What I think, know and believe about the college football world, what will happen the rest of the season, and are Cincinnati and BYU THAT good? All in the latest College Football Cavalcade.
Sorry if this column sucks, it’s not my fault …
Along with Jim Harbaugh, James Franklin, Kirby Smart, Jeremy Pruitt, Chip Kelly, Will Mushchamp, Les Miles, Lovie Smith, and for just over 57 minutes, Clay Helton, Twitter wanted the column fired at some point on Saturday.
– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak
– Check out all the past Cavalcades
– You REALLY like BYU & Cincinnati?
– Group of Five program reality
– The College Football Playoff will be, in …
I Think, I Know, I Believe
– 5 Footballey Opinions
– Sure-Thing Picks of the Century
However, watch how quickly it all goes from cute to really, really, really annoying …
Puff that chest out this week you Indiana fans, you.
Northwestern fans, you chirp over a 3-0 start with the hope of going to a second Big Ten championship in three years.
Liberty fans, you go annoy the hell – sorry, heck – out of those Virginia Tech people you work with.
Coastal Carolina fans, you get to point out that not all teams from South Carolina lost this weekend.
Tulsa, dream of possibly playing in the American Athletic Conference Championship and being a factor again for the first time since 2016.
Arkansas fans, you WOO PIG your butts off after what you did to Tennessee.
Cincinnati fans, your team is going to really and truly be in the College Football Playoff discussion.
Maryland fans, you bask in the glory of a magical last five quarters of college football including the first win over Penn State since 1961. Rutgers fans, enjoy that you beat the team that beat Michigan and have as many victories as the Wolverines.
UTEP fans, your team is 3-3. UTSA fans, your team is 4-4. Kansas fans, your team is … Kansas fans, basketball season is around the corner.
We all focus on the Alabamas, Ohio States and Clemsons of the college football world, but what gets lost in the narrative is how miserable an existence it is to be a superfan of a blue-blood powerhouse program.
Really, have you ever met an Ohio State fan who’s truly happy? Winning the Big Ten title like the team did last year would be reason for parades at most programs, but the only thing Buckeye fans remember is the loss to Clemson in the College Football Playoff.
Really, have you ever met an Alabama fan who’s able to enjoy the moment? Win an SEC championship and throw it on the pile – it doesn’t matter without a national title. Even then, it’s all about whether or not the Tide can win it next year, too.
So in this year of so much unhappiness, let’s celebrate the unbridled joy experienced by the fan bases of so many afterthought programs.
With all that said, fans of some of those teams, please stop reading now.
I don’t like being the person who yucks anyone’s yum (that’s a TOTAL lie), but …
– You REALLY like BYU & Cincinnati?
– Group of Five program reality
– The College Football Playoff will be, in …
I Think, I Know, I Believe
– 5 Footballey Opinions
– Sure-Thing Picks of the Century
NEXT: You REALLY think BYU and Cincinnati are that good?
BELIEVE me, when it happens, you aren’t too keen on the random Power Five program getting that fourth spot, either
America, you gush all over Cincinnati, saying it could play with or beat anyone.
You say it really is the seventh-best team in college football, all while also swooning over BYU, but there’s one problem that no one wants to talk about …
Cincinnati and BYU haven’t really played anyone.
A few things can be true at once.
Could Cincinnati and BYU hang with anyone? This year? Sure.
Should they really be getting so much love for their dominant blowout wins? Sort of, but it helps when you play a schedule full of meh.
To quote Thornton Melon, “if you want to look thin, hang out with fat people.”
I know this offends everyone’s sensibilities, but you’re not Group of Five-shaming to call out SMU, Memphis and Houston for merely being teams that play college football – no more, no less.
Cincinnati beat those three, Austin Peay, Army, and USF – oooooh “The Fields Medal The Fields Medal,” let’s put the Bearcats in the College Football Playoff!
Cincinnati won’t play a Power Five team this year until – most likely – the bowl season.
