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Dan Lyons

College Football Conference Championship Tracker: What All Nine Games Mean for CFP

The college football postseason is here. After 14 wild weeks, the conference championships kick off on Friday night, and will play a huge role in determining which 12 programs will take part in the College Football Playoff.

We can be pretty certain about two-thirds of the field. Ohio State and Indiana are in, no matter who wins the Big Ten championship, and Oregon will join them as an at-large. In the SEC, Georgia is safe regardless of Saturday’s championship game, and Ole Miss, Oklahoma and Texas A&M should already have their flights booked. Alabama is probably safe, though we’ll dive in on what lies ahead for the Crimson Tide, who face the Bulldogs in Atlanta, below. Texas Tech will make the CFP regardless of the Big 12 championship.

That leaves one or two at-large bids, depending on Alabama’s fate, the American champion and a fifth conference champion—likely from the ACC, though chaos could reign if Duke wins that game, opening the door for a second Group of 5 program to earn an automatic bid to the field. Meanwhile, Miami is waiting in the wings, hoping that its head-to-head win over Notre Dame will finally come into play.

Let’s dive into the full conference championship schedule and how each matchup factors into the CFP race.

This story will be updated live as games are decided. Check back here for an up-to-date look at results of the conference championship slate and how they may impact the College Football Playoff race.

Full conference championship schedule

Date/Time/Channel (ET) Conference Home Away Location
Dec. 5, 7 p.m.; ESPN Sun Belt No. 25 James Madison (11–1) Troy (8–4) Bridgeforth Stadium (Harrisonburg, Va.)
Dec. 5, 7 p.m.; CBSSN Conference USA Jacksonville State Kennesaw State (9–3) AmFirst Stadium (Jacksonville, Ala.)
Dec. 5, 8 p.m.; ABC American No. 20 Tulane (10–2) No. 24 North Texas (10–2) Yulman Stadium (New Orleans)
Dec. 5, 8 p.m.; Fox Mountain West Boise State (8–4) UNLV (10–2) Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
Dec. 6, 12 p.m.; ABC Big 12 No. 4 Texas Tech (11–1) No. 11 BYU (11–1) AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
Dec. 6, 12 p.m.; ESPN MAC Western Michigan (8–4) Miami (Ohio) (7–5) Ford Field (Detroit)
Dec. 6, 4 p.m.; ABC SEC No. 9 Alabama (10–2) No. 3 Georgia (11–1) Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Dec. 6, 8 p.m.; Fox Big Ten No. 1 Ohio State (12–0) No. 2 Indiana (12–0) Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
Dec. 6, 8 p.m.; ABC ACC No. 17 Virginia (10–2) Duke (7–5) Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte)
Tulane Green Wave defensive linemen Eliyt Nairne tackles Mississippi Rebels running back Logan Diggs.
Tulane’s solid defense will be tasked with stopping an explosive North Texas offense in order to reach the College Football Playoff. | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

American Conference

Matchup: Tulane vs. North Texas — Location: Yulman Stadium, New Orleans; Friday, December 5, 8 p.m. ET; ABC

Two programs are hoping to extend their last ride with their respective coaches, as North Texas (11–1, 7–1 American) is set to lose Eric Morris to Oklahoma State once the Mean Green season ends, while Tulane (10–2, 7–1 American) will lose Jon Sumrall to Florida. The two sides did not meet during the regular season.

The American title game is a straightforward win-and-in situation for both UNT and the Green Wave. With both teams in the latest selection committee Top 25 rankings, the American champion will likely be the fifth-highest ranked conference champion, and in line for the 12-seed, though it could wind up in the No. 11 spot if Duke beats Virginia to win the ACC, potentially pushing the Blue Devils or an additional Group of 5 champion into the No. 12 spot. More on those scenarios later.

Tulane will host Friday night’s game, but North Texas is a narrow 2.5-point favorite to win the matchup.

Duke quarterback Darian Mensah sets to throw as Virginia defensive lineman Jacob Holmes gives pressure.
Darian Mensah and Duke will try and create serious chaos in college football by knocking off Virginia on Saturday. | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Atlantic Coast Conference

Matchup: Virginia vs. Duke — Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte; Saturday, December 6, 8 p.m. ET; ABC

Duke (7–5, 6–2 ACC) has a chance to be the ultimate college football chaos agent on Saturday evening, as it attempts to win the ACC despite having five losses to its name already.

