If Monday night’s national championship took place a month ago, Ohio State might have entered the contest as a two touchdown underdog to Pac-12 champion Oregon.
Mired in uncertainty after a season-ending injury to JT Barrett, the Buckeyes pinned their title hopes on third-string quarterback Cardale Jones. Ranked fifth in the final College Football Playoff standings before Conference Championship weekend, Ohio State needed to leapfrog TCU to even qualify for the four-team playoff.
Oregon, meanwhile, ended the regular season on an eight-game winning streak while averaging 48 points per game. But following a 59-20 victory over Florida State on New Year’s Day, the Ducks have lost two of their top receivers – freshmen Devon Allen (knee) and Darren Carrington, who will miss the game after violating an NCAA policy. Oregon remained a seven-point favorite after the announcement. “We started out the year in fall camp losing arguably two of our three best offensive players,” Mark Helfrich said. “If all we did was complain about that we wouldn’t be here.”
Here’s our positional breakdown of the national title game.
Quarterback
Jones, a brawny 6-5, 250 pound sophomore, will be making just his third start. While Jones does not possess the dual-threat abilities of Barrett, he has flashed a strong arm and has created plays with his legs when necessary. In a 59-0 win over Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship, Jones displayed accuracy and poise in delivering three deep touchdown passes to wideout Devin Smith. All three went for 39 yards or longer. He will have to do more of the same against Oregon.
Ducks quarterback Marcus Mariota entered the Rose Bowl with a nearly flawless resume. Despite accounting for 400 total yards and three touchdowns in the win, Mariota was widely criticized for his performance against the Seminoles. Questions arose on Mariota’s downfield accuracy, as he attempted several ill-advised passes across his body and completed only 3 of 8 attempts on throws that traveled 25 yards or more. Mariota also displayed a proclivity for relying on short dump-offs: he threw nearly half of his first 24 passes behind the line of scrimmage. Still, Mariota showed why he could be the best college quarterback in years in reading opposing defenses. On both touchdowns to Carrington, Mariota set up the defense with underneath passes earlier in the series to give his wideout a sizeable cushion. Mariota should be less nervous in his second playoff game and return to his normal self.
Edge: Oregon
Running back
Ohio State sophomore Ezekiel Elliott has averaged 9.0 yards per carry in his last three games while becoming the first running back in school history to rush for consecutive 200-yard games. It’s a feat that eluded Heisman Trophy winners Archie Griffin and Eddie George. Elliott displayed a combination of power and athleticism on a 54-yard run in the Sugar Bowl against Alabama, when he stiffed armed one defender and hurdled another along the right sideline. The Buckeyes could look to keep the ball away from Mariota’s high-tempo offense by pounding it on the ground with Elliott.
Oregon freshman Royce Freeman is the primary runner in the Ducks’ backfield, but he received a much needed boost in the Rose Bowl with the return of sophomore Thomas Tyner. After missing the prior three games with a shoulder injury, Tyner rushed for 124 yards and two touchdowns against Florida State. Freeman is the quicker, shiftier of the two, while Tyner is a straight ahead battering ram who can easily break tackles.
Edge: Ohio State
Wide receiver and tight end
Few teams could absorb the loss of receivers of the caliber of Allen and Carrington as much as Oregon. Mariota still has Byron Marshall and rangy wideout Dwayne Stanford at his disposal. Senior Keanon Lowe, who went without a catch against Florida State, will need to elevate his game. At tight end, sophomore Evan Baylis produced the game of his career in Pasadena with six catches for 73 yards. If Baylis can muscle his way past linebackers again for critical extra yards, he could be a handful for the Buckeyes.
Devin Smith has established himself as a veritable deep threat for Jones. Smith has top-end speed and strong ball skills to make adjustments on errant throws. Sophomore Michael Thomas used incredible body control to stay in bounds on a sprawling 13-yard touchdown in the Sugar Bowl. Thomas is a threat on intermediate routes. Sophomore H-Back Dontre Wilson could return after missing the last six games with a broken foot. Buckeyes senior tight end Jeff Heuerman ranks second on the Buckeyes’ roster with a 36.5 inch vertical leap and has the ability to win jump balls. Smith (upper respiratory) and Heuerman (ankle) have dealt with ailments this week, but are both expected to play.