Meanwhile, BYU – through absolutely no fault of its own, because the program doesn’t duck anyone, and had a fantastic schedule blown away because of the changes this year – has beaten Navy, Troy, Louisiana Tech, UTSA, Houston, Texas State, WKU, and a Boise State team without its starting backfield.
Well who doesn’t do that?
Who else goes 8-0 and looks amazing against that slate?
But fine. I actually do think Cincinnati and BYU are really good, but that’s the point … I THINK they’re good.
Iowa State is rolling, going 5-2 with a tough 24-21 loss at Oklahoma State. Who else did it lose to?
Louisiana, handing the Cyclones a 31-14 loss in Ames.
The lone Ragin’ Cajun loss was 30-27 to a Coastal Carolina team that’s unbeaten – and has a Power Five win, at least technically, over Kansas – and yet no one in either poll seems to know or care with Iowa State ranked higher than Louisiana.
And then there’s Liberty, who’s unbeaten and just beat Virginia Tech in Blacksburg for its second Power Five win – and yes, Syracuse is still an ACC team.
Meanwhile, BYU and Cincinnati each beat a 2-3 Houston – UC got the Cougars without some key parts – and everyone is crowning their respective asses.
– You have fun, fans of new big teams
– Group of Five program reality
– The College Football Playoff will be, in …
I Think, I Know, I Believe
– 5 Footballey Opinions
– Sure-Thing Picks of the Century
NEXT: Group of Five teams: it’s all about the schedules
And I’ll be writing this exact same thing in 2041, too.
I really should take and republish the exact same thing I wrote in various articles, fueling email and message board battles with Tulane fans back in 1998.
And with Marshall fans in 1999.
And with BYU fans in 2001 – I owe former Hawaii QB Nick Roloivich at least three beers for the 72-45 win over the Cougars that ended a two-month all-in-good-fun brawl – and with Hawaii fans in 2007, and with UCF and Boise State fans over the years, and with TCU fans back in the Mountain West days of the late 2000s, and with Houston fans in 2011 and 2015 – however, they did have a theoretical point that I was on board with in 2016, when the team beat Baker Mayfield’s Oklahoma and later took down Lamar Jackson’s Louisville – and with fans of EVERY Group of Five program whose team gets off to a hot start.
Really, really good Group of Five programs in the right season can absolutely hang with and/or beat just about anyone on any day. However, Power Five programs have to win those games, and then they play more games against Power Five programs.
It always amazes me when people don’t like to accept the talent disparity up and down the Power Five conferences compared to the Group of Five.
Recruiting rankings are hardly the be-all-end-all, but check through the last 20+ years on any of the recruiting sites and find the Group of Five programs that get anywhere close to the same prospect talents – ever.
Go through the history of the NFL Draft, especially recently, and roughly 40% of the whole thing is made up of SEC and Big Ten players. Throw in an Oklahoma here, a USC there, and a Clemson and Florida State all over the place, and there it is. There’s your annual haul of the best of the best players.
Of course that doesn’t mean a Cincinnati or BYU this season couldn’t finish well in any of the Power Five conferences. On the contrary, I’ll put up either of those two against anyone in the Big 12 this season, and give them a more-than-fighting shot in the Pac-12. But the harsh reality is that they simply don’t get that chance, and in a College Football Playoff world based on what a panel of judges thinks, along with the data they have at their disposal, it’s not going to work.
If you want to argue that there needs to be a way for a BYU or Cincinnati to play its way into an expanded CFP, I’m your guy. I’ll take up that fight all day long. But at the moment, it’s not fair.
It’s not fair to Texas A&M, who has a ten-game schedule against all SEC teams full of – duh – SEC talent.
Could BYU or Cincinnati beat Florida? Yeah, maybe. That’s great … but did you beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa the week before? Do you have to deal with Auburn on the road, or go to South Carolina and Tennessee in back-to-back weeks?
It’s not fair to Indiana, who has an eight-game schedule against all Big Ten teams full of – duh – Big Ten talent.