The Blue Devils, who reached the title game thanks to a Kafkaesque set of tiebreakers set up by the ACC that ultimately came into play with the league’s expansion to 17 teams and dissolution of divisions, are no guarantee to go to the CFP even with a win—No. 25 James Madison currently ranks ahead of them and is a significant favorite to win the Sun Belt title, so it is hard to see a scenario in which Duke jumps the Dukes in the pecking order. If JMU loses, Duke’s main competition would likely be the Mountain West champion, especially if UNLV beats Boise State.

Meanwhile, Virginia (10–2, 7–1 ACC) will be in the College Football Playoff and projected as the No. 11 seed with a win.

These two teams faced off back on November 15, a 34–17 road win for the Cavaliers. The Hoos defense held the Blue Devils to just 42 rushing yards and star quarterback Darian Mensah to 217 yards, one passing touchdown and a pretty inefficient 6.1 yards per attempt. Virginia QB Chandler Morris was up-and-down, with 316 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions, but UVA ran for 224 yards, with J'Mari Taylor rolling for 133 yards and a pair of scores. Even with that recent result, Virginia is just a four-point favorite on Saturday.

Texas Tech Red Raiders linebacker Jacob Rodriguez talks with quarterback Behren Morton.
Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez has garnered Heisman buzz for his role on the elite Red Raiders defense. | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

Big 12 Conference

Matchup: Texas Tech vs. BYU — Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas; Saturday, December 6, 12 p.m. ET; ABC

Texas Tech (11–1, 8–1 Big 12) is likely in no matter what happens on Saturday at Jerry World, thanks to a No. 4 ranking and overall impressive résumé. That includes a win over BYU (11–1, 8–1 Big 12) in Lubbock back on Nov. 8. The Cougars, would be in with a win, but almost certainly out with a loss. At No. 11, BYU is currently one place behind Notre Dame for the final at-large spot in the CFP.

Defense dominated the day in the first matchup between the Red Raiders and Cougars, with the Texas Tech defense holding BYU to just 255 yards. The Cougars were just 3-of-14 on third downs, and freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier was held to an unimpressive 4.9 yards per attempt, with one touchdown pass and an interception. The Red Raiders also dominated on special teams, with Stone Harrington accounting for 17 points on 5-of-5 field goals and 2-of-2 extra points. His Cougars counterpart Will Ferrin missed his only field goal attempt, punter Sam Vander Haar shanked his first punt of the day and return man Parker Kingston muffed a Texas Tech punt, leading to a field goal for the Red Raiders.

Texas Tech is a 12.5-point favorite in the rematch.

Julian Sayin takes a snap under center for the Ohio State Buckeyes at the Michigan Wolverines.
Ohio State’s Julian Sayin is playing for Heisman positioning and the Buckeyes’ first Big Ten title since 2020. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Big Ten Conference

Matchup: Indiana vs. Ohio State — Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis; Saturday, December 6, 8 p.m. ET; Fox

There is plenty on the line for Ohio State (12–0, 9–0 Big Ten) and Indiana (12–0, 9–0 Big Ten) in Saturday’s Big Ten championship—just not much to do with the playoff.

The Buckeyes and Hoosiers are both locks to make the field, and barring a huge blowout, it is hard to see either team falling out of the top four seeds, which will land a first-round bye. If the margin is tight, the loser may even stay in the No. 2 seed—or potentially fall to No. 3 behind Georgia, should the Bulldogs win the SEC. It would take a true blowout for one of these teams to fall to No. 5.

The game pits two Heisman favorites, OSU quarterback Julian Sayin and Indiana QB Francisco Mendoza, in a head-to-head matchup a week before college football’s most prestigious award is announced. Ohio State hasn’t won the Big Ten since 2020, a long slump for the dominant Buckeyes program. Indiana hasn’t won the league since 1967, and is making its first appearance in the conference championship game.

There is still plenty to tune in for—it is No. 1 vs. No. 2, of course—but in terms of the CFP, this is one of this weekend’s games with the lowest stakes. Ohio State is a four-point favorite to win the conference title.

