20 key offseason topics for 2020: No. 5. How do the college football Group of Five conferences – AAC, C-USA, MAC, MW, Sun Belt – rank in the offseason?
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20 for 2020 Offseason Topics
20. Best Teams To Not Make CFP
19: Teams That Will Rebound Big
18. Teams That Will Fall Back
17: Every Power 5 Team’s Letdown Game
16. Top 5 Instant Impact New Head Coaches
15. 2nd Year Coaches Who’ll Be Better
14. Power 5 Hot Seat Coach Rankings
13. Key Transfers You Forgot About
12. Five Big Power 5 Upset Alerts
11. Great Players About To Go Nuclear
10. Group of 5 Teams In New Year’s Six Chase
9. Power 5 Sleeper Teams
8. Most Interesting Quarterback Battles
7. 5 Teams That Might Disappoint
6. 5 Teams That Might Surprise
We didn’t get spring football to get a better handle on all the teams and conferences, but here’s our look at where all the Group of Five conferences – American Athletic Conference, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West and Sun Belt – appear to be.
If and when the season gets rolling, we’ll reevaluate then.
5. Conference USA
This might seem a bit extreme considering the good teams at the top of the rock, but there’s way too much dead weight dragging down the rest of the league.
Louisiana Tech should be fantastic. Coming off a good year with the Independence Bowl win over Miami to close things out, it should be the star of the show.
Willie Taggart takes over a strong Florida Atlantic team, Marshall – as always – will be solid – and WKU and Southern Miss will be players.
UAB will once again put together a great record as it fattens up on the weak and the sad, North Texas and Middle Tennessee should bounce back a bit after clunkers, and FIU should be back in the battle for a bowl bid.
And then there’s everyone else.
UTEP is WAY overdue for a wee bit of happy.
It’s been a brutal run for the Miners, but it’s still going to be an uphill climb. Old Dominion and UTSA are starting fresh with new head coaches, and Rice is still trying to turn the corner in Year Three under Mike Bloomgren.
The midsection on down is just too mediocre-to-awful. However, there’s no real argument if you want to move Conference USA up a spot or so and knock down …
NEXT: No. 4 Offseason Group of Five Conference
4. MAC
Ask any investor, and the 2019 MAC was impossible to call on a weekly basis. It’ll be even more difficult this year.
Akron was the worst team in college football last season. There’s no chance it’ll be that bad again – it just can’t be – and Bowling Green should be a bit stronger under Scot Loeffler in his second season. However, the strength of the MAC is in its bulk mediocrity.
That’s sort of being hailed as a positive.
It would be nice if there was an alpha-dog up top to give the league an identity. but it’ll once again be a wide open race. Throw this into the “If Central Michigan could go from winless to the MAC Championship game” category.
Toledo is coming off a down year – it’s going to be good enough to win the MAC.
Buffalo is going to be good enough to win the thing, too. The same goes for Ohio, Western Michigan, and defending conference champ Miami University.
Northern Illinois is too good a program to be as lousy as it was last year in Thomas Hammock’s first season at the helm, and even with an overhaul needing to be done, Central Michigan will once again be a factor under Jim McElwain.
Throw in Eastern Michigan and it’s regular appearances on the bowl circuit, and there’s a lot to like in one of the nation’s most even leagues.
And then there’s big difference in the league from last year to this season. There just aren’t as many pathetic teams.
Ball State was okay despite a few issues, and it has a whole lot of good parts coming back. Kent State is the big kicker, going from a speed bump to a bowl winner in just two seasons under Sean Lewis.
NEXT: No. 3 Offseason Group of Five Conference
3. Sun Belt
The killers at the top make all the difference.
The MAC and Conference USA don’t have Appalachian State.
The Sun Belt is smaller than the 12-team MAC and 14-team Conference USA, so – duh – just a few great teams make the league stand out a bit more.
Texas State has to find its mojo under in Year Two under Jake Spavital – and it might. If the offense kicks in and the quarterback play is better, this will be the type of team that screws someone up on the right day.