Could BYU or Cincinnati beat Penn State and Michigan? Yeah, maybe. That’s great … but do you have to deal with a road trip to Michigan State next, and then go to Ohio State, and later on down the road go to Wisconsin?
EVERY YEAR this has to keep being stressed, and EVERY YEAR the college football media types who should know better fall for the teams that look great against the mediocre – it’s not about one big game. It’s about the body-blow-accumulation grind of week after week after week of playing against teams with enough talent and the resources to get you on the right day.
It’s not about avoiding one big bomb; it’s about sidestepping a whole slew of landmines.
– You have fun, fans of new big teams
– You REALLY like BYU & Cincinnati?
– The College Football Playoff will be, in …
I Think, I Know, I Believe
– 5 Footballey Opinions
– Sure-Thing Picks of the Century
NEXT: I Think, I Know, I Believe …
America’s newest family-friendly fun-time … Think, Know, Believe
In a very special edition of Think, Know, Believe, with just over a month to go, here’s what’s going to happen over the rest of your 2020 college football season.
I think a whole slew of big upsets are about to happen.
I know there are always a whole slew of big upsets late in the year as the pressure mounts for the top teams every single season.
I believe Cincinnati will lose one of its last three games, all on the road, against UCF, Temple or Tulsa.
I think Clemson is hardly a lock to get through the last three regular season games against at Florida State, Pitt, and at Virginia Tech clean – especially Virginia Tech.
I know Clemson is Clemson, and I’m always going to pick it to win in the ACC until it doesn’t on a regular basis.
I believe Clemson trucks Notre Dame in the ACC Championship.
I think Florida is going to roll through Arkansas, at Vanderbilt, Kentucky, at Tennessee, LSU to go to the SEC Championship.
I know Kentucky might be the fly in the ointment.
I believe Florida will have the College Football Playoff right there for the taking, but will lose to Alabama in the SEC Championship.
I think Texas A&M – as long as the current COVID issues are fine – will somewhat quietly roll through at Tennessee, Ole Miss, and LSU over the next three weeks.
I know the regular season finale at Auburn will be a problem.
I believe Texas A&M will be 9-1 with the College Football Playoff No. 4 spot right there within its sights, but it’ll need Florida to not win the SEC Championship.
I think Notre Dame really is just that good.
I know I’ve seen this movie before. Notre Dame is really just that good, wins a big game, and then has to deal with Boston College (2002, 1993).
I believe the Irish will lose at least once before the ACC Championship, with three of the last four games on the road against Boston College, North Carolina, and Wake Forest.
I think Alabama is going to roll through its last four games – at LSU, Kentucky, Auburn and at Arkansas – with frightening ease. However …
I know there’s going to be one stunning fight along the way to make it look like there’s a potential problem.
I believe the SEC Championship vs. Florida will be an all-timer of a shootout.
I think Ohio State isn’t the team it was last year, and it’s hardly a given that it’ll play for the national championship, much less win it.
I know Justin Fields is even better than he was last year when he was one of the three best players in college football.
I believe the only thing that stops the Buckeyes from getting to the CFP is an injury to Fields or a Wisconsin-like outbreak of COVID-19 late in the year.
I think Notre Dame will lose the ACC Championship.
I know there will be a very, very valid argument that both Clemson and Notre Dame would deserve to be in the College Football Playoff if they both finish with one loss to each other.
I believe, again, that Notre Dame will lose once before losing to Clemson in the ACC Championship.
I think Notre Dame will lose twice and Florida will lose once more.
I know there won’t be a Big 12 team, a second Big Ten team, or one from the Pac-12 in the CFP.
I believe BYU will be in the discussion, but the schedule won’t be strong enough to push into the top four.
I think Texas A&M is going to win out.
I know the College Football Playoff committee will give all the respect in the world to a team that beat Florida, and whose only loss is at Alabama.
I believe Texas A&M will be the No. 4 seed in the College Football Playoff.