Kennesaw State's Gerard Bullock Jr. tries to evade the tackle of Jacksonville State's Tyrin Taylor and Isaac Walker.
Kennesaw State and Jacksonville State have been two of the better stories in the Group of 5 this season. | Dave Hyatt / Hyatt Media LLC / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Conference USA

Matchup: Jacksonville State vs. Kennesaw State — Location: AmFirst Stadium, Jacksonville, Ala.; Friday, December 5, 7 p.m. ET; CBS Sports Network

You have to really squint to find a playoff angle for the CUSA final, but let’s try. Because the selection committee did not rank teams beyond No. 25 James Madison, we don’t know where most of the Group of 5 championship participants stand in the pecking order, should chaos happen on Friday and Saturday. If the JMU and Virginia lose, it could be the aforementioned ACC spoiler Duke in the final playoff spot, but the Blue Devils aren’t ranked either. If Boise State also beats UNLV in an ugly game and Kennesaw State (9–3, 7–1 CUSA) dominates Jacksonville State (8–4, 7–1 CUSA) to get to 10 wins on the season, can the Owls find their way to the fifth conference championship spot? The odds are probably infintesimal, but that is only scenario in which we could find a way for a Conference USA team to make the dance. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Owls a 0.4% chance of reaching the playoff, which feels generous.

Beyond pie-in-the-sky CFP discussions, KSU and Jax State should be celebrated for pretty remarkable seasons. The Owls went just 2–10 last year and fired longtime coach Brian Bohannon, making their 2024 move up to FBS look questionable. New coach Jerry Mack, the former running backs coach at Tennessee and with the NFL’s Jaguars, has engineered one of the best turnarounds in the sport in 2025. Last season, the Gamecocks won Conference USA under Rich Rodriguez, who proceeded to jump to his old program—West Virginia—taking a number of players with him, while numerous others left for opportunities elsewhere. The portal cuts both ways, though, and new coach Charles Kelly did a remarkable job in restocking the roster with talent. Now he and Mack lead a pair of teams that have joined FBS over the last three years in a conference title matchup.

Jax State won the No. 15 matchup between the two teams, 35–26, with the Gamecocks dynamic rushing duo of running back Cam Cook and quarterback Caden Creel combining for 259 yards and three scores. KSU had 217 yards and two touchdowns on the ground of their own, but quarterback Amari Odom was picked off three times in the loss. Even with that result, and Jax State hosting the title game, Kennesaw State is a 2.5-point favorite on Friday night.

Miami (Ohio) RedHawks coach Chuck Martin celebrates after defeating the Colorado State Rams at the Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl.
Miami (Ohio) coach Chuck Martin could win his third MAC title on Saturday against Western Michigan. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Mid-American Conference

Matchup: Western Michigan vs. Miami (Ohio) — Location: Ford Field, Detroit; Saturday, December 6, 12 p.m. ET; ESPN

No squinting required here—the MAC title game is all about the MAC title. Western Michigan (8–4, 7–1 MAC) finished as the only one-loss team in the conference. That one loss came to Miami (Ohio) (7–5, 6–2), which reached Detroit on tiebreakers.

Miami’s Chuck Martin has been one of the G5’s most unsung coaches, but could win his third MAC title (2019, 2023) with a win on Saturday. WMU’s Lance Taylor is coaching for his first, and has elevated the Broncos in each year with the program.

RedHawks quarterback Dequan Finn led the way in the first matchup between these two sides, throwing for 260 yards and a score, but he abruptly left the program in November. Thomas Gotkowski stepped in for Miami’s most recent win over Ball State, completing only 50% of his throws but racking up 226 yards and three touchdowns. His WMU counterpart Broc Lowry is a true dual-threat, with 1,572 passing yards and 875 rushing yards and 21 total touchdowns. He had 253 total yards and a score in the loss to Miami on Oct. 25.

Western Michigan is a 1.5-point favorite.

UNLV quarterback Anthony Colandrea looks to throw against Nevada.
Anthony Colandrea has over 3,500 total yards and 30 touchdowns for UNLV this year. | Tom R. Smedes/Special to the RGJ / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Mountain West Conference

Matchup: Boise State vs. UNLV — Location: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho; Friday, December 5, 8 p.m. ET; Fox

The Mountain West ended with a four-way tie at 6–2, leading to a tiebreaker determined by a composite average of various metrics. As a result, New Mexico and San Diego State are out, and Boise State (8–4, 6–2 MWC) will host UNLV (10–2, 6–2 MWC). The Mountain West champion is probably a non-factor when it comes to the CFP, though if the Rebels win, they may have a pathway that is definitely less unlikely than the Conference USA situation outlined above. If Duke wins the ACC and JMU loses the Sun Belt, an 11–2 UNLV team coming off of a win at Boise State may rank ahead of an 8–5 Blue Devils squad, and could crash the party. FPI actually has the Broncos with a 2.5% chance of reaching the playoff, ahead of the Rebels’ 1.4% chance, but an eight-win Duke team with a victory over Virginia would, in all likelihood, rank ahead of a 9–4 Boise State team whose best wins would be against UNLV and who lost three games by double-digits against fellow Group of 5 programs.