The Bobcats have to bring up the floor, and South Alabama has to join them. It’s been a rough two years under Steve Campbell, but there shouldn’t be too many other dead-weight teams.
Coastal Carolina should at least flirt with bowl eligibility again, ULM will at least be interesting, and Troy should bounce back a bit after the transition from the Neal Brown era didn’t go so well.
If Georgia State can do that again, at least half the conference will be terrific again.
Georgia Southern managed to put up a great year even though the offense didn’t quite work like it was supposed to. If it’s just a wee bit sharper – okay, a lot sharper – the option attack will be a killer.
As always, Arkansas State is going to be great – just pencil it into a bowl game somewhere. Louisiana has somehow been able to hold on to head coach Billy Napier for at least another year, and then there’s Appalachian State.
The transition from Scott Satterfield to Eliah Drinkwitz went more than fine, and new head coach Shawn Clark is inheriting a heater. If the Mountaineers can be almost as good as they were last season, then the Sun Belt has its superstar – the early date at Wisconsin is a big deal – with a whole lot else to like.
NEXT: No. 2 Offseason Group of Five Conference
2. Mountain West
Who’ll be a true challenger for Boise State?
UNLV could never, ever turn a corner under Tony Sanchez, but there continue to be enough nice parts to hope for something to start to work under new head man Marcus Arroyo.
The league as a whole should be better with Steve Addazio taking over Colorado State and with Kalen DeBoer likely to show that 2019 was an aberration for Fresno State. Throw in Hawaii getting Todd Graham to take over, and the coaching in the new coaches in the conference are solid.
San Jose State finally is more than simply a free-space game – the passing attack should be a whole lot of fun – and Wyoming, Nevada and Utah State should be good enough to be in the bowl mix again.
Brady Hoke is taking back his old gig at San Diego State, and there’s no excuse to not keep the production from the Rocky Long era going. It should be another nasty Aztec team defensively, and not it just needs a wee bit more offense.
Air Force gets just enough back to potentially keep the production going after last year’s 11-2 run, and there’s always a surprise or two somewhere in the mix – like Hawaii last season or Fresno State a few seasons ago.
But it’s still Boise State’s conference for the taking.
And then there’s New Mexico, who tried a whole slew of things to get things working over the last few seasons under Bob Davie, and now it’s up to former Arizona State defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales to figure it out.
That’s the issue for the Mountain West. The Lobos should be better, but there isn’t a team that appears to be quite that down in the …
NEXT: No. 1 Offseason Group of Five Conference
1. American Athletic Conference
The Sun Belt might have a nice team in Appalachian State, and good one in Louisiana.
Boise State is a major player from the Mountain West, and the MAC and Conference USA will come up with their share of upsets, but the American Athletic Conference have more high end teams than anyone else, and there should be more.
Tulsa was better than the 4-8 record – the schedule was brutal – and East Carolina was a major problem for Cincinnati and SMU in wild shootouts. A little more defense would be nice for both of them, but if they’re your questionable teams – especially with the dead weight of UConn gone – your conference is okay.
And let’s just assume new USF head coach Jeff Scott will do a little more with a team that couldn’t find any consistent offensive production throughout last season.
Everyone else in the league went bowling last season – except for Houston.
The first season under Dana Holgorsen ended on September 19th when Tulane pulled a thriller out of the fire. However, there’s too much talent, and Holgorsen is too good, for the Cougars to come up with another 4-8ish clunker.
Tulane will be good again, SMU’s offense will keep on rolling – even if the D is going to be an issue – and Navy’s 2019 showed that 2018 was just a blip in the Ken Niumatalolo era. All three should be in the bowl mix again.
Temple might have bombed its bowl game, but Rod Carey put together a great season in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year.
And then there are the big guys – and Temple, Houston and Navy could be up in this range, too.
Ryan Silverfield is inheriting a heater of a Memphis team that should be every bit as strong as last year’s version that got the New Year’s Six nod. Cincinnati has a brutal schedule, but Luke Fickell has his best team yet, and UCF is still UCF.
All three of those teams might be better than anyone in the other Group of Five conferences.