I think the College Football Playoff committee doesn’t want an Alabama-Texas A&M rematch of the regular season game in a CFP semifinal.
I know the CFP committee isn’t going to make Ohio State the No. 1 seed just to avoid a Bama-A&M regular season rematch.
I believe this all is going to be more cut-and-dry than many might think.
I think we’re getting Ohio State vs. Clemson in the Rose Bowl.
I know it would be a huge, huge help for the Buckeyes if Alabama lost once along the way so they could get the No. 1 seed.
I believe Ohio State vs. Clemson in Pasadena on January 1st would be a damn fine way to usher in 2021.
I think Alabama is a stone-cold lock to get to the College Football Playoff and have the No. 1 seed in your 2021 Allstate Sugar Bowl.
I know Florida and Alabama would make the College Football Playoff no matter what if the two teams finish with one loss.
I believe Alabama vs. Texas A&M in New Orleans on January 1st would be a damn fine way to usher in 2021.
I think I believe it’s all going to be okay.
I know I think it’s all going to be okay.
I believe I know it’s all going to be okay.
– You have fun, fans of new big teams
– You REALLY like BYU & Cincinnati?
– Group of Five program reality
– 5 Footballey Opinions
– Sure-Thing Picks of the Century
NEXT: The College Football Cavalcade footballey opinions on footballey stuff
Five College Football Cavalcade footballey opinions and, like, other stuff
5. Oh what might have been …
Just how many storylines would we have had out of the Big Ten with the schedules in the original version?
Indiana is obviously good, and it would’ve ripped through most of its schedule, but with one problem – Sept. 4 at Wisconsin. That was going to be the opener before the Hoosiers’ cream-puff non-conference slate.
Michigan State was scheduled to go to BYU, Washington was hosting Michigan, Ohio State was supposed to go to Oregon, and Penn State would’ve had a warm-up against Kent State before going to Virginia Tech. Also, how interesting would the San Jose State game in Happy Valley have been?
Cincinnati was originally supposed to play at Nebraska at the end of September, and …
We didn’t get Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin at Lambeau Field.
4. Oh COME ON, Notre Dame
Clemson was without Trevor Lawrence after he contracted the virus, the team is trying to get it all together and stay healthy, and what happens after the loss to Notre Dame? The student body decides to hold a super-spreader event by running on the field after they were specifically and forcefully told not to.
Irish head coach Brian Kelly had this one figured out fast, getting his players to get in the locker room immediately.
Good on Notre Dame for cranking down stricter guidelines and penalties going forward, and for testing the students after being doorknobs, but … too late.
3. Yes, I do need help. Why do you ask?
I’m going to put this out in the world so we can properly prepare just in case we need to discuss later, and then we’ll all move on to bigger, more pressing issues.
Liberty just beat Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. Let’s say it beats Western Carolina, wins at NC State, and then dropkicks UMass by 40 before facing an unbeaten Coastal Carolina on the road. That would mean three road wins over the ACC and a victory over an unbeaten Sun Belt team would be on the resumé.
Let’s then say Clemson loses at Virginia Tech in the regular season finale. Your 2020 Liberty Flames would HAVE to be ranked ahead of the Clemson Tigers, and …
I’ll stop there before getting truly weird with this.
2. The moral of the story: If you’re really, really hot, wonderful things can happen for you, too.
The idea of the Cinderella story sounds nice right up until it all blows up into a flaming ball of bad sports.
You show me a massive upset on the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, and I’ll show you an 85-53 loss to North Carolina a few days later.
I’m not totally evil – not totally. I’d sort of like to see a Group of Five program get its chance in the College Football Playoff.
But for all those who want to see Cincinnati or some other GO5er in the show, I have two Sugar Bowls – a 2010 51-24 Tebow-led Florida win over the Bearcats and a 2008 41-10 Georgia win over Hawaii – I’d be happy to make you watch.
1. But playing Jacksonville State certainly would’ve helped.
Why is Scott Frost getting a free pass?