The Broncos’ most impressive showing of the year was a 56–31 Oct. 18 home win over the Rebels on the blue turf. Boise State’s running back room showed out, rushing for 291 yards and three scores, led by 201 yards for Dylan Riley. Maddux Madsen, who threw for 253 yards and four touchdowns in the win, has been out for a month with a leg injury, but is expected back for Friday night’s game. He’ll look to outduel UNLV’s Anthony Colandrea once again. The Virginia transfer has 3,605 all-purpose yards and 30 touchdowns (22 passing, eight rushing) on the season.

The Broncos are 5.5-point favorites on Friday night.

Ty Simpson waves to fans after leading the Alabama Crimson Tide to a win over the Georgia Bulldogs.
Ty Simpson led Alabama to a 24–21 win over Georgia earlier in the season. | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Southeastern Conference

Matchup: Georgia vs. Alabama — Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta; Saturday, December 6, 4 p.m. ET; ABC

A rematch of one of the season’s great games will take place in Atlanta on Saturday, as Georgia (11–1, 7–1 SEC) looks to lock up a first-round bye and avenge its loss to Alabama (10–2, 7–1 SEC). The Crimson Tide, which flipped spots with Notre Dame to jump to No. 9 in Tuesday’s CFP rankings, despite a tight win over Auburn last week, still find themselves in a precarious position. Last year, SMU was not penalized for its loss in the ACC championship to Clemson, and made the field as an at-large. Analysts have offered the possibility that the jump over Notre Dame indicates that Alabama are in the same situation ahead of Saturday’s game. If Georgia dominates, however, there is certainly an argument for the Tide—who haven’t put together a complete game against a quality opponent since a mid-October win over Tennessee—to drop below the Fighting Irish and/or Miami. Add in Kirby Smart’s struggles against Kalen DeBoer over the last two seasons, you shouldn’t expect either team to take its foot off the gas.

Alabama won an impressive road game at Georgia on Sept. 27, taking down the Dawgs 24–21. The Crimson Tide defense held UGA to 357 total yards of offense, while Ty Simpson impressed with 276 yards and a pair of scores. The onus will be on him once again; Alabama managed just 3.1 yards per carry last time around and have struggled to run the ball consistently all year. Now, they will be without top running back Jam Miller in the SEC title game.

Georgia is a 2.5-point favorite in the rematch.

James Madison Dukes head coach Bob Chesney talks with tight end Lacota Dippre during a game against the Louisville Cardinals.
James Madison coach Bob Chesney is set to take over the UCLA program, but will first lead the Dukes in the postseason. | Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

Sun Belt Conference

Matchup: James Madison vs. Troy — Location: Bridgeforth Stadium, Harrisonburg, Va.; Friday, December 5, 7 p.m. ET; ESPN

Bob Chesney will take over the UCLA program in 2026, hoping to resurrect the Bruins and contend in the Big Ten, the way his predecessor Curt Cignetti has done at Indiana. But first, he will lead James Madison (11–1, 8–0 SBC) in the Sun Belt title game and, potentially, the College Football Playoff. First up: a game against Troy (8–4, 6–2 SBC).

By ranking the Dukes at No. 25, the CFP committee signaled that they have a real chance of jumping into the fifth automatic bid spot, should Virginia fall to Duke in the ACC. FPI has that result as a true coin flip, giving JMU a 50% chance of making the playoff. Even if that is a bit high, considering Virginia’s solid win at Duke a few weeks ago, James Madison’s CFP chances are very real.

Friday night’s game is not a rematch. The two programs last played in 2023, when the Cignetti-led Dukes beat the Sumrall-led Trojans 16–14. James Madison is by far the biggest favorite of conference championship weekend, with the spread at -23.5.

College Football Playoff Top 25 entering conference championship weekend

Rank Team Change From Last Week
1 Ohio State None
2 Indiana None
3 Georgia +1
4 Texas Tech +1
5 Oregon +1
6 Mississippi +1
7 Texas A&M -4
8 Oklahoma None
9 Alabama +1
10 Notre Dame -1
11 BYU None
12 Miami None
13 Texas +3
14 Vanderbilt None
15 Utah -2
16 USC +1
17 Virginia +1
18 Arizona +7
19 Michigan -4
20 Tulane +4
21 Houston NR
22 Georgia Tech +1
23 Iowa NR
24 North Texas None
25 James Madison NR

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This article was originally published on www.si.com as College Football Conference Championship Tracker: What All Nine Games Mean for CFP.

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