Edge: Even
Offensive line
Ohio State offensive line coach Ed Warinner received 2014 national offensive line coach of the year honors from FootballScoop.com. Warinner has a durable, veteran line led by junior tackle Taylor Decker and center Jacoby Boren. The Buckeyes’ line has created wide gaps for Elliott over the last two games that resulted in a pair of 80-plus yard touchdown runs.
While Mariota releases the ball quickly he has still been sacked 29 times on the season. In Mariota’s previous two years, he was only sacked 35 times combined. Senior center Hroniss Grasu and tackle Jake Fisher both earned First-Team All-Pac 12 honors. Grasu and his teammates will look to debunk the misconception that their line is too soft at times.
Edge: Ohio State
Defensive front seven
The Ducks have a pair of mammoth defensive ends in juniors Arik Armstead (6ft 8in, 290 pounds) and DeForest Buckner (6ft 7in, 290 pounds). Jones must avoid batted balls at the line. Jameis Winston took the blame for an interception against the Ducks when a tipped pass by Buckner led to a turnover. Oregon senior linebacker Derrick Malone also changed the tone of the game with a strip of Dalvin Cook early in the third quarter.
Earlier in the week, Grasu described the Buckeyes as the toughest front he will face this season. Since Week 9, Ohio State are tied with Arizona State for the most sacks in the nation with 27. Defensive end Joey Bosa and defensive tackle Michael Bennett will look to pressure Mariota. Buckeyes linebacker Darron Lee was named Defensive MVP of the Sugar Bowl after he recorded two sacks and three tackles for loss.
Edge: Even
Secondary
Oregon corners Chris Seisay and Dior Mathis played admirably against Florida State in the absence of injured All-American defensive back Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, who is out for the season. Expect ball-hawking safety Erick Dargan to be all over the field. Dargan, who leads Oregon in tackles, will be counted on to help contain Elliott. After containing Rashad Greene and Nick O’Leary 11 days ago, the Oregon secondary will face another task against Smith and Heuerman.
Ohio State have a pair of smart, physical cornerbacks in Doran Grant and Eli Apple. Buckeyes safety Vonn Bell is regarded for his work ethic in the film room and for his knack for making plays on the ball.
Ohio State rank 36th in FBS in pass defense, while Oregon are 120th. The Ducks score at such a quick rate on offense, though, that their defense spends an inordinate amount of time on the field.
Edge: Ohio State
Special teams
Wilson and freshman Jalin Marshall are a pair of dangerous returners for Ohio State. Buckeyes kicker Sean Nuemberger has missed seven field goals, including two from inside 30 yards. Punter Cameron Johnston has an astounding 16 punts of 50 yards or more.
Oregon freshman Charles Nelson has two touchdowns on punt returns this season. With Allen out, Nelson and Marshall could handle kick return duties. Kicker Aidan Schneider has made 9 of 10 field goals, but hasn’t attempted a kick beyond 50 yards. Ian Wheeler averages 39 yards per punt.
Edge: Even
Coaches
If Ohio State coach Urban Meyer is victorious on Monday, he and Nick Saban will be the only coaches in FBS history to win national titles with two different schools. Meyer has rarely lost in his illustrious career when given at least 10 days to prepare for an opponent. While Mark Helfrich doesn’t have the credentials of Chip Kelly, the Ducks’ high-tempo offense hasn’t skipped a beat under the second-year coach. With 24 wins in his first 27 games, Helfrich has the best winning percentage to open a career of any Pac-12 coach in more than 60 years. Will Helfrich’s lack of experience be too much for Oregon to overcome against the seasoned Meyer?
Edge Ohio State
Prediction: Oregon 41-38 Ohio State. While Ohio State have the advantage in several categories, the Buckeyes don’t have a player with the star power or skill-set to change the game as much as Mariota. Ohio State have also not faced an offense with the quick-strike ability of Oregon all season. In a close, tight game Mariota can orchestrate a long, game-winning drive in a flash. This season, more than 60% of the Ducks’ touchdown drives (51 of 84) have lasted 2 minutes and 15 seconds or less. Mariota’s presence might be the difference.
- Follow the Championship game live, with the Guardian’s minute-by-minute coverage tonight from 8pm