The world seems to want every big-name college football coach fired, but guys like Harbaugh, Franklin, and Smart actually won big things at a Power Five level. Frost did a wonderful job at UCF, but after losing to Northwestern, the Huskers are now 9-17 since he took over just over two years ago and 6-14 in the Big Ten.
But it’s Scott Frost, and it’s the same problem Michigan is having with Jim Harbaugh. These guys are legends at their respective schools, and the fan bases want so much to see them succeed.
Here’s the other problem. If you do launch Frost – and this goes for Harbaugh, too – you know he’s going to instantly crush it at whatever that next job is.
No pressure or anything on the two head coaches, but Nebraska hosts Penn State this week.
– You have fun, fans of new big teams
– You REALLY like BYU & Cincinnati?
– Group of Five program reality
– The College Football Playoff will be, in …
I Think, I Know, I Believe
– Sure-Thing Picks of the Century
NEXT: The sure-thing picks of the century for this week
This week’s reason I should be the next Commissioner of the Big Ten …
On my watch, Michigan, Penn State and Nebraska wouldn’t all collectively suck at college football at the exact same time.
The sure-thing, 100%, rock-solid lock, sell the house, sell the kids, no doubt about it picks of the century for this week
PICK SO FAR: 27-22 SU, 23-31 ATS
YOU KNOW HOW THIS WORKS.
If you know how these picks roll, when I’ve been THIS bad over the course fo the season, either that means the otherworldly heater is coming, or things are going to get infinitely worse.
12-1 ATS – including Green Bay over San Francisco – before the Saturday games, and 6-1 last week here.
I’m sorry for getting uppity, College Football Investment Gods … I’ll be good.
Fortunately, all these picks are correct.
– Utah -5 over UCLA
– Boston College +13.5 over Notre Dame (but Notre Dame straight up)
– Wake Forest +13.5 over North Carolina (but UNC straight up)
– Wisconsin -2.5 over Michigan
– USC -14 over Arizona
– Penn State -3 over Nebraska
– South Carolina +11.5 over Ole Miss (but Ole Miss straight up)
– Southern Miss vs. WKU UNDER on 49.5
Bet on any of all these games at BetMGM. Please.
C.O.W. shameless gimmick item …
The weekly five Overrated/Underrated aspects of the world
5. Overrated: A football game that can be replayed later.
Jeff Monken with some strong words about the Air Force game postponement on #ArmyFootball weekly radio show pic.twitter.com/K1ZaR8JS2u
— Sal Interdonato (@salinterdonato) November 6, 2020
Underrated: Thinking in any way that anyone on Air Force wouldn’t want to play Army.
4. Overrated: Liberty getting a game-winning field goal attempt blocked and returned by Virginia Tech for a walk-off score but …
Underrated: Virginia Tech called a timeout before the kick, and Alex Barbir hit a 51-yard bomb for the Liberty win.
3. Overrated: Four Seasons hotels (no really … whatever compared to other decent-to-high-end hotels)
Underrated: Four Seasons Total Landscaping (no, really, I have no interest in raking my yard that’s been sitting under a mountain of leaves for the last three weeks)
2. Overrated: (but not really) Joe Burrow, 2019 LSU: 1,864 yards, 23 TD, 3 INT (vs. Georgia Southern, Texas, NW St, Vanderbilt, Utah St)
Underrated: Kyle Trask, 2020 Florida: 1,815 yards, 22 TD, 3 INT (vs. Ole Miss, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Missouri, Georgia)
1. Overrated: The Masters
Underrated: The Masters in mid-November
Sorry if this column sucked, it wasn’t my fault …
We all just made it through a very emotional week all the way around, and we might just survive. The election? No … all the dopey tweets about trying to stop the count or count the points on some sporting event.
– You have fun, fans of new big teams
– You REALLY like BYU & Cincinnati?
– Group of Five program reality
– The College Football Playoff will be, in …
I Think, I Know, I Believe
– 5 Footballey Opinions
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