahoma wins out, it’s in, too.
If Alabama and Georgia both go 12-1, they’re in, and let’s not discuss Wake Forest until we have to.
And then, even with all of that, someone in the room in Grapevine, Texas, is going to argue that Cincinnati with its lousy schedule and one good win over Notre Dame will deserve to be in over a one-loss Big Ten champion.
So it would help if there’s another loss coming for …
6. Oregon Ducks (7-1)
This team is just begging to get clocked at some point, and it’s probably going to happen at Utah on November 20th. However, if it wins out – at Washington, Washington State, at Utah, Oregon State, Pac-12 Championship – it’s in. Done. No issues, even with the loss to Stanford.
That win at Ohio State is better so far than anything anyone else has done, with all due respect to the Texas A&M win over Alabama, but that was in College Station.
NEXT: Top 5 College Football Playoff Chase Rankings
5. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (8-0)
Forget Cincinnati. THIS would be the best story to come out of the 2021 college football season if the Demon Deacons were able to make their way into the College Football Playoff.
Yeah, it would be nice, and it would happen by winning out, taking the ACC Championship, and going 13-0 – in, no questions asked. 12-1 would be trickier, but it would still likely be in, or be very, very close, and then there’s this …
At North Carolina, NC State, at Clemson, at Boston College.
There’s a loss there somewhere, probably three, but the path is clear as one of just four remaining unbeaten Power Five teams.
To be a tad more realistic on who is still in control of their College Football Playoff lives, here are the …
4. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1)
There’s zero margin for error here … maybe.
There can’t be another loss before the SEC Championship – that’s an almost certain deathblow to the chances to get in and repeat. However, the path is easy, free, and clear …
LSU, New Mexico State, Arkansas, at Auburn. Win those four games, beat Georgia in the SEC Championship, and in.
But what if Bama loses to Georgia in a classic thriller? That didn’t work for Georgia in the past – like when it lost the all-timer of a 2018 SEC Championship to Alabama and didn’t get let into the part – but Alabama is Alabama. It would be a fantastic debate, especially if it comes down to the Tide or a 13-0 Cincinnati.
3. Oklahoma Sooners (9-0)
The only question here is whether or not Oklahoma is in with one loss and a Big 12 Championship.
If it takes down at Baylor, Iowa State, and at Oklahoma State, and then beats – almost certainly – either Baylor or Oklahoma State again in the Big 12 Championship, it’s in and no worse than the 2 or 3 – it doesn’t matter between those two – seed. However …
If it drops a game, where do the 12-1 Big 12 Champion Sooners fall in the pecking order?
If everything goes to form, they would almost certainly be behind 1) Unbeaten or one-loss SEC champion, 2) Georgia if it’s 12-1 and Alabama if it’s the 12-1 SEC champion, 3) unbeaten or one-loss Big Ten champion, 4) unbeaten Wake Forest, 5) 12-1 Pac-12 champion Oregon.
And then would come the Cincinnati debate, and it wouldn’t be pretty.
The Sooners can avoid all of that by winning out.
2. Michigan State Spartans (8-0)
The Spartans just bought themselves a little breathing room with that 37-33 win over Michigan.
They can drop one of the dates against Penn State, Purdue, or Maryland and be just fine, but they probably can’t lose at Ohio State.
Forgetting for a moment that Michigan might lose again to someone other than Ohio State, in just about every realistic scenario – including a possible three-way tie on top of the East if Michigan beats Ohio State – the Spartans are in trouble if they lose in Columbus.
(Okay, so if you’re really wondering, in the three-way tie scenario it would likely come down to Big Ten records of all three’s West opponents. If things play out as expected, Michigan’s win over Wisconsin or Ohio State’s win over Minnesota would be a huge deal.)
11-1 Michigan State would have a big, big problem.
12-1 Big Ten Champion Michigan State is realistically in.
13-0 Big Ten Champion Michigan State – beating at Purdue, Maryland, at Ohio State, Penn State, and whatever comes out of the West in the Big Ten Championship – is the No. 2 seed, at worst.
1. Georgia Bulldogs (8-0)
Here’s what this 8-0 start bought Georgia.
Missouri, at Tennessee, Charleston Southern, at Georgia Tech. Win those four games, and it’s in no matter what happens in the SEC Championship.
Lose one of those games, win the SEC Championship, and in.
Win out, be the No. 1 seed, go take a national title already for the first time since 1980.
Week 9 Roundup What It All Means
CFN 1-130 Rankings | Bowl Projections
Week 9 scoreboard, all the predictions
Week 10 opening lines | AP | Coaches
College Football Playoff Top 25 Prediction
Big Game Reaction: MSU, Georgia, OSU, more